The dollar has fallen and US equity futures have slid after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration threatened him with a criminal indictment, stoking investor worries about the central bank’s independence.
S&P 500 futures were down 0.5 per cent, while European futures slipped 0.1 per cent in Asia on Monday morning and the dollar was roughly 0.2 per cent lower against most major peers, sending it below 158 yen and to $1.1660 per euro.
Traders said the news was unsettling, though the immediate implication for interest rates was not clear.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury futures rose three ticks for an implied yield of 4.15 per cent, which is about a basis point below Friday’s cash market close.
Fed fund futures have added in about three basis points more in cuts this year, which is small but points to the risk that the Fed gets pushed into being more aggressive.
Gold struck a record high of more than $4,600 an ounce, as unrest in Iran lifted precious metal prices and supported oil.
On Sunday, Powell said the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment and served grand jury subpoenas over Congressional testimony he gave regarding a Fed building renovation project, an action he called a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates.
The developments amount to a dramatic escalation in the fight between Powell and US President Donald Trump, which dates back to the banker’s first years as chair in 2018.
“Trump is pulling at the loose threads of central bank independence,” said Andrew Lilley, chief rates strategist at Barrenjoey, an investment bank based in Sydney.
“The only reason that he’s taking these steps is that he knows that he’s not going to take control of the Fed, so he wants to exert as much undue pressure as he can.
“Investors won’t be happy about it, but it shows actually Trump has no other levers to pull. The cash rate will stay what the majority of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) wants them to be.”
The dollar had the sharpest reaction, falling even against typically risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars and helping the yen to escape from intervention-risk territory on the weak side of 158 per dollar.
“This open warfare between the Fed and the US administration … it’s clearly not a good look for the US dollar,” said National Australia Bank’s head of currency strategy Ray Attrill.
Elsewhere, Trump’s threats to intervene in Iran, where protests against the clerical establishment appear to be intensifying, helped oil prices hold recent gains and underlined the swirling geopolitical risks for the year ahead.
After sharp gains in recent sessions, benchmark Brent crude futures were down about 40 cents to $62.90 a barrel.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan crept 0.5 per cent higher, while Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.
The second full week of the New Year will include US inflation data, trade figures from China and a slew of US earnings beginning with JPMorgan Chase and BNY on Tuesday.
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