Australia could be forced to re-pitch its case for the AUKUS security pact to the US as critics seize on the Trump administration’s month-long review to call for the plan to be dumped.
The Pentagon will examine whether the pact is in line with US President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy amid concerns in Washington the deal could leave the nation short of submarines.
Under the agreement, Australia will acquire three nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines from the US in the early 2030s before a new fleet of boats is built for delivery from the 2040s for $368 billion.
The three-nation deal was signed between the US, Australia and the UK in 2021 under former prime minister Scott Morrison and the Biden administration.
Mr Morrison said the US defence department was “well within its remit” to launch the review and it was not unlike a UK assessment after the election of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“Now is the time for Australia to make the case again,” he said.
“We have a good case to make in both our own interests and those of our AUKUS partners, especially in the US.”
Defence Minister Richard Marles confirmed the government had known of the review for weeks and he was confident the AUKUS agreement would proceed under the Trump administration.
Asked if there was a “plan B” in case the agreement was torn up, he said Australia needed to stick with the existing deal to acquire nuclear submarines.
“Chopping and changing guarantees you will never have the capability … there is a plan here, we are sticking to it and we’re going to deliver it,” Mr Marles told ABC Radio.
Critics of AUKUS point to the lagging production of boats in the US and have warned the deal might jeopardise the US Navy’s capabilities.
Australia handed over almost $800 million to the US in February – the first of a number of payments – to help boost its submarine production.
The 2025 Lowy Institute Poll, to be released in full on Monday, found two-thirds of Australians either somewhat or strongly backed acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.
Executive director Michael Fullilove said the government needed to ensure the Trump administration understood the agreement was also in America’s national interest.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is yet to confirm a meeting with Mr Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada.
Australian National University naval studies expert Jennifer Parker said the nation should be using the opportunity to restate its position.
“It would be hard to make an argument that it is in the US interest to fundamentally change or cancel AUKUS,” she said.
“Our think-tank ecosystem and media can be quite alarmist on this issue … we have agency, we have autonomy, we’re a player in this and we need to continue to highlight how important we are to them.”
But former Labor prime minister Paul Keating, a strong AUKUS critic, said the review might be the moment “Washington saves Australia from itself”.
Former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who has also criticised the agreement, said Australia should follow in the footsteps of the UK and US and conduct a review.
Co-Chair of the Friends of Australia Caucus, US Congressman Joe Courtney, said walking away from Australia and the UK would have “far-reaching ramifications on our trustworthiness on the global stage”.
Opposition defence spokesman Angus Taylor said if AUKUS fell over, all nations would pay a heavy price.
“The coalition stands ready to work with Labor to make sure that AUKUS is a success,” he said.
Greens defence spokesman David Shoebridge said it was time for the government to open an inquiry into the “dud deal”.
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