After a week of global financial turmoil following Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policy, the only economic certainty is further uncertainty.

Stock markets plummeted and rebounded before falling again after the US president’s decision to impose tariffs, which he then walked back for a 90-day pause.

As the US and China engage in tit-for-tat tariffs, the fallout from the economic measures will continue to cast a shadow over movements in the domestic economy.

While the risk of a US recession is put at almost 50-50, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said Australia would be likely to avoid a similar situation.,,

“For Australia, the direct hit to our industries that have tariffs on them will likely be a less than 0.2 per cent drag on GDP,” he said.

“Only five per cent of our exports go to the US (and) a lower Australian dollar is acting as a shock absorber to the hit from the tariffs.”

Further insight is expected on Tuesday into why the Reserve Bank decided to hold interest rates at 4.1 per cent, when the minutes for the central bank’s last meeting  are released.

The meeting was held just days before Mr Trump unveiled the extent of his tariff agenda, but it is expected risks from the global economy could feature in the board’s discussions.

Governor Michele Bullock sought to allay concerns stemming from the tariffs in a speech on Thursday night, but said it was too early for the Reserve Bank to determine its response on interest rates.

While a 25 basis point cut is predicted at the bank’s next meeting on May 20, the tariff uncertainty had led to some forecasts of a 50 basis point drop.

Each 25 basis point cut would shave about $90 off monthly repayments on a typical, $600,000 mortgage.

Despite some suggestions the Reserve Bank could call an emergency meeting, Dr Oliver said the situation had not become so bad it was warranted.

“The local financial markets are functioning well and the banking system is well capitalised with no signs of unusual stress,” he said.

“In fact, an emergency meeting may just create a sense of panic. but we are of the view that the RBA will cut in May by 0.25 per cent.”

Employment figures for March are set to be released on Thursday, with economists forecasting a slight uptick in the jobless rate.

The Commonwealth Bank says the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1 per cent to 4.2 per cent, also predicting a further 45,000 jobs to have been created in March.

However, data from the March figures is set to be affected by the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, with the natural disaster having hit southeast Queensland and northern NSW during the survey period.

Wall Street investors have meanwhile closed the book on a turbulent week of wild swings driven by the chaos of Mr Trump’s multi-front trade war, with the major indices posting solid gains on Friday as big banks kicked off first-quarter earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 619.05 points, or 1.56 per cent, to 40,212.71, the S&P 500 gained 95.31 points, or 1.81 per cent, to 5,363.36 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 337.15 points, or 2.06 per cent, to 16,724.46.

Australian share futures lifted 18 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 17,112.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 lost 63.1 points, or 0.82 per cent, to 7646.5 on Friday, while the broader All Ordinaries fell 60.2 points, or 0.76 per cent, to 7853.7.

The cast of The Breakfast Club have reflected on their memories of shooting the coming-of-age film 40 years after its release.

The film about five high school students on detention became a cult classic after its release in 1985.

Molly Ringwald, who played popular schoolgirl Claire Standish in the film, confirmed it had been around four decades since all five members had reunited.

Ringwald appeared at Chicago Comic And Entertainment Expo (C2E2) on Saturday alongside her castmates Emilio Estevez (who played Andrew Clark), Judd Nelson (John Bender), Anthony Michael Hall (Brian Johnson) and Ally Sheedy (Allison Reynolds).

“I feel really very emotional and moved to have us all together,” Ringwald said.

“This is the first time that Emilio has joined us. We don’t have to use the cardboard cutout any more, because he’s here.”

Ringwald, 57, revealed that she showed the film to her eldest daughter when she was 10 and said “it changed my parenting, watching it with her”.

“A lot of this stuff went over her head, thankfully, but how it spoke to her, which character she identified with and why, it opened up this incredible conversation,” she said.

“And I mean if you would have told me that, when I was 16 years old, one day I would be watching that movie with my 10-year-old and (that would) change the way that I parent. I mean, it’s just mind-blowing.

“And then I watched the movie recently with my 15-year-olds, little more age appropriate, and I have to say that they didn’t pick up their phones once, which to me, was, that was a win.”

Estevez, who played athlete Andrew said the reunion “just felt like it was time”.

“Somebody told me that Molly said, ‘What, does Emilio just not like us?’ And that broke my heart. Of course, no, I love all of them.”

Nelson, 65, said director John Hughes “explained to us the differences between the young and old”.

“I always felt in a weird way like that the work was half done, that at some point we would all get back together, because there were too many questions by everyone – ‘What happens on Monday?’,” he said.

The question is asked by Hall’s character Brian in a part of the film where the schoolchildren, all from different social groups, become friends and ponder whether their bond will remain intact when they return to school.

“The film is about the fact that everyone has to make that decision for themselves – what happens on Monday,” Nelson said.

“But, in a way, Hughes has been telling us ‘Think for yourself, think for yourself, think for yourself’.”

Britain will expand financing support for exporters by stg20 billion ($A42 billion) including those affected by US tariffs, in an effort to give them stability and certainty in what it described as a new era of global trade.

The tariffs, introduced by US President Donald Trump, have deepened uncertainty for UK businesses about their exposure to the new trade regime.

The United States has put tariffs of 25 per cent on imports of steel, aluminium and cars, and a baseline tariff of 10 per cent on most other imports from countries like Britain.

The government said on Sunday the increase raises UK Export Finance’s lending capacity to stg80 billion ($A166 billion), with up to stg10 billion ($A21 billion) set aside to support those most affected by the tariffs in the short term.

“The world is changing, which is why it is more important than ever to back our world-leading businesses and support them to navigate the challenges ahead,” finance minister Rachel Reeves said.

“Today’s announcement will do that just, with thousands of businesses right across the country set to benefit.”

Small and medium-sized businesses will also have access to loans of up to two million pounds ($A4.2 million) as part of the package.

Voter policy sweeteners have kicked up a gear with a one-off tax cut of up to $1200 on offer if the coalition wins the federal election.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s promise of temporary tax relief for more than 10 million taxpayers lands as the Albanese government unveils a plan to build 100,000 homes for first-time buyers.

Under the Coalition’s $10 billion tax plan, eligible taxpayers earning up to $144,000 a year will be in line for up to $1200 when they lodge their return for the upcoming financial year.

“The Coalition is stepping up with a plan that provides real help,” Mr Dutton said on Sunday.

The opposition leader claimed his plan would do more to ease cost-of-living pain than Labor’s ongoing tax cuts of up to $268 in 2026/27 and up to $536 each financial year after.

The Labor camp has promised to work with states and territories to use vacant or under-utilised government land to fast-track release and planning approvals to build the 100,000 homes from 2026, with buyers moving in by 2028.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australians would also be able to buy their first home with a five per cent deposit, with the government guaranteeing the other 15 per cent.

His government would expand the existing help-to-buy scheme by increasing property price limits to reflect the average in each state’s capital city and removing caps on places and incomes.

The move would mean a Sydney first homebuyer could buy a $1 million apartment with a $50,000 deposit, or a Queenslander could purchase a $850,000 home with a $42,500 deposit.

“I want to help young people and first homebuyers achieve the dream of home ownership,” Mr Albanese said in a statement.

Property Council of Australia chief executive Mike Zorbas welcomed the balance between investing in new supply as well as demand stimulus.

“This kind of generational investment is a game changer for new housing supply,” Mr Zorbas said.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles took aim at the temporary nature of the Coalition’s tax relief revealed on Sunday.

“Australians would have a right to feel a sense of cynicism about this policy, particularly in light of the position that the coalition took in relation to our tax cuts that we announced during budget,” he told Sky News on Sunday.

Mr Albanese will formally send Labor’s campaign down the slipway in Perth on Sunday while Peter Dutton is expected in Sydney for the Liberals’ launch.

Both are making things official earlier than usual in a bid to stay in public view ahead of a slew of public holidays for Easter and Anzac Day.

Both major parties have been focused on cost-of-living pressures, with Labor already committed to pouring $8.5 billion into Medicare to ensure nine out of 10 GP visits can be bulk-billed.

It has also promised to cut 20 per off student debts, rebates of $150 on energy bills and small tax cuts.

The coalition has already vowed to temporarily halve the fuel excise, match Labor’s Medicare funding and establish a $5 billion fund to speed-up essential infrastructure.

Mr Dutton has also pledged to reduce the annual intake of permanent migrants from 185,000 to 140,000 for two years and cut the number of refugee and humanitarian places.

The UK government has taken effective control of the country’s last remaining factory that makes steel from scratch from its Chinese owners, after MPs approved an emergency rescue.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer summoned MPs for the unusual Saturday sitting, only the sixth since World War II, to back legislation primarily aimed at blocking British Steel’s Chinese owners, Jingye Group, from closing the two massive blast furnaces at its Scunthorpe plant in the north of England that are key in the steelmaking process. 

The bill, which was debated over several hours and which is now law after being given royal ascent by King Charles III, gives Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds the power to direct the company’s board and workforce, ensure its 3000 workers get paid and order the raw materials necessary to keep the blast furnaces running. 

Jingye has said the Scunthorpe plant is losing 700,000 pounds ($A1.5 million) a day as a result of challenging market conditions and increased environmental costs. 

The recent decision by US President Donald Trump to impose a 25 per cent tariffs on imported steel has not helped.

After the House of Commons passed the bill on a voice vote, Starmer arrived in Scunthorpe to meet workers, who were clearly relieved that the town’s steelmaking heritage, which stretches back about 150 years, has been preserved.

“You and your colleagues for years have been the backbone of British Steel and it’s really important that we recognise that,” Starmer said.

“It’s your jobs, your lives, your communities, your families.”

The relief in the town was evident during the interval of Scunthorpe United’s football match, where the crowd at the Attis Arena cheered on a few dozen steelworkers on the field of play. 

The team is known as “The Iron” – a fond reflection of the town’s identity.

Starmer had been under pressure to act after Jingye’s recent decision to cancel orders for the iron pellets used in the blast furnaces. 

Without them and other raw materials, such as coking coal, the furnaces would likely have to shut for good, potentially within days, as they are extremely difficult and expensive to restart once cooled.

That would mean the United Kingdom, which in the late 19th century was the world’s steelmaking powerhouse, would be the only country in the G7 without the capacity to make its own steel from scratch rather than from recycled material, which use greener electric arc furnaces rather than blast furnaces.

The repercussions would be huge for industries like construction, military and rail and make the country dependent on foreign sources for so-called virgin steel, a vulnerability that MPs from all political parties baulked at.

“We could not, will not and never will stand idly by while heat seeps from the UK’s remaining blast furnaces without any planning, any due process or any respect for the consequences and that is why I needed colleagues here today,” Reynolds told MPs.

Reynolds criticised Jingye for making “excessive” demands of the government in discussions in recent months, and that without the government’s intervention, the company would have “irrevocably and unilaterally closed down primary steel making at British Steel”.

Although the legislation does not transfer ownership of the plant to the state, Reynolds conceded it was a future possibility.

It is unclear what role Jingye, owner of British Steel since 2020, will have in the day-to-day running of the steelworks.

But should it fail to abide by the new laws, the company and its executives could face legal sanctions.

Commemorating the Bondi Junction massacre could prompt further trauma but is essential for healing one year on from the tragedy, experts say.

Sunday marks a year since Australia’s worst mass killing in nearly a decade claimed the lives of six people at a Westfield shopping centre in Sydney’s east.

Joel Cauchi, 40, injured at least another 10 people including an infant before being shot dead by NSW Police Inspector Amy Scott minutes later.

Ashlee Good, 38, Dawn Singleton, 25, Jade Young, 47, Pikria Darchia, 55, Yixuan Cheng, 27 and security guard Faraz Tahir, 30, were killed in the attack on April 13, 2024.  

The community’s response in the days after the attack and photos from a candlelight vigil have been included on commemorative display boards temporarily installed in nearby Oxford Street Mall.

The shopping centre’s owners will place a floral tribute inside the centre.

NSW Premier Chris Minns and Governor Margaret Beazley will lay flowers at the scene on Sunday along with local mayor William Nemesh and other officials.

Welfare support officers will be available as the community is invited to reflect on the tragedy.

“It’s only been a year, it hasn’t been that long for us,” Hair Royale salon owner Bill Mohana told AAP.

His salon has moved from the centre. 

He and his staff did not feel able to continue working there after hiding in the back room, listening to screams and gunshots.

The anniversary will be a raw milestone for some people and could prompt “anniversary trauma”, psychologist Maria Kangas told AAP.

“It’s quite a varied response but it is quite a salient response particularly on a first anniversary,” the head of Macquarie University psychological sciences said.

“Just even the thought of the anniversary coming up this weekend could set off physiological responses in the body, like panic symptoms, they could be more irritable, they may be even a little more withdrawn.”

The violent nature of the event can cause greater stress responses than other traumatic incidents, such as natural disasters.

“Because it’s been committed by another person – a violent act that has come out of the blue, unexpected – it re-activates primal trauma fear responses in all of us,” Professor Kangas said.

“A sense of safety has been threatened.”

But the anniversary event is also an opportunity for further healing for the community along with the individuals and families directly affected.

Commemorating the tragedy is an important part of coping, psychiatrist Ian Hickie said.

“Denial doesn’t help,” the co-director of Sydney University’s Brain and Mind Centre told AAP.

“It’s no use pretending it didn’t happen – and anniversaries can serve that useful purpose

“Community support really matters in terms of minimising the psychological harm … families and communities supporting each other is much more important than professional support.”

An inquest will begin examining the massacre later in April.

It will probe Cauchi’s mental illness and treatment, past interactions with police, and the response from centre management and emergency services among other issues.

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Labor will build 100,000 homes for first-time buyers under a plan set to cost taxpayers $10 billion if it wins the federal election.

A re-elected Labor government would work with states and territories to use vacant or under-utilised government land to fast-track release and planning approvals to build the 100,000 homes from 2026, with buyers moving in by 2028.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australians would also be able to buy their first home with a five per cent deposit, with the government guaranteeing the other 15 per cent. 

His government would expand the existing help-to-buy scheme by increasing property price limits to reflect the average in each state’s capital city and removing caps on places and incomes.

The move would mean a Sydney first homebuyer could buy a $1 million apartment with a $50,000 deposit, or a Queenslander could purchase a $850,000 home with a $42,500 deposit.

“I want to help young people and first homebuyers achieve the dream of home ownership,” Mr Albanese said in a statement.

The leaders of the major parties are set to crank up the charm offensive on Sunday to win over voters ahead of the May 3 election.

Mr Albanese will formally send Labor’s campaign down the slipway in Perth while Peter Dutton is expected in Sydney for the Liberals’ launch.

Both are making things official earlier than usual in a bid to stay in public view ahead of a slew of public holidays for Easter and Anzac Day.

Mr Albanese’s pitch is also expected to emphasise the government’s track record of lowering inflation to 2.4 per cent, lowering interest rates, keeping unemployment down and creating jobs.

“Our vision is for building Australia’s future, dealing with the immediate issues that we need to put in place, providing further cost-of-living relief,” he told reporters in Perth on Saturday.

“What my government offers is stability, is certainty, is competence.”

Labor has already committed to pouring $8.5 billion into Medicare to ensure nine out of 10 GP visits can be bulk-billed.

It has also promised to cut 20 per off student debts, rebates of $150 on energy bills and small tax cuts.

Mr Dutton has promised to lead a campaign that will deliver on issues he has been presented with across Australia, including cost-of-living pressures and the difficulty of home ownership.

“People who are in tears about the cost-of-living crisis in their own families, young Australians who have lost the dream of home ownership under this government,” he said in Western Australia’s Tangney on Saturday.

“People who feel less safe in our community (and) people who are worried that they’ve got a prime minister who just can’t tell the truth.”

Mr Dutton was reportedly set to announce a one-off tax offset of up to $1200 for people earning up to $144,000, to be paid as a lump sum from July 2026.

The coalition has also pledged to reduce the annual intake of permanent migrants from 185,000 to 140,000 for two years and cut the number of refugee and humanitarian places.

It has already vowed to temporarily halve the fuel excise, match Labor’s Medicare funding and establish a $5 billion fund to speed-up essential infrastructure.

US President Donald Trump’s administration has granted tariff exclusions for smartphones, computers and other electronics imports supplied largely by China, sparing them from much of his 145 per cent duties.

In a notice to shippers, the US Customs and Border Protection agency published a list of tariff codes that will be excluded from the duties.

The exclusions are retroactive to 12.01am on April 5.

The US CBP listed 20 product categories, including the very broad 8471 code for all computers, laptops, disc drives and automatic data processing.

It also included semiconductor devices, equipment, memory chips and flat panel displays.

This means they will not be subject to the current 145 per cent tariffs levied on China or the 10 per cent baseline tariffs elsewhere.

The notice did not provide an explanation for the administration’s move but the late-night exclusion provides welcome relief to major US technology firms including Apple, Dell Technologies and countless other importers.

White House officials did not immediately reply to a request for comment on why the latest tariff exemptions had been made.

But the exemptions suggest an increasing awareness within the US administration of the pain that his tariffs had in store for consumers, especially on popular products such as smartphones, laptops and other electronics.

Trump ran for re-election last year largely on a promise to bring down prices that had rocketed and tarnished the economic reputation of US president Joe Biden and his Democratic allies.

But Trump also promised as a candidate to impose the tariffs that have become a central part of his economic agenda, and the president has dismissed the turbulence in financial markets and expected price increases arising from the levies as a disturbance that was a necessary part of realigning the global economy and world trading order with his vision.

His so-called “reciprocal tariffs,” however, raised fears of a US recession and drew criticism from his fellow Republicans, who do not want to lose control of the US House of Representatives and Senate in next year’s midterm elections to Democrats, who have sharply criticised Trump’s policies.

Trump, who is spending the weekend at his residence in Florida, told reporters on Friday he was comfortable with the high tariffs on China but respected President Xi Jinping and believed something good would come out of the trade conflict between them.

While Trump paused most country-specific tariffs for 90 days following a plunge in global stock markets earlier this week, a 145 per cent levy remains in place for Chinese imports.

with AP and DPA

Donald Trump’s administration wants to strike 90 trade deals in 90 days but the challenges to quickly resolving the president’s trade war are already apparent.

European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic will on Monday be among the first foreign trade officials to come to Washington for urgent negotiations about the steep tariffs that Trump announced on April 2. 

The bloc is among the biggest US trade partners with almost $US1 trillion ($A1.6 trillion) in two-way trade in 2024.

However, when Sefcovic arrives, Trump’s top tariff negotiator, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, will be in Buenos Aires to show support for Argentina’s economic reforms rather than in Washington, even though Argentina accounts for a mere $US16.3 billion ($A25.9 billion) in total annual trade with the US

Bessent’s absence on Monday highlights doubts among trade experts about how effectively the administration can manage so many simultaneous negotiations and the overall prospects for reaching 90 deals in 90 days.

“Teeing up these decisions is going to take some serious negotiations,” said Wendy Cutler, a former US Trade Representative chief negotiator who heads the Asia Society Policy Institute. 

“There’s no way during this time frame we’re doing a comprehensive agreement with any of these countries.”

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro countered on Fox Business Network on Friday that Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick could accomplish the job.

“So we’re going to run 90 deals in 90 days. It’s possible,” he said.

Ultimately, Navarro said, “the boss (Trump) is going to be chief negotiator – nothing is done without him looking very carefully at it”.

Trump started the 90-day countdown clock this week when he paused implementing his higher tariffs for many countries after financial markets went into a tailspin over fears of recession and inflation, among other factors. 

He said the 90-day pause would allow countries to reach bilateral deals with the US

Regaining the confidence of financial markets is another critical objective during the 90 days. 

Investors sold US Treasury debt this week, spiking interest rates and sending the dollar lower amid fears of a US recession and resurgent inflation. Gold, a haven for investors in times of crisis, hit a record high.

Cutler said this turmoil would put pressure on the Trump team for some quick wins.

“The onus is going to be on them to show that they can quickly conclude agreements with countries and instil some confidence in the market and with other trading partners that there is an off-ramp here,” she said.

Growing friction with China, which did not get a reprieve from new US tariffs and imposed counter-tariffs in equal measure, added to the gloom this week.

Reaching trade deals that satisfy both Trump and financial markets is a “huge task”, Cutler said.

Instead, the Trump team will probably have to prioritise key countries and extend the 90-day pause for others, she said.

Even the smallest of Trump’s first-term trade deals, revising the automotive and steel provisions of the US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, took more than eight months, while the comprehensive US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade took more than two years.

“We can get to a point where the president can close these deals,” Greer said.

“He can negotiate, and if there’s a deal that’s good, he can consider taking it, and if not, then he’ll have the tariff.”

The logistics of co-ordinating 90 sets of negotiations is just one hurdle for the thinly stretched administration.

Many key positions have not been filled and the officials who are there are often busy with other tasks, diplomats said, such as the Treasury officials who met with Ukraine on Friday about a critical minerals deal.

Greer told Fox News that his 200-person staff was “working around the clock” as proposals were traded back and forth with foreign counterparts.

The Treasury has just one other senior official confirmed by the Senate, Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender. 

Trump has not even nominated anyone for the key post of undersecretary for international affairs, and a career official is serving in an acting capacity.

Greer, too, is relying heavily on career staff, with several key deputy positions requiring Senate confirmation unfilled.

Another complicating factor is uncertainty about US positions on trade matters, a second diplomatic source added, saying the top Trump trade advisers each had views.

Some countries, including Britain, Australia and others, have discussed trade with the administration since Trump’s inauguration in January, with little result.

“It’s not like there’s a sheet of paper with firm talking points that is changing hands,” said one diplomatic source. 

“It’s a process. And I’d say use the term ‘talks’, not ‘negotiations’.” 

Australia and Indonesia have discussed shared concerns about regional and global economies amid escalating trade tensions in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers spoke with his Indonesian counterpart, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani, on Saturday afternoon against the backdrop of global uncertainty caused by the US government’s decision to increase tariffs on a host of trading partner countries.

The two discussed their shared concerns for regional and global economies, recent market movements, and their countries’ responses to escalating trade tensions.

“Our strategy to respond to escalating trade tensions is more resilience, more diverse markets and more engagement in our region and beyond – and that’s what all these conversations are about,” Dr Chalmers said in a statement on Saturday.

The treasurer has already spoken with South Korea and the UK about the global economic uncertainty despite the US hitting pause on the introduction of sky-high tariffs.

The tariffs’ introduction, deadlines, backflip, and escalating US-China trade war have rocked markets, creating uncertainty for traders and investors and prompting fears of recession.

China accounts for a third of Australian exports but will have less income for Australian goods and services as the upgraded 145 per cent US tariffs impact its already lumbering economy.

Dr Chalmers will take time out from the federal election campaign next week to travel to Washington for the G20, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group spring meetings.

US tariffs are expected to be a focus of conversation at the meetings, which bring key stakeholders from countries around the world together to discuss global economics.

Despite heightened global concerns about trade relations in the wake of the tariff war, Dr Chalmers said Australia’s position remained steady.

“Every country is working through what to do in these uncertain times and Australia’s in good stead because we have the right plan, we’ve made good progress in our economy, and we’ve got strong relationships with countries like Indonesia,” he said.