Australia is tracking comfortably towards meeting its electricity needs as coal plants retire, provided new solar, wind, storage and transmission comes online without delays.
The operator of the national electricity grid, which serves the five eastern states and the ACT, describes a “healthy” pipeline of new investment to keep the lights on over the next decade.
Yet Australian Energy Market Operator’s latest reliability snapshot does nod to recent delays in energy infrastructure rollout.
Near-term reliability gaps in Queensland and South Australia start to look more likely when the operator only factors in development that has already ticked off planning approval, finance and other AEMO-determined “commitment criteria”.
Even with those conservative assumptions on project delivery, the market operator still believes the outlook for grid reliability has improved compared with 2024.
Additionally, the retirement of large power stations is the primary trigger for reliability concerns.
To meet national climate commitments, Australia has been transitioning its electricity grid from emissions-intensive coal to renewable energy sources backed up by storage.
Thursday’s assessment suggests the transition is broadly heading in the right direction, reflecting generous investment in new generation and storage helped along by state and federal policies.
A record 4.4GW of new generation and storage was commissioned in the year to June, and between 5.2GW and 10.1GW are expected to be commissioned each year over the next five years.
AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman said ongoing reliability was dependent on energy projects being delivered on time and as promised.
This includes the rooftop solar, batteries, electric vehicles and other smart devices the market operator considers a “valuable resource” for the future energy system, if well co-ordinated.
“The 10-year investment pipeline to manage energy reliability is healthy,” Mr Westerman said.
“Considering the large volume of generation retirements over the next decade, the timely delivery of new generation, storage and transmission, along with the operation of consumer energy resources to support reliability, remain critical.”
Delayed planning assessments, transmission build-outs, grid connections and environmental assessments have been well documented and rank as top concerns for renewable investors.
Environmental law reform and other opportunities to clear the way for faster clean energy delivery are expected to be topics of discussion at the federal Economic Reform Roundtable underway in Canberra.
The market operator also expects demand to ramp up in the next few years, pencilling in a 21 per cent increase in operational consumption in the next decade.
This forecast growth reflects “rapid expansion” of data centres, ongoing business electrification and more industrial energy users in general.
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