Australians have been warned of skyrocketing heat-related deaths and plummeting property values from global warming, as the federal government prepares updated goals to cut emissions.
The long-delayed National Climate Risk Assessment contains alarming details, including an expected 444 per cent rise in heat-related deaths in Sydney under 3C of warming.
As many as three million Australians would be at high risk from cyclones, flooding and erosion by 2090, reflecting densely packed populations living along coastlines.
Losses in Australian property values could balloon to $770 billion by 2090 if little effort was made to adapt and relocate to lower-risk locations.
Average global temperatures have already risen 1.3C above pre-industrial levels and are set to hit 2.7C under current policies.
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen acknowledged many Australians would find the report “confronting” as he repeatedly stressed the economic opportunities of clean industries and decarbonisation.
“If we take action, we can avoid the worst of the impacts,” he told reporters in Canberra on Monday.
“If we take action, we can create jobs and investment right across Australia.”
Australia and other signatories to a global climate pact are getting ready to update their goals to slash emissions this month.
Australia’s highly anticipated 2035 targets are expected to be revealed in coming days after the federal minister confirmed he had received advice from the independent Climate Change Authority – guidance the government must consider before setting its goals.
Updated plans to curb carbon pollution come as the United States winds back its climate ambitions under the Trump administration.
Mr Bowen refused to comment directly on the policies of other countries, but said the majority remained committed to net zero “in some form”.
Monday’s risk assessment warns no community will be spared from the impacts of climate change, suggesting the effects will span areas as diverse as agriculture, health and national security.
“Future changes in Australia’s climate will not occur gradually or smoothly,” the report’s overview warns.
The first-of-its-kind document modelled how global warming will impact individual communities, the nation’s economy and the environment under three different scenarios of warming.
If global temperatures increase by an average of 3C compared to pre-industrial levels, the report predicts a dramatic spike in the number of Australians who will die during heatwaves.
Floods are also expected to become more frequent as sea levels rise.
Tropical cyclones are forecast to hit Australia less often, but there is a possibility they will become more severe and shift slightly farther south.
Some of the national forecasts are also highly uncertain.
Under 3C of warming, the amount of time spent in drought, for example, is given a range spanning from a 15 per cent reduction to an 89 per cent increase.
Forecasts at a local level are more precise.
Climate Council chief executive officer Amanda McKenzie said the findings “should keep ministers up at night”.
“The first step is legislating the strongest possible 2035 climate target and stopping new polluting projects.”
The government is also releasing the National Adaptation Plan, a separate report outlining how Australia can mitigate some of the risks posed by global warming.
But it warns some risks, such as sea level rises, are unavoidable and Australians will have to learn to live with the change.
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