The Trump administration is kicking off investigations into imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors as part of a bid to impose tariffs on both sectors on national security grounds.

Notices posted to the Federal Register to be published on Wednesday set a 21-day deadline from that date for the submission of public comment on the issue and indicate the administration intends to pursue the levies under authority granted by Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Such section 232 probes need to be completed within 270 days after being announced.

The administration of President Donald Trump has started 232 investigations into imports of copper and timber, and probes completed in Trump’s first term formed the basis for tariffs rolled out since his return to the White House in January on steel and aluminium and on the auto industry.

The US began collecting 10 per cent tariffs on imports on April 5. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are exempt from those duties, but Trump has said they will face separate tariffs.

Trump said on Sunday he would be announcing a tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week, adding that there would be flexibility with some companies in the sector.

The US relies heavily on chips imported from Taiwan, something then-President Joe Biden sought to reverse by granting billions in Chips Act awards to lure chipmakers to expand production in the United States.

The investigation announced on Monday will include both pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients as well as other derivative products, the notice showed.

Drug makers have argued that tariffs could increase the chance of shortages and reduce access for patients. Still, Trump has pushed for the fees, arguing that the US needs more drug manufacturing so it does not have to rely on other countries for its supply of medicines.

Companies in the industry have lobbied Trump to phase in tariffs on imported pharmaceutical products in hopes of reducing the sting from the charges and to allow time to shift manufacturing.

Large drug makers have global manufacturing footprints, mainly in the US, Europe and Asia, and moving more production to the US involves a major commitment of resources and could take years.

Nearly one in 10 hospitality and food services businesses closed in the past year, as cost pressures force Australians to rein in spending.

A record-high 9.4 per cent of food service and hospitality businesses shut their doors in the year to March, as economy-wide insolvencies surged 17 per cent year-on-year, according to CreditorWatch data.

Six of the seven industries with the highest closure rates were dependent on discretionary spending.

Administration businesses and the arts and recreation sector both had closure rates above six per cent, while retail, construction and accommodation all had higher closure rates than the 5.3 per cent industry average.

Closure rates for all six sectors were higher than pre-COVID averages.

“They’re dealing with rising costs, rising rents, labour shortages, cost of labour, and then to add more pain onto that, the consumer is obviously spending a lot less,” CreditorWatch chief executive Patrick Coghlan told AAP.

“We particularly feel for small businesses that typically have smaller cash buffers than larger businesses and are less able to take measures to cut costs such as laying off staff or closing locations.”

The financial services and software company expected insolvency rates to stay high at least until June or July.

“But the prospect of a hung parliament and the ongoing uncertainty from the tariffs could push that out,” Mr Coghlan said.

Business-to-business invoice payment defaults were up 42 per cent on the year before and about 30,000 companies had tax debts of more than $100,000. 

Of capital city CBDs, Adelaide had the lowest forecast failure rate at 5.2 per cent, followed by Perth (5.3 per cent), Melbourne (5.8 per cent), Brisbane (5.8 per cent) and Sydney (6.3 per cent).

Western Sydney businesses faced the highest risk of closure, led at a regional level by Bringelly-Green Valley with a forecast average business closure rate of 7.9 per cent during the next year.

Making matters worse, US President Donald Trump’s tariffs were impacting financial markets, sparking volatility in equities and the Australian dollar, CreditorWatch chief economist Ivan Colhoun said.

“(These) are immediately damaging to consumer and business confidence and to the extent these uncertainties cause either consumers or businesses to delay purchases, hiring or investment decisions, the impact is a slowdown in economic activity, which will pressure weaker businesses,” he said.

While insolvency rates were likely to stay elevated for months, some relief was expected in the form of a likely Reserve Bank rate cut at its May meeting and at least another forecast later in 2025.

Fresh light is set to be shed on why the Reserve Bank held off on a further cut to interest rates despite lower inflation.

The central bank on Tuesday will release minutes from its meeting on April 1, when it decided to keep interest rates on hold at 4.1 per cent.

The bank’s decision on interest rates was made before US President Donald Trump’s tariffs decision threw global markets into chaos.

Mr Trump’s call to impose tariffs on dozens of countries before backflipping on the decision days later led to predictions of a 50 basis point reduction in the official cash rate when the Reserve Bank meets again in mid-May.

Each 25 basis point cut to the cash rate would shave about $90 off monthly repayments on a typical $600,000 mortgage.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock said while it was too early to determine how the tariffs’ impact would affect interest rate decisions, Australia was well-placed to handle the financial uncertainty.

While the Reserve Bank’s April meeting was held before the tariff call, it could shed light on how the central bank examined global trends, Commonwealth Bank senior economist Belinda Allen said.

“Given the developments in the global economy, we do expect the RBA minutes to highlight global uncertainty but also allay concerns about financial markets,” she said.

“The response of trading partners, additional counter-responses from the US, exchange rate fluctuations and adjustments in other financial markets will be key considerations.”

April’s meeting was the first time the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board met to decide on interest rates.

The bank’s board was split in two from March under reforms to the financial institution, with the monetary policy deciding on the cash rate while the governance board examines other policy areas.

“Uncertainty remains if votes will be released or if there will be any other changes in the minutes,” Ms Allen said.

Premium hikes, benign weather and surging investment markets have lifted profits for insurers but the business boom could be short-lived.

Australia’s insurance industry recorded an annual after-tax profit of $6.1 billion in 2024, according to financial consultancy firm KPMG’s annual review of the sector.

That’s three times higher than the five-year average of $2 billion.

There were no weather catastrophes in 2024 and only two significant events – the Valentine’s Day storms in Victoria and severe weather in NSW and Queensland in April.

They generated $566 million in losses from 49,000 claims, well down from the $2.356 billion paid out across 143,900 claims from catastrophes and significant events in 2023.

KPMG assurance and risk partner Scott Guse said 2024 was a benign weather year for insurers.

“We probably recall the massive Christmas Day storms that went through the Gold Coast and hinterland in December 2023 and we all recall the most recent Cyclone Alfred in February and March this year,” he told AAP.

“They didn’t get caught in this particular year that we’re looking at.

“It’s really those catastrophic weather events that drive or make the insurance result.”

As such, insurance-related profits totalled $3.1 billion, with the other $3 billion coming from investment income, also triple the five-year average.

“That shouldn’t be surprising to the public because most of us saw good investment returns for our superannuation funds in 2024,” Mr Guse said.

Annual premium revenue jumped from $65.5 billion to $68 billion from 2023 to 2024.

The average customer paid 19.3 per cent more for home insurance coverage ($1277 up from $1070) and 12 per cent more for car insurance coverage ($845 up from $945).

The return to positive profits was a sign double-digit premium hikes were hopefully behind customers, Mr Guse said.

“We do need our insurers to be viable and survive, and to do that they need to make profit,” he said.

“Because they were making losses, they need to put through price increases.

“But on top of that we then saw, through COVID, supply-chain issues, price inflation, the cost of builders all going up.”

Insurers continue to face pressure from the increasing frequency, severity and longevity of natural diasters, including floods, bushfires and cyclones.

Mr Guse said it was impossible to tell what was around the corner amid climate change.

“We always know that it’s a bad season from October through to May and we’re not through that season as yet,” he said.

“The profits that were made last year could be largely eroded if we have a bad year.”

Without more intervention, the report warned premium costs would continue to rise in high-risk areas and make insurance unaffordable for many customers.

It’s been billed as an opportunity to save people from the time-consuming task of rummaging through receipts at tax time, but not everyone is happy.

At Labor’s official campaign launch, Anthony Albanese promised almost six million workers an instant $1000 tax deduction.

The prime minister said the change, originally put forward in a tax reform paper more than a decade ago, would benefit mainly low and middle-income earners who could claim the write-off without receipts or records.

CPA Australia, the nation’s leading accounting body, said the instant deduction could save workers time, but might mean they miss out on the full refund they are entitled to.

“Taxpayers should be encouraged to take greater responsibility for their finances and tax obligations,” tax lead Jenny Wong said.

“Clicking a few buttons to get a basic deduction may be easy, but it is unlikely to be in the best interests of taxpayers or the economy.”

Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand urged taxpayers to hold onto their receipts.

“The standard deduction only relates to expenses associated with labour, so those taxpayers who also earn business income, rental income, interest and dividends … will need to keep their receipts to claim deductions related to those activities,” the organisation said.

But George Washington University economics professor Steven Hamilton said Labor’s proposal would save the tax office and people money, in addition to moving to a system where no one has to itemise.

“The ATO has to spend a lot of money policing those deductions, and it’s just simpler for everybody,” he told AAP.

“It’s a great example of how making our tax system simpler and more straightforward can lift a big weight off of the economy.”

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton arrived in Melbourne on Monday evening as the coalition targets mortgage-belt seats in the key battleground state.

Polling conducted by Roy Morgan shows Labor ahead of the coalition, 54.5 to 45.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

More than a third of voters say Australia is going in the “right direction” at 34.5 per cent, with the number of people saying the opposite down 4.5 points to 48.5 per cent.

A separate Resolve poll published by the Nine newspapers had Labor ahead 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent in two-party preferred terms.

A trial which could see social media giant Meta forced to sell off Instagram and WhatsApp is set to begin in the US.

The tech giant, which also owns Facebook, faces an antitrust lawsuit from the US government which alleges the firm bought Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014 to eliminate competition, creating a social media monopoly in the process.

The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) approved the acquisitions at the time but as a competition watchdog has continued to monitor the outcomes, and experts say if it wins the case and forces a sale to break up Meta, it could change the landscape of the social media sector.

Mike Proulx, vice president research director at analyst firm Forrester, said the case’s possible ramifications, and the ongoing uncertainty around the future of TikTok, could see a “new social media world order” appear.

“The ramifications of this trial, coupled with TikTok’s future in limbo, potentially puts the very core of the social media market at play. No longer would Meta be its centre of gravity,” he said.

“We haven’t seen anything like this since around 2006-2011 – social media’s earliest days.

“We’d likely see a renaissance of social media start-ups looking to grab a piece of new social media world order.”

Proulx said that, although Facebook was the original and centre pillar of Meta’s empire, it could struggle to compete as a social media power and may need to redirect its focus.

“Meta is trying to make Facebook cool again, but the company’s social media ‘insurance’ is – and has been for a while – Instagram,” he said.

“Without Instagram and WhatsApp, what really is Meta? Could Facebook seriously compete with a stand-alone Instagram? Can Threads monetise at scale? Doubtful. And the company absolutely should not hang its hat on its fledgling metaverse ambitions.

“Its AI (artificial intelligence) glasses are a bright spot, as is its broader AI work.

“That means, in a broken-up Meta, the company’s AI initiatives would usurp its social media roots.”

The trial, which begins in Washington DC on Monday, is expected to last several weeks, with Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg and former chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg both expected to give evidence.

Meta is not the only US tech giant under scrutiny over holding an alleged monopoly, with Google also facing the prospect of being forced to sell its Chrome web browser and break up its online search empire.

After a judge ruled that the firm does hold a monopoly in online search last year, the US Department of Justice demanded that a court require Google to sell Chrome, among other remedies to end its market dominance – a position it reiterated last month.

Teachers are pushing back on suggestions they’re to blame for Australia’s low maths proficiency, after a study questioned “faddish” classroom methods.

A Grattan Institute study found not only were students struggling with maths but many teachers lacked confidence to teach it even at a year six level.

But the teachers’ union said the institute did not understand the reality of classrooms around the nation.

Grattan called for a number of government commitments, including a long-term goal of 90 per cent numeracy proficiency on NAPLAN testing, clearer guidance to schools on teaching methods and more professional development for teachers.

The union said some of the proposals – including “beefing up school and principal reviews” and setting up an independent oversight body to drive the curriculum – were not the answer.

Instead, the focus for all curriculum areas should be on ensuring high-quality teacher education and ongoing professional development, addressing escalating workloads and fully funding public schools.

“It’s time for the Grattan Institute to leave teaching to the highly qualified and trained teaching profession,”  Australian Education Union federal president Correna Haythorpe said.

Just 13 per cent of Australian year four students excelled on a 2023 international maths test, compared with 22 per cent in England, 16 per cent in Ireland and 32 per cent in Japan.

At year eight level, just 11 per cent of Australians excelled.

Grattan Institute education program director Jordana Hunter said Australia had deprioritised maths for decades.

“Governments have also been too slow to rule out faddish but unproven maths teaching methods,” she said.

“To turn rhetoric into reality, governments need to take seriously the evidence base on how humans, including children, learn maths most effectively.”

The institute’s survey found some teachers lacked the confidence to teach year six maths, while many were concerned about their colleagues’ ability to teach the subject.

Dr Hunter said a 10-year “maths guarantee strategy” would only cost about $67 per primary school student a year.

La Trobe University education expert Joanna Barbousas said the study made it clear action was needed to halt the “numeracy crisis”.

“The lifetime impact for students who fall behind on these core skills is substantial,  affecting long-term employment, health and social outcomes and perpetuating cycles of disadvantage,” she said.

“Teachers are telling us they feel unprepared for the classroom … when half of our 15-year-olds fail to achieve national standards in maths, it’s not the students who are failing, it’s our approach to education.”

Education Minister Jason Clare pointed to the government’s funding agreements with states and said the money was tied to practical reforms, including an early years numeracy check.

“We’re also improving teacher training at university to make sure teaching students are taught the fundamentals about how to teach children to read and write and do maths and how to manage disruptive classrooms,” he said.

China’s President Xi Jinping has called for stronger ties with Vietnam on trade and supply chains amid disruptions caused by US tariffs, as he kicked off a three-nation trip to Southeast Asia in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi.

The visit, planned for weeks, comes as Beijing faces 145 per cent US duties, while Vietnam is negotiating a reduction of threatened US tariffs of 46 per cent that would otherwise apply in July after a global moratorium expires.

“The two sides should strengthen co-operation in production and supply chains,” Xi said in an article in Nhandan, the newspaper of Vietnam’s Communist Party, posted ahead of his arrival on Monday.

He also urged more trade and stronger ties with Hanoi on artificial intelligence and the green economy.

“There are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars, and protectionism has no way out,” Xi said, without mentioning the US specifically.

“We must firmly safeguard the multilateral trading system, maintain the stability of the global industrial and supply chains, and maintain the international environment for open co-operation,” he said.

Under pressure from Washington, Vietnam is tightening controls on some trade with China to make sure goods exported to the United States with a “Made in Vietnam” label have sufficient added value in the country to justify that.

Vietnam is a major industrial and assembly hub in Southeast Asia. Most of its imports are from China while the United States is its main export market. The country is a crucial source of electronics, shoes and apparel for the United States.

Xi will visit Vietnam from April 14 to 15, and Malaysia and Cambodia from April 15 to 18. He last visited Cambodia and Malaysia nine and 12 years ago, respectively.

Xi’s trip to Hanoi, his second in less than 18 months, aims to consolidate relations with a strategic neighbour that has received billions of dollars of Chinese investments in recent years as China-based manufacturers moved south to avoid tariffs imposed by the first Trump administration.

The two Communist-run countries are set to sign about 40 agreements in multiple sectors, Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son said on Saturday.

Despite strong economic ties, tensions frequently surface between the countries over contested boundaries in the South China Sea.

Vietnam’s concessions to the US to avoid tariffs may also irritate Beijing, as they include the deployment of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communication service in the Southeast Asian nation, in addition to the crackdown on some trade with China over possible fraud on rules of origin.

The two other countries on Xi’s Southeast Asia itinerary, Cambodia and Malaysia, are facing US duties of 49 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively, and have already begun reaching out to the US to seek a reprieve.

China’s exports rose sharply in March after factories rushed out shipments before the latest US tariffs took effect, but an escalating Sino-US trade war has darkened the outlook for factories and growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.

US President Donald Trump has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods to hefty levels that many economists say will profoundly impact global trade flows and business investment.

Exports rose 12.4 per cent year-on-year, a five-month high, handily beating 4.4 per cent growth expected in a Reuters poll of economists. Exports grew 2.3 per cent in January-February.

Trade uncertainties have rocked financial markets this month after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on many countries on April 2.

Trump unexpectedly paused the higher duties on a dozen economies days later, but slapped even stiffer levies on China that Beijing has dismissed as “a joke”.

Economists warn the March export figures will be eclipsed by a fast deteriorating outlook.

“Export growth accelerated in March, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to the US ahead of ‘Liberation Day’,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.

“But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters.

“We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.”

Trump levied 10 per cent tariffs across all Chinese imports into the United States, effective on February 4, and followed that up with another 10 per cent in March, accusing Beijing of not doing enough to stem the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

Washington’s fresh round of tariffs lift duties on China to an eye-watering 145 per cent, prompting Beijing to jack up levies on US goods by 125 per cent in an intensifying trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.

Monday data also highlighted a soft underbelly in domestic demand in China, meaning policymakers will have their work cut out in trying to guard against any sharp trade downturn.

Inbound shipments fell 4.3 per cent, compared with a 2.0 per cent decrease forecast in a Reuters poll, and an unexpectedly steep contraction of 8.4 per cent at the start of the year.

Markets in China were up modestly, but much of the activity was linked to mixed messages from Trump over the weekend regarding exemptions on smartphones and other electronics. China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index climbed 0.3 per cent.

China’s March trade surplus was $US102.64 billion ($A162.83 billion), down slightly from $US104.8 billion in December, the most recent comparable reading.

More importantly, China’s trade surplus with the United States in the first quarter came in at $US76.6 billion, up from $US70.2 billion a year earlier.

This will likely keep the production powerhouse in Trump’s sights given that improving the trade gap is at the top of his agenda.

Beijing has vowed to fight US tariffs to the end and protect the economy from “external shocks”, with markets widely expecting authorities to roll out further fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in coming months to underpin growth.

An increase in violent attacks on tobacconists could put further pressure on overworked emergency departments, a peak medical body warns, as authorities play “whack-a-mole” on the lucrative trade.

Queensland is the latest state to experience a rise in firebombings and ram raids on tobacconists as illegal sales ramp up across Australia.

There have been more than 100 firebombings in Victoria in two years while seven men have been arrested across Sydney over the theft of illegal cigarettes and chop-chop, or loose tobacco, in the past year.

It is believed the attacks and thefts are a result of ongoing wars between criminal gangs over illegal tobacco profits.

Peak health body the Australian Medical Association Queensland is concerned the rise of the illegal trade will make tobacco cheaper and easier to buy.

“We are also concerned that a growing black market could see increased violence leading to avoidable emergency department presentations and pressure on our doctors and nurses,” president Nick Yim told AAP.

Dr Yim has thrown his support behind the Queensland government’s recent hike in fines for individuals and companies caught selling illegal tobacco.

Individuals can be fined $32,260, up from $3226, and corporations can be slapped with $161,300, up from $16,130.

It follows laws introduced in September enabling authorities to close offending businesses for up to six months – a penalty no other state has introduced.

The strict legislation included extra investment in Queensland Health officers to stamp out black market operators selling vapes but Dr Yim said the same funding was needed for illegal tobacco enforcement.

“We urge (the government) to back the laws with adequate enforcement,” he said.

There are 5000 retailers in Queensland with hundreds more estimated to be selling illegal tobacco, Health Minister Tim Nicholls told ABC Radio on Monday.

There have been 36 raids across the state in April, with 820,000 cigarettes, 180kg of tobacco and 24,000 nicotine pouches seized.

“As soon as these pop-up shops open up and are closed by our hard-working teams, they open up yet again in another location,” Mr Nicholls said. 

“It’s a bit of a whack-a-mole game at the moment, but we’ve got to attack it.”

Mr Nicholls hoped increasing the fines tenfold would “break the back” of the illegal tobacco trade but said a combined effort with federal authorities was required to stop product from entering the country.

Shadow health spokesman Mark Bailey said the federal Labor government was pouring funds into cracking down on the illegal tobacco market.

“This is a national issue that requires a national response, which is why the Albanese Labor government’s $156.7 million investment to tackle the tobacco black market is so critical,” he told AAP.

The federal government announced in March it would pump $157 million into federal health, crime and tax agencies across two years to strengthen enforcement and target crime gangs.