The Trump administration’s review of the AUKUS partnership isn’t expected to sink the nuclear submarine deal, but tough new terms re-negotiated to keep it afloat.
The Pentagon will weigh up whether the security pact meets US President Donald Trump’s “America First” objective, raising concerns Australia might not get the promised boats.
Under the $368 billion submarine program, Australia is set to acquire at least three nuclear-powered Virginia-class boats from the US in the early 2030s before a new fleet is built for delivery from the 2040s.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has not yet secured a meeting with Mr Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada, as he flies out on Friday.
In response to the review, Defence Minister Richard Marles pointed to the UK’s assessment of AUKUS which resulted in reaffirmed support.
But defence analyst Marcus Hellyer said the US probe wouldn’t be a “box-ticking exercise” like the UK’s had been.
He said this was down to a combination of issues, including the deal being struck under the previous administration, the US already having a submarine shortage and defence spending levels among Washington’s Indo-Pacific allies.
“He’ll (Trump) be looking to get a better deal,” Dr Hellyer told AAP.
“There is real scope here for something different to come out of it … there may be an expectation of a real commitment from Australia to increase defence spending and to put more money into the US industrial base.”
Australia paid almost $800 million to the US in February – the first of a number of payments – to help boost its submarine production.
Mr Albanese rebuffed calls from the US for Australia to lift its defence spending to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product.
Dr Hellyer said pumping more money into the US submarine industrial base wouldn’t help with the shortage in the short-term.
“Putting more money in may help in the longer term, but it is not going to have an instantaneous impact in terms of creating more submarines,” he said.
Labor views the delivery of nuclear-powered submarines as crucial to the security pact, and will not be willing to allow the rotation of US submarines through Australia without the acquisition of the boats.
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