Moody’s has downgraded its credit rating of the United States by a notch to “Aa1” from “Aaa”, citing rising debt and interest “that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns”.

The rating agency had been the last among major ratings agencies to keep a top, triple-A rating for US sovereign debt, though it had lowered its outlook in late 2023 due to wider fiscal deficit and higher interest payments.

“Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs,” Moody’s said on Friday, as it changed its outlook on the US to “stable” from “negative”.

Since his return to the White House on January 20, President Donald Trump has pledged to balance the US budget while his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has repeatedly said the current administration aims to lower US government funding costs.

The administration’s mix of revenue-generating tariffs and spending cuts through Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency have highlighted a keen awareness of the risks posed by mounting government debt, which, if unchecked, could trigger a bond market rout and hinder the administration’s ability to pursue its agenda.

The downgrade comes as Trump’s sweeping tax bill failed to clear a key procedural hurdle on Friday, as hardline Republicans demanding deeper spending cuts blocked the measure in a rare political setback for the Republican president in Congress.

“We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration,” Moody’s said, while forecasting federal debt burden to rise to about 134 per cent of GDP by 2035, compared with 98 per cent in 2024.

The cut follows a downgrade by rival Fitch, which in August 2023 also cut the US sovereign rating by one notch, citing expected fiscal deterioration and repeated down-to-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills.

US President Donald Trump says that over the next two to three weeks US officials will be sending letters to countries outlining “what they will be paying to do business in the United States”.

Trump, speaking in the capital of the United Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi on the last stage of a four-day tour of Gulf countries, did not clarify further what that meant.

China and the United States announced a truce in their trade war on Monday after talks in Geneva, which Trump mentioned in his Abu Dhabi remarks along with a separate trade deal with the United Kingdom.

“At a certain point over the next two to three weeks I think (US Treasury Secretary) Scott (Bessent) and (US Commerce Secretary) Howard (Lutnick) will be sending letters out … telling people what they’ll be paying to do business in the United States.”

He said countries could appeal it and that US officials would not be able to meet with all the “150 countries that want to make a deal”.

The US also agreed a limited bilateral trade agreement with the UK last week, which leaves in place Trump’s 10 per cent tariffs on UK exports while cutting higher tariffs on steel and cars.

Abu Dhabi was Trump’s last stop on a Gulf tour focused on business deals worth hundred of billions of dollars that could boost the US economy and create jobs.

Brazil, the world’s largest chicken exporter, has confirmed its first outbreak of bird flu on a poultry farm, triggering a country-wide trade ban from China and state-wide restrictions for other major consumers.

The outbreak in southern Brazil was identified at a farm supplying Vibra Foods, a Brazilian operation backed by Tyson Foods, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Vibra and Tyson did not immediately respond to questions. 

Vibra has 15 processing plants in Brazil and exports to more than 60 countries, according to its website.

Brazil exported $US10 billion ($A16 billion) of chicken meat in 2024, accounting for about 35 per cent of global trade. 

Much of that came from meat processors BRF and JBS, which ship to 150 countries.

China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the main destinations for Brazil’s chicken exports.

Brazil’s Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Friday China had banned poultry imports from the country for 60 days. 

Under agreements with Japan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, he said a trade ban would only restrict shipments from the affected state and, eventually, just the municipality in question.

The outbreak occurred in the city of Montenegro in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, the farm ministry said. 

The state accounts for 15 per cent of Brazilian poultry production and exports, pork and poultry group ABPA said in July 2024.

BRF has five processing plants operating in the state. 

JBS has also invested in local chicken processing plants under its Seara brand.

State officials said the outbreak of H5N1 bird flu is already responsible for the death of 17,000 farm chickens, either directly from the disease or due to cautionary culling.

Veterinary officials are isolating the area of the outbreak in Montenegro and hunting for more cases in an initial 10km radius, the state agricultural secretariat said.

Favaro, the farm minister, said Brazil was working to contain the outbreak and negotiate a loosening of trade restrictions faster than the two months agreed in protocols.

“If we manage to eliminate the outbreak, we think it’s possible to re-establish a normal trade flow before the 60 days are up, including with China,” Favaro said in an interview aired on CNN Brasil.

Chicken products shipped by Thursday will not be affected by trade restrictions, he added.

The ministry said in a statement that it was officially notifying the World Organisation for Animal Health.

Bird flu has swept through the US poultry industry since 2022, killing about 170 million chickens, turkeys and other birds, severely affecting production of meat and eggs.

Bird flu has also infected nearly 70 people in the US, with one death, since 2024. 

Most of those infections have been among farm workers exposed to infected poultry or cows.

The further spread of the disease raises the risk that bird flu could become more transmissible to humans.

By contrast, Argentina was able to isolate a February 2023 outbreak and start resuming exports slowly the next month.

“All necessary measures to control the situation were quickly adopted, and the situation is under control and being monitored by government agencies,” Brazil’s poultry industry group ABPA said in a statement.

JBS referred questions about the outbreak to ABPA.

BRF CEO Miguel Gularte told analysts on an earnings call that he was confident Brazilian health protocols were robust and the situation would be quickly overcome.

Brazil, which exported more than five million metric tonnes of chicken products last year, first confirmed outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian flu among wild birds in May 2023 in at least seven states.

The disease is not transmitted through the consumption of poultry meat or eggs, the Agriculture Ministry said.

“The Brazilian and world population can rest assured about the safety of inspected products, and there are no restrictions on their consumption,” the ministry said.

Disgraced war veteran Ben Roberts-Smith faces an uphill battle to take his defamation fight to the High Court, but prominent legal sources believe he has a chance.

The Victoria Cross recipient sued Nine newspapers and journalists Nick McKenzie and Chris Masters over their reports in 2018 which claimed he had committed war crimes.

He suffered a bruising loss in 2023 when Justice Anthony Besanko found the claims the former soldier was responsible for the murder of four unarmed civilians were substantially true.

The former SAS corporal launched an appeal against the findings in 2024, which was dismissed by the full Federal Court on Friday after more than a year of consideration. 

Within an hour of the decision being handed down, Roberts-Smith indicated he would immediately seek to challenge the decision in the High Court.

“I continue to maintain my innocence and deny these egregious, spiteful allegations,” he said in a statement. 

“Sunlight is said to be the best disinfectant, and I believe one day soon the truth will prevail.”

The first hurdle for the former special forces soldier will be obtaining special leave to appeal to the High Court, defamation barrister Roger Rasmussen told AAP. 

“Special leave is always extremely difficult (to obtain) in any case … because it’s not an appeal as such,” he said, adding that he has no knowledge of the case. 

“You’ve got to show some special reason for why the High Court should be entertaining your application.”

The reasons may be the interest of justice or a legal point of law, which in Roberts-Smith’s case would relate to the standard of proof. 

A silk with experience appearing before the High Court told AAP there was nearly no chance Roberts-Smith could succeed in arguing his appeal was in the interest of justice, because four judges had reached the same conclusion.

He said the application for special leave would require creativity and the soldier’s legal team would need to “change tack”. 

“It’s not an impossible task,” he concluded.

Another senior legal figure suggested Roberts-Smith’s team might push for an appeal based on Justice Nye Perram’s refusal to admit evidence from Roberts-Smith’s ex-lover on an interlocutory application.

Justice Perram is due to hand down the reasons for his decision in due course. 

“There was a case last week where the High Court overturned a decision because of similar misconduct,” the legal figure said. 

She said she was left “uneasy” with the outcome because a court had ruled it was satisfied war crimes occurred when Roberts-Smith has not been charged by a prosecuting authority.

Mr Rasmussen said the attention given to the case could alone be sufficient to obtain special leave to appeal.

“The High Court doesn’t usually worry too much about that, but they might consider it’s of sufficient importance … because they are pretty serious allegations,” he noted.

If Roberts-Smith obtains special leave, Mr Rasmussen said it could take months for the High Court to vet the application and decide whether to extend an invitation to appeal.

He was confident the former SAS corporal’s lawyers were already preparing their submissions.

The appeal decision handed down by Justices Perram, Anna Katzmann and Geoffrey Kennett is yet to be published. 

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State and federal Liberals face a mission to restore trust in the party’s brand after enduring setbacks on multiple fronts.

As the federal party picks itself off the canvas after a thumping election defeat, the hits keep coming in key states.

Predictions that Victoria would swing hard to the coalition on the back of anger at unpopular Labor premier Jacinta Allan proved wildly off the mark.

And the state Liberals on Friday again hit the headlines for the wrong reasons when former opposition leader John Pesutto was ordered to pay $2.3 million in costs after defaming first-term MP Moira Deeming.

The scale of the final bill has raised internal fears about Mr Pesutto’s ability to pay, with MPs ineligible to sit in Victorian parliament if they declare bankruptcy.

Further north, the embattled NSW division of the party and a former state director are being sued over bungled council nominations that left more than 140 candidates off ballots in 2024.

The party missed the deadline to nominate candidates for local elections.

Those left off ballots included sitting councillors in party heartland such as Sydney’s northern beaches, where Tony Abbott and Bronwyn Bishop enjoyed long reigns as federal MPs.

In South Australia, the Liberals are at long odds to return to government at the 2026 election after being reduced to 13 lower house seats.

And it’s an even bleaker outlook in Western Australia where the state Liberals recently lost a third-straight election and face a battle to win power at the next poll.

Hopes of a nation-wide revival had been high in 2024 when Queensland’s Liberal National Party and the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal Party both won elections and the federal coalition led in the polls.

The Tasmanian Liberal government retained power in 2024 but the island state’s premier Jeremy Rockliff has faced set backs since, including the loss of two senior ministers including his deputy premier, forcing a reshuffle.

Support for the party has plummeted among millennial and Gen Z voters, many of whom have turned to minor parties or independents.

At a federal level, the party hopes to win back female voters under the leadership of Sussan Ley.

“The number of women supporting us is declining and I want to rule the line under that,” Ms Ley said after prevailing in a leadership contest.

The United Arab Emirates and the United States have agreed to create a path for the Gulf country to buy some of the most advanced artificial intelligence semiconductors from US companies, a major win for Abu Dhabi’s efforts to become a global AI hub.

President Donald Trump made the announcement as he wrapped his Gulf tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, with a pledge by oil power Abu Dhabi – the UAE’s capital and richest emirate – to hike the value of its energy investments in the US to $US440 billion ($A685 billion) in the next decade.

He pledged on Thursday to strengthen US ties with the UAE, announcing deals totalling over $US200 billion, including a $US14.5 billion commitment from Etihad Airways to invest in 28 American-made Boeing aircraft.

“We work together and the money that’s made here comes back to us,” Trump told Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed during a news conference in Abu Dhabi on Friday, touting the business relationship between the US and UAE.

“We’ve made it work, and you know they were being wooed by others. But there’s no more wooing, I think we’re in pretty good shape,” he said.

“Absolutely,” the crown prince said.

The AI deal, finalised on Thursday, is a boost for the UAE, which has been trying to balance its relations with its longtime ally the US and its largest trading partner China.

It reflects the Trump administration’s confidence that the chips can be managed securely, in part by requiring data centres be managed by US companies.

“Yesterday the two countries also agreed to create a path for UAE to buy some of the world’s most advanced AI semiconductors from American companies, a very big contract,” Trump said.

The UAE energy investment commitment was announced during a presentation by Sultan Al Jaber, Abu Dhabi state energy giant ADNOC’s chief executive, to Trump during the last stage of his tour that has drawn huge financial commitments from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The enterprise value of UAE investments in the US energy sector would be boosted to $US440 billion by 2035 from $US70 billion now, Al Jaber told Trump, adding US energy firms will also invest in the UAE.

Already in March, when senior UAE officials met Trump, the UAE had committed to a 10-year, $US1.4 trillion investment framework in the US in sectors including energy, AI and manufacturing to deepen reciprocal ties.

“We’re making great progress for the $US1.4 (trillion) that UAE has announced it intends to spend in the United States,” Trump said on his last stop on a Gulf tour that has focused, at least publicly, on investment deals, not security crises in the Middle East, including Israel’s war in Gaza.

However, Trump did engage in some diplomacy on his whirlwind meetings with some of the world’s biggest energy producers.

He met with Syria’s new interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh and said he would order the lifting of sanctions on Syria at the behest of Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, a major US policy shift.

European stocks look set to cap a strong week with gains, as upbeat earnings helped sustain the rally sparked by a US-China trade truce, while oil prices remain relatively low, further supporting stocks and bonds.

It has been a positive week for global share markets as investors cheered a tariff truce between the United States and China that greatly reduces the risk of a global recession.

Europe’s STOXX 600 rose 0.57 per cent on Friday, and was up 1.6 per cent on the week, set for its fifth straight week of gains, helped by luxury group Richemont’s seven per cent climb after it reported strong quarterly sales.

MSCI’s main gauge of Asia-Pacific stocks ex-Japan rose more than three per cent this week, and the S&P500 is up 4.5 per cent, with futures pointing to further gains at Friday’s open.

The US data calendar is lighter for the rest of the day, though there will be the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and US import prices data for April.

However, there was enough uncertainty to keep investors cautious heading into the weekend.

“The markets confront a weekend with less risk of carrying open positions than last, with no major trade talks or significant risks on the calendar,” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com.

“However, there is always a slight risk-off bias going into the weekend during a Trump presidency, with a nasty downside surprise at the Monday open only ever one social media post away.”

Oil prices have been choppier this week, rising on the US China deal, before falling sharply on Thursday on increased supply pressure from an OPEC+ output hike and the prospect of an Iranian nuclear deal.

Brent futures were down slightly on Friday after a two per cent fall on Thursday, and were set to end the week just 0.8 per cent higher.

Oil prices – low by recent standards – are helping support expectations that inflation is easing, as did US data from Thursday, which did not show any dramatic impact from US tariffs, helping both shares and bonds.

US core retail sales were soft and the producer prices fell unexpectedly in April, as markets added to the bets for a total easing of 57 basis points from the Federal Reserve in 2025, from 49 bps before.

“The relief from softer US retail sales and PPI was palpable in the bond market yesterday and overnight,” said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale.

“This poured cold water on the (global) bond sell-off and put the brakes on the hawkish repricing of the Fed outlook.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.41 per cent, extending a 7 bps drop overnight, and euro zone government bond yields also slid.

Of course, it might be just a matter of time before the tariff impact starts to show up in the hard data. Walmart , the world’s largest retailer, said it would have to start raising prices later in May due to the high cost of tariffs.

Lower US yields left currency traders selling the dollar, if not too dramatically.

It was last down 0.27 per cent on the yen at 145.3, while the euro was 0.12 per cent higher at $1.1198.

In precious metals, gold prices fell 1.23 per cent to $US3,200 an ounce after rallying two per cent overnight.

For the week, they are down 3.7 per cent.

The Australian share market has clocked its highest close in three months after eight straight sessions of gains.

The S&P/ASX200 retreated after an early spike but finished 38.2 points, or 0.46 per cent, higher at 8,335.7.

The broader All Ordinaries rose 41.6 points, or 0.49 per cent, to 8,571.4.

The top-200 is within three per cent of its all-time peak after local shares rallied on this week’s US-China tariff de-escalation and a likely Reserve Bank interest rate cut next week.

The Commonwealth Bank also pipped a new intraday all-time high of $172.92, but ran into heavy selling to trade back below $170.

The Australian dollar is buying 64.32 US cents, down slightly from 64.39 on Thursday afternoon after a surprise slip in US producer prices weighed on the greenback.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers wants to ensure Australia’s lowest paid workers don’t go backwards, but stresses a real wage rise must not harm the economy.

In its formal submission to the Fair Work Commission’s annual review of minimum and award wages, the federal Labor government said those workers should receive an “economically sustainable real wage increase”.

The government did not nominate a specific figure, in keeping with past practice.

Real wages growth means workers’ pay packets increase faster than prices rise in the economy, ensuring they are better off overall.

But without accompanying growth in productivity, wage increases exceeding inflation could drive prices higher.

The government’s expanded emphasis on “sustainable” real wages growth in this year’s submission, compared to the previous year, dovetails with Dr Chalmers’ comments that there will be a greater focus on boosting productivity during Labor’s second term.

Dr Chalmers said he consulted with Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock to make sure its submission was consistent with inflation staying within the central bank’s target band of two to three per cent.

“We want to make sure that this real wage increase is provided consistent with our other economic objectives, (including) getting inflation down,” he told reporters in Brisbane.

“We have made a lot of progress there, but it’s not mission accomplished, because people are still under pressure.”

About 2.9 million employees are affected by the review, with the majority of those on industry and business specific awards as well as a smaller proportion on the minimum wage.

The Australian Council of Trade Unions went further than the government, calling for a rise of 4.5 per cent – higher than last year’s increase of 3.75 per cent, when inflation was still running hotter than the RBA’s target.

Business groups are calling for a more modest increase of between 2-2.6 per cent.

In its submission, the Australian Industry Group said the economy was in a fragile position, exacerbated by sluggish productivity and uncertainty caused by US tariffs, and an excessive wage rise could drive up unemployment.

The RBA has expressed concern Australia’s tight labour market could push up inflation, with higher pay rises flowing through to cost pressures for businesses.

In the long term, it is hard for an economy to support real wage growth without productivity growth, said the central bank’s head of economic analysis Michael Plumb in a speech at an Australian Business Economists conference in February.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed the unemployment rate remained at a historically low 4.1 per cent in April. That has helped annual real wages grow for the past 18 months.

But Australia’s productivity growth has cratered in recent years.

“The government recognises the importance of lifting productivity to drive real wages growth over the long term and is implementing a significant productivity agenda,” its submission stated.

The Fair Work Commission has delivered $143 a week in minimum wage increases since the Albanese government came to power in 2022.

Increasing awards and the minimum wage above growth in market wages should also help narrow the gender pay gap given women are disproportionately represented in lower-paid, award-reliant jobs.

A landmark ruling by the commission in April meant workers in predominantly feminised industries such as health and child care would receive substantial pay rises of up to 35 per cent.

Dr Chalmers said the government had provided billions of dollars to help fund previous pay rises for child care workers, but would not confirm whether taxpayers would be further called upon to help employers following the ruling.

The Fair Work Commission is due to hand down its annual wage review decision in June.

Disgraced veteran Ben Roberts-Smith has pledged to continue to fight after an appeal court upheld findings that he was likely a war criminal.

The Victoria Cross recipient – who faces a multimillion-dollar legal bill – was not present in court as his defamation appeal over 2018 newspaper reports was tossed out on Friday.

In a statement, he said he would immediately seek to fight the decision in the High Court.

“I continue to maintain my innocence and deny these egregious, spiteful allegations,” he wrote.

“Sunlight is said to be the best disinfectant, and I believe one day soon the truth will prevail.”

The high-profile veteran sued Nine newspapers and journalists Nick McKenzie and Chris Masters for defamation over their reports in 2018, which claimed he had committed war crimes.

But in 2023, Justice Anthony Besanko found the claims that Roberts-Smith was responsible for the murder of four unarmed civilians when deployed in Afghanistan were substantially true.

Roberts-Smith launched an appeal against findings, which was heard in the Federal Court over 10 days in February 2024.

After a year of waiting, Justices Nye Perram, Anna Katzmann and Geoffrey Kennett dismissed his appeal on Friday.

“We are unanimously of the opinion that the evidence was sufficiently cogent to support the findings that the appellant murdered four Afghan men,” they wrote in a summary of their judgment.

Their reasons are expected to be published in due course.

Nine’s lawyers were seen hugging and celebrating after the decision, which Nine Publishing managing director Tory Maguire welcomed as an “emphatic win”.

“Today is also a great day for investigative journalism and underscores why it remains highly valued by the Australian people,” she said while heralding McKenzie’s “outstanding” work.

McKenzie expressed his gratitude to SAS soldiers and said it “should not be left to journalists and brave soldiers to stand up to a war criminal”.

“Australian authorities must hold Ben Roberts-Smith accountable before our criminal justice system,” the award-winning journalist said.

Roberts-Smith denies any wrongdoing and has not been charged.

However, the dismissal of his appeal could clear a path for a criminal investigation by the Australian Federal Police and the Office of the Special Investigator.

The decision also paves the way for Roberts-Smith to pay out upwards of $30 million in legal costs from the defamation proceedings in addition to the cost of the 10-day appeal.

He first rose to prominence in 2011 after he was awarded Australia’s highest military honour, the Victoria Cross, for single-handedly taking out machine-gun posts to protect pinned-down colleagues in Afghanistan.

Later named Australian Father of the Year, the former SAS corporal’s reputation was tarnished by Nine’s explosive reports in 2018 alleging he was complicit in war crimes.

In the decision upheld by the Full Court on Friday, Justice Besanko determined the former SAS corporal machine-gunned a man with a prosthetic leg – which he then encouraged soldiers to use as a drinking vessel.

On the same day in 2009, Roberts-Smith ordered the execution of an elderly prisoner to “blood the rookie” during a raid on a compound known as Whiskey 108, the judge found.

He also found Roberts-Smith kicked a handcuffed prisoner off a cliff in 2012 and ordered another prisoner be shot dead at another date.

The allegations – as well as claims Roberts-Smith had engaged in a campaign of bullying against a fellow Australian soldier – were found to be proven on the balance of probabilities.

The appeal court also rejected the disgraced war veteran’s bid to reopen his appeal over claims McKenzie had unfair access to his legal strategy.

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