Mortgage holders could receive their first back-to-back interest rate cuts in more than five years, with the Reserve Bank widely expected to lower rates.
The central bank’s monetary policy board meeting, which begins on Monday, tops the week’s economic agenda, although Donald Trump’s tariffs could once again roil markets.
The US president paused his sweeping “liberation day” tariffs for 90 days to allow extra time for individual countries to negotiate a better deal.
But with only three agreements struck – with the UK, China and Vietnam – it’s unclear what the White House will decree when the tariff deadline expires on Wednesday, US time.
ANZ Bank economists Bansi Madhavani and Brian Martin said it was likely the deadline for countries involved in negotiations would be extended, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent signalling he expected more deals to be wrapped up by September 1.
“In the unlikely event that reciprocal tariffs are fully implemented or expanded, we expect downside risks to US growth and upside risks to inflation to intensify,” they said.
But CBA chief economist Luke Yeaman said there was a high risk Mr Trump could lose patience over the slow progress of negotiations and simply reinstate unilateral trade tariffs.
“Depending where he sets that (tariff) rate, he could set off another round of quite significant market volatility in the July/August period,” Mr Yeaman said.
Given the backdrop of ongoing economic uncertainty and following a softer-than-expected start to the year for the Australian consumer, markets have almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Reserve Bank on Tuesday.
Weaker-than-expected retail sales figures released on Wednesday convinced ANZ’s head of Australian economics, Adam Boyton, to join the other big four banks in bringing his rate cut prediction forward to July.
While economists are less certain than the market that there will be a cut, almost nine in 10 surveyed by comparison website Finder agreed a reduction was on the cards.
Independent economist Saul Eslake was one of 30 economists surveyed who predicted a rate cut, with just four expecting the Reserve Bank to hold the rate steady at 3.85 per cent.
“Underlying inflation is now below the mid-point of the target band and for what it’s worth, headline inflation is only just above the bottom of the target band and economic growth is still sluggish, so there is no need for monetary policy to be as restrictive as it still is,” Mr Eslake said.
A cut of 25 basis points would save the median mortgage holder with a $600,000 debt about $90 a month on interest repayments.
More than three-quarters of the economists surveyed also predicted another rate cut in August, which would bring the cumulative reduction to 100 basis points since February and represent the sharpest easing of monetary policy in more than 12 years.
With Wall Street closed on Friday for Independence Day, investors were left to consider the impact as President Trump signed a sweeping spending bill into law.
The S&P 500 gained 51.94 points, or 0.83 per cent, to finish Thursday at 6,279.36. The Nasdaq Composite gained 207.97 points, or 1.02 per cent, to 20,601.10 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 344.11 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 44,828.53.
Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump’s signature bill, which would add $US3.4 trillion ($A5.2 trillion) to the nation’s $US36.2 trillion debt.
Australian share futures were steady, finishing at 3,175 points.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished Friday up 7.2 points, or 0.08 per cent, at 8,603.0 while the All Ordinaries climbed 8.3 points, or 0.09 per cent, to 8,841.9.
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