US President Donald Trump says he had agreed on a trade deal with India that slashes US tariffs on ​Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent in exchange for India lowering trade barriers, stopping its purchases of Russian oil and buying oil instead from the US ⁠and potentially Venezuela.

“Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent,” Trump said in a social media post following a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A White House official told Reuters that the US ‌was rescinding a punitive, 25 per cent ​duty on all imports from India over its purchases of Russian oil that had stacked on top of ‍a 25 per cent “reciprocal” tariff rate.

Modi also committed to buy more than $US500 billion ($A720 billion) worth of US energy, technology, agricultural and other products, Trump added. 

“Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18 per cent,” Modi said in a social media post on X. 

“Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement.”

US-listed shares of ​major Indian companies rallied on the news.

IT consulting firm Infosys was up ‌3.53 per cent in afternoon trading, consultancy Wipro rose 7.0 per cent, HDFC Bank gained 3.4 per cent and the iShares MSCI India exchange-traded fund rallied 3.3 per cent.

On Saturday, Trump teased a potential deal for India to buy ​Venezuelan oil after the US seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a military raid in early January.

The deal comes after months of ‍tense trade negotiations between the world’s two largest democracies.

Last August, Trump doubled duties on imports from India to 50 per cent to pressure Indian firms to stop buying Russian oil, and earlier this month said the rate could rise again if it did not curb ​its ​purchases.

Purchases of Venezuelan oil would help replace some of ​the Russian oil bought by India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer.

Expectations are high for a Reserve Bank rate hike at its first meeting of the year, but what it does next is much less certain.

As the central bank’s board was ensconced in deliberation at its temporary digs around the corner from Martin Place, bond traders were pricing in a greater-than-three-quarter chance of a 25 basis point hike.

Fresh data last week showed the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of inflation, the quarterly trimmed mean, is running at 3.4 per cent – well above the central bank’s 2.5 per cent target point.

Having previously opened the door to a hike with hawkish commentary in December, it was harder now not to walk through it, JP Morgan economists Ben Jarman, Tom Kennedy and Tom Ryan said.

While most economists agree a rate rise on Tuesday is inevitable, they don’t all share the market’s belief the Reserve Bank will hike again before the end of 2026.

“We don’t see a case for further tightening past February at this stage, unless the RBA staff’s forecasts change in a substantial way,” Mr Jarman, Mr Kennedy and Mr Ryan said.

Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics Belinda Allen agreed.

“We think the RBA will be one and done for interest rate hikes in 2026,” she told AAP.

“Inflation is too high, the economy is growing a little bit above its potential, but it won’t take much to bring the economy and inflation back into balance.

“The risk, of course, is that more will need to be done.

“A lot of that will be driven by how the labour market performs and how upcoming inflation prints go.”

Simultaneous to the rate decision, the Reserve Bank will release its updated staff economic forecasts.

The Statement on Monetary Policy will provide plenty of clues about how the bank thinks the next year will play out.

“It’s important to watch those figures, because that will also give us a clue about what the RBA thinks they may well have to do in terms of interest rates,” Ms Allen said.

In their latest set of economic forecasts in November, Reserve Bank staff forecast inflation to remain above 2.5 per cent until at least the end of 2027.

But that was based on market forecasts for interest rates, which at the time assumed the cash rate would remain at its current level.

While inflation has since exceeded expectations, the cash rate assumption Reserve Bank staff will be using to model their forecasts will now be substantially higher.

Along with a stronger Aussie dollar, which hit a three-year high above US71c last week and will take some heat out of the economy, that should enable them to forecast inflation returning to target, ANZ Bank’s head of Australian economics Adam Boyton said.

“We expect (governor Michele) Bullock will emphasise that the board is not committed to any particular path for the cash rate and that an interest rate increase in February is not necessarily the start of a series of rate hikes,” he said.

Nationals leader David Littleproud is facing mounting pressure within his party to reunite with the Liberals after surviving an attempt to challenge his leadership.

Mr Littleproud, who vowed no one within the Nationals could serve in a shadow cabinet under Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, is being urged to put the coalition back together almost two weeks on from the break-up.

The pair met on Monday evening ahead of parliament’s official return for the year, for the first formal talks to negotiate a potential reconciliation.

Deputy Nationals leader Kevin Hogan described the discussion as “really good, civil, co-operative and friendly”.

“There is a will within our room, the Nationals and obviously the Liberal party room, that we want to be a coalition again at some time in the future,” he told ABC’s 7.30.

“We have some issues to deal with, and we, in good faith, are trying to nut them out right now.”

Mr Hogan said it was unlikely the two parties would face the first Question Time of the year together.

Mr Littleproud blamed Ms Ley for the split after she accepted the resignations of three Nationals senators who breached shadow cabinet solidarity by voting against an agreed position on hate crimes laws.

Mr Hogan said the key sticking point remained, and there wasn’t an agreement made whether the three senators who resigned would be reinstated.

On shadow cabinet solidarity, he said it had been fully discussed and that the Liberals had put forward suggestions.

“We’re going to take some of those ideas to our party room too, so that we can agree with some of the guardrails of how they want it to operate going forward,” Mr Hogan said.

Queensland backbencher Colin Boyce failed to secure the support needed to formally bring on a vote to spill the Nationals leadership during a party room meeting earlier that day.

Mr Boyce said the party needed to reunify to reform the coalition, with a majority of MPs backing a separate motion introduced by Victorian MP Darren Chester to reinstate the political alliance.

The opposition leader will also likely face a challenge to her leadership of the Liberals this fortnight by Angus Taylor.

Polling has shown surging support for One Nation surpassing that of the coalition, causing alarm within both the Nationals and the Liberals.

Ms Ley had previously handed down a one-week deadline to the Nationals for them to come back into the fold.

The Liberals planned to expand their shadow cabinet if an agreement was not reached by February 9, resulting in roles held by Nationals on the frontbench being taken over.

The Nationals party room will hold a second meeting on Tuesday before the chambers sit at midday AEDT.

Sarah Court, the incoming head of Australia’s corporate watchdog, will bring a “strong record in enforcement” to ASIC, outgoing chair Joe Longo says.

As the first woman to lead the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in its 35-year history, Ms Court will bring deep regulatory expertise to the role from her career of public service, Mr Longo said.

“Sarah is an exceptional regulator with a strong record in enforcement that demonstrates her integrity and impact,” Mr Longo said.

Ms Court, who has acted as ASIC’s deputy chair for almost five years under Mr Longo, was announced as his replacement by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Monday night.

“Her work as ASIC’s deputy chair has been instrumental to the success of the agency’s structural transformation that has strengthened our enforcement posture and work, leading to better outcomes for consumers and a fairer financial system,” Mr Longo said.

“ASIC will be in very capable hands under her leadership.”

Together, they have overseen an overhaul of the regulator’s internal processes and a significant step-up in enforcement action, commencing 252 investigations in 2024/25, up from 168 the previous financial year.

Ms Court said it would be business as usual until her appointment begins on June 1, and she was focused on working with Mr Longo on a smooth transition.

“ASIC’s work is critically important for all Australians and it will be a privilege to take on the role of Chair in June,” she said.

“I want to acknowledge and thank Joe Longo not just for his work as chair helping transform ASIC into a modern, confident, ambitious and bold regulator, but also for his generous and unwavering support since we started at the agency together.”

Dr Chalmers thanked Mr Longo for his “significant contribution” in strengthening ASIC’s capability, his focus on consumer protection and his work on public and private markets.

As an experienced litigator and leader, Ms Court will make a positive impact on one of Australia’s major regulators, Dr Chalmers said.

“Ms Court has more than 15 years’ experience in senior statutory positions across various corporate regulators, a strong background in regulation, litigation, and enforcement, and deep expertise in upholding corporate standards and protecting market integrity,” he said.

Tourists keen to follow tradition by tossing a coin into Rome’s ​Trevi Fountain will need to dig a little deeper as the city introduces a visitor fee.

The new 2-euro ($A3.40) charge, ⁠aimed at easing overtourism and helping fund upkeep of the monument, applies only to visitors who from Monday walk down the stone steps to get close to the fountain’s basin.

The surrounding square, which offers views of the landmark, will remain freely accessible.

Under rules first announced in December, Rome residents are exempt, along with people with disabilities and ‍their companions, and children under the age of six.

The Trevi fee was rolled out in conjunction with a new 5-euro tourist ticket fee for some city museums.

“I didn’t know that we had to pay but I have no problem with that,” said Argentine tourist Valentina De Vicentis, one of those affected by the new fee.

She said she expected it to ease overcrowding.

“There are less people in here, so I think that’s good, because if not, there are a lot of people ​and you can’t take pictures and you can’t stay (for a ‌long) time and enjoy.”

The Trevi Fountain, where tradition dictates that visitors toss a coin into the water to guarantee their return to Rome, has ​long been one of the city’s most popular attractions, even for visiting world leaders.

It is remembered for the ‍famous film scene in Federico Fellini’s La Dolce Vita in which Anita Ekberg wades into the fountain and beckons her co-star Marcello Mastroianni to join her: “Marcello! Come here!”

Authorities say more than 10 ​million ​people visited the fountain in the December 2024-December ​2025 period, which largely coincided with a Catholic Holy Year, ​or Jubilee, which drew about 33.5 million pilgrims to Rome.

Fed by an ancient Roman aqueduct and completed in 1762, the monument is a late Baroque masterpiece depicting Oceanus, the god of all water, symbolising the varying moods of the world’s seas and rivers.

With tourism booming in Rome and across Italy, visitor fees have been introduced at a growing number of cultural landmarks.

They include Rome’s ancient Pantheon, the entire city of Venice during the peak travel season and, on a temporary basis, the ‍courtyard in Verona with the balcony associated with Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet.

with AP

US President Donald Trump’s administration plans to create a strategic reserve of rare earth elements, a stockpile that could counter China’s ability to use its dominance of these hard to process metals as leverage in trade talks.

The White House confirmed on Monday the start of Project Vault, which would initially be funded by a $US10 billion ($A14 billion) loan from the US Export-Import Bank and nearly $US1.67 billion in private capital.

The minerals kept in the reserve would help to shield the manufacturers of cars, electronics and other goods from any supply chain disruptions.

During trade talks last year spurred by Trump’s tariffs, the Chinese government restricted the exporting of rare earths that are needed for jet engines, radar systems, electric vehicles, laptops and phones.

China represents about 70 per cent of the world’s rare earths mining and 90 per cent of global rare earths processing.

That gave it a chokehold on the sector that has caused the US to nurture alternative sources of the elements, creating a stockpile similar to the US reserve for petroleum.

The loan would be for a period of 15 years.

The US government has previously taken stakes in the rare earths miner MP Materials, as well as providing financial backing to the companies Vulcan Elements and USA Rare Earth.

Bloomberg News was the first to report the creation of the rare earths strategic reserve.

Trump is scheduled on Monday to meet with General Motors CEO Mary Barra and mining industry billionaire Robert Friedland.

with Reuters

The next head of Australia’s financial regulator has been revealed as a continuity pick that will continue the Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s hardline approach to fighting corporate misconduct.

Sarah Court, ASIC’s current deputy chair, was unveiled by Treasurer Jim Chalmers as the watchdog’s next chair in a statement on Monday evening.

A seasoned litigator, Ms Court was an unsurprising choice to succeed ASIC’s outgoing chair Joe Longo, under whom she has served as deputy for almost five years.

“Ms Court has been an excellent deputy and she’ll be an outstanding chair,” Dr Chalmers said in a statement.

“Over the past five years, Sarah has substantially strengthened ASIC’s enforcement and investigation capabilities.

“Under her leadership, ASIC has delivered some of its strongest enforcement results on record – reflecting a sharper focus on protecting consumers, lifting standards across the financial system, and reinforcing the integrity of Australia’s markets.”

Before joining ASIC, Ms Court was a commissioner at the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and a senior lawyer at the Australian Government Solicitor.

Ms Court’s elevation means there are a record number of women in charge of Australia’s key economic institutions.

The first female head of ASIC, she joins fellow female leaders in Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock, ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb, Treasury secretary Jenny Wilkinson, and Productivity Commission chair Danielle Wood.

Ms Court begins her five-year term on July 1.

As head of ASIC, Ms Court will have a significant influence over Australian corporate culture at a time when getting the balance right between preventing overregulation and consumer harm is hotly contested.

Under Mr Longo’s tenure, ASIC’s enforcement capabilities have been strengthened and the regulator has begun a major digital transformation.

“Mr Longo has made a significant contribution to ASIC’s work, including through his focus on enforcement and consumer protection initiatives, his work on public and private markets and strengthening the commission’s organisational capability,” Dr Chalmers said.

But ASIC has also been criticised in some quarters for being overly aggressive in its litigation, while also being accused of falling asleep at the wheel by failing to stop the collapse of First Guardian and Shield managed investment funds.

Borrowers are running out of time to lock in a mortgage rate below five per cent, as lenders prepare for a Reserve Bank interest rate hike.

As the RBA rate-setting board starts its first two-day meeting of the year, the majority of economists and money markets expect the central bank to lift the cash rate to 3.85 per cent when it emerges on Tuesday.

That would cause home loan rates under five per cent to disappear, data insights director at financial comparison site Canstar, Sally Tindall, said.

Since the last rate cut in August, a resurgence in inflation has caused a dramatic turnaround in market expectations.

From pricing in two more rate cuts, traders are now betting on two rate hikes by the end of 2026.

Lenders have followed suit, with 60 hiking at least one fixed rate since the last RBA meeting in December, Canstar rate tracking shows.

“There are now just six lenders offering fixed rates under five per cent,” Ms Tindall said. 

“A February hike would almost certainly close the door on the last remaining options.”

A 25-basis-point rate rise would add $150 in monthly repayments to a $1 million mortgage, or $1800 a year, assuming it is fully passed on by the banks.

But a hike is not fully guaranteed, Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said.

While the former RBA assistant governor expects the central bank to raise rates, there is a chance the board opts to wait a little bit longer.

There is a case to be made that data shows inflation is not moving further away from target and there are also arguments to be cautious given the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ new monthly measure has made inflation harder to interpret, she said.

However, HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham says the case to hike is a strong one.

“By not having hiked as much, and not having delivered as big a downturn, it seems the RBA should have held its cash rate higher for a bit longer,” he said in a research note.

The RBA cut rates too soon and too far because of two false assumptions, he said.

First, the RBA assumed Australia could sustain a higher growth rate without contributing to inflation because its productivity growth assumption was overly optimistic. 

Second, the RBA had too much faith in Treasury forecasts and was blindsided when government spending came in much higher than forecast.

The government’s mid-year fiscal update in December showed the biggest upside surprise to spending in decades, with public expenditure over four years expected to be 1.7 per cent of GDP higher than forecast in April – a “macroeconomically significant” upside surprise.

Australian grain growers are storing their product on farms rather than shipping it offshore via handlers as falling commodity prices cut into already thin margins.

Shares in GrainCorp, one of Australia’s biggest agribusinesses, dropped to multi-year lows on Monday after it downgraded its earnings outlook because of global oversupply and weak returns for grains.

Its received volumes and subsequent exports are also expected to drop as growers opt to store their own grain rather than pay monthly fees to someone else to handle and sell the product.

“Most growers have worked out that the only way they can make money is storing it on their own farms, because the margins are that tight,” Grain Producers Australia southern director Andrew Weidemann told AAP.

There are also more agencies competing and putting pressure on GrainCorp’s structure.

“In grain production, there’s more than a third of the price post the farm gate to get it to an end user and so farmers are looking at how they can participate in that part of the process in the supply chain,” Mr Weidemann said.

Strong domestic demand also means growers are opting to sell locally, rather than worry about shipping abroad, further driving their storage needs away from giants like GrainCorp.

The group’s projected underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the current financial year are now expected to fall between $200 million and $240 million, down from $308 million in the prior year.

It also projected an underlying net profit after tax of between $20 million and $50 million for the year ending September 2026, down from $87 million previously, missing consensus estimates by more than 60 per cent, according to RBC Capital Markets.

“GNC (GrainCorp) provided a profit warning in December, alluding to the weakness in global trading margins and the propensity of farmers to withhold strong production volumes on farm,” RBC analyst Owen Birrell said.

“Today’s trading update and profit guidance has highlighted the financial impact of these actions, and GNC’s exposure and operating leverage to these actions.”

GrainCorp shares plunged 15 per cent to a more than four-year low of $6.12 on Monday.

The stock price is down more than 30 per cent since it delivered its fiscal 2025 results in December.

“Record global production has created an oversupply of grain, outpacing demand growth and placing downward pressure on commodity prices for the whole market,” chief executive and managing director Robert Spurway said.

With the east-coast winter harvest substantially complete, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences is predicting a winter crop of 31.2 million tonnes.

However, while GrainCorp’s boss conceded market conditions had reduced incentives for growers to deliver grain to market, its strong balance sheet meant it was still well positioned in the market.

“GrainCorp is exercising strong operating discipline in response to the current environment,” Mr Spurway said. 

“At this point in the cycle, we are accelerating cost management initiatives while continuing to deliver high-quality and reliable services to growers.”

GrainCorp will hold its annual general meeting of shareholders in Sydney on February 18.

The founder and head of a stock exchange-listed travel company reeling from an overbilling scandal by its British subsidiary is retiring, effective immediately.

Jamie Pherous will transition to a six-month-long strategic advisory role with Corporate Travel Management, which he built over 32 years from a small Brisbane agency into one of the world’s biggest travel service providers.

CTM was last valued at $2 billion, but its shares have been frozen on the Australian Securities Exchange since August 26 as auditors probe financial irregularities at its UK division. 

The company stood down its chief executive for the UK and Europe, Michael Healy, on November 28 before terminating his employment on December 19.

It then announced it would refund several large customers as much as Stg 77.6 million ($A157 million) relating to contracts carried out by its UK group from 2021 to 2023.

The UK Home Office, which in 2023 awarded CTM a Stg 1.6 billion ($A3 billion) contract to place refugees and asylum seekers in accommodation, had confirmed the Australian company notified it in November that it had been overbilled.

KPMG is conducting an ongoing forensic audit and CTM said in December it was too soon to say whether any criminality was involved. None of the company’s leaders have been accused of wrongdoing.

As well, there has been no suggestion that any of CTM’s Australian-based head office management knew of the UK irregularities before they were discovered in August during an audit.

Ana Pedersen, CTM’s chief commercial officer, has been appointed acting group chief executive while the company searches for a permanent replacement.

Former president and chief executive of BCD Travel, John Snyder, will serve as a special advisor during the transition period.

CTM chairman Ewen Crouch said the board had determined, in consultation with Mr Pherous, that now was the time for new leadership.

“We recognise the frustration and disappointment of our shareholders,” he said, adding the company was doing all it could to reinstate CTM’s shares for trading on the Australian bourse as soon as possible.

Mr Pherous said he had decided it was in the best interest of the company for him to retire to allow new leadership to focus on the challenges ahead.

Ms Pedersen, who joined CTM in October, said her immediate priority would be finalising its accounting issues so its shares, which last traded at $16.07, could be reinstated.

“At the same time, we remain laser-focused on client delivery,” she said.