European shares have fallen, while the dollar rose as traders took some heart from trade talks between the US and Japan, and gold hit a record as Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell added a note of caution about the growth outlook.

With a long weekend ahead, investors were reluctant to double down too heavily on the broad-based decline in risk assets this week.

US President Donald Trump unexpectedly joined talks in Washington on Wednesday with a delegation from Japan, saying later that “big progress” had been made in the discussions with lead Japanese negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, but giving no details.

Adding to the cocktail of uncertainty was the European Central Bank’s policy meeting later on Thursday.

The ECB is widely expected to cut euro zone interest rates, but might not offer much clarity about the effects on growth and inflation from Trump’s tariffs.

The STOXX 600 fell 0.4 per cent as construction and healthcare shares dropped, but still headed for a 4.2 per cent gain this week, while the euro, which is not far off three-year highs against the dollar, eased 0.25 per cent to $US1.1372.

“As the dust is starting to settle, there are concerns regarding that stagflationary outlook that Powell warned about and I think there’s potential for the ECB to warn about a stagflationary outlook for the euro zone as well,” City Index strategist Fiona Cincotta said.

“Those comments from Powell are quite stark.”

Powell, who was speaking for the first time since Trump last week paused some of his barrage of tariffs, said the Fed would wait for more data on where the economy was headed before making any changes to interest rates.

But he also cautioned that Trump’s tariff policies risked pushing inflation and employment further from the central bank’s goals.

US stock futures rose, suggesting a recovery after Wednesday’s sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 down 2.2 per cent and the Nasdaq down more than three per cent.

Futures on the Nasdaq were up 1.2 per cent, while those on the S&P were up one per cent, as technology shares got a boost from forecast-busting earnings from Taiwan’s TSMC.

Results from TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, followed warnings from bellwethers Nvidia and ASML that rattled investors.

Dutch company ASML said tariffs were increasing uncertainty around its outlook for 2025 and 2026, while AI pioneer Nvidia warned of a $US5.5 billion hit after Washington restricted exports of its AI processor tailored for China.

The dollar has been a major casualty from the uncertainty stemming from both the rollout of the tariffs and their impact on economic growth.

Investors have ditched US stocks and bonds in the past couple of weeks.

Against a basket of six other currencies, the dollar has fallen to its lowest in three years in April.

Treasuries have been relatively stable.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield was up four basis points at 4.32 per cent.

The yen touched a seven-month high earlier in the session before reversing to trade 0.8 per cent weaker at 142.945 per dollar after Akazawa said foreign exchange had not been discussed at the trade talks in Washington.

In commodities, gold racked up yet another record high, going as high as $US3,357.40 per ounce as safe-haven flows and an exodus from the dollar gathered pace.

Oil prices rose on the prospect of tighter supply, leaving Brent crude futures up 0.7 per cent at $US66.33 a barrel.

The expected loss of an iconic Australian music festival has locals fearing the economic cost and calling for government support for the struggling sector.

After watching her community face the possibility of losing two major festivals, Federal Greens candidate Mandy Nolan says the events need support to stay alive.

“It’s time for the government to value the creative arts, in the same way we support sport and other events,” she told AAP.

More than 40 music festivals across Australia have been cancelled since 2022.

Byron Bay’s Splendour in the Grass, previously staged across three days in July, canned its 2024 and 2025 events and the owners of the site that hosted it have put their parklands venue up for sale.

In another hit to the region, Bluesfest event director Peter Noble announced the 2025 festival would be the last and pared the festival back from five days to four.

“Let’s make the final Bluesfest one for the ages,” he said when the first line-up announcement dropped in August 2024.

Ms Nolan said it would be devastating for the region to lose Bluesfest.

“Not just economically … also because it’s so iconic,” she said.

“You realise how important it is to really fight for our creative community and iconic events.”

A report from the Bluesfest organisers estimated the 2024 festival contributed more than $230 million to the NSW economy.

Local businesses, workers, artists and buskers all benefited from thousands of visitors attending the festival, Ms Nolan said

Regional NSW generates more than half of the total visitor expenditure for the state, a Destination NSW spokesperson said.

“Major music festivals like Bluesfest play a crucial role in driving this,” they said.

“They drive visitation to our regions and create jobs in regional communities.”

The news of Bluesfest’s closure ignited demand, with 97 per cent of tickets snapped up – and Saturday entry sold out – before gates opened on Thursday afternoon.

On-site parking and camping for 6000 patrons across the four days have also sold out.

Noble has since walked back his “last-ever” comments, calling them an attempt to get the NSW government’s attention.

He is yet to confirm if it is indeed the final curtain for the event.

A successful 2025 event would help to bring hope to people in the Northern Rivers region around Byron Bay, Ms Nolan said.

“You’ll find the community and the people that love Bluesfest have got their fingers crossed, and they’re really hoping it comes back again in 2026,” she said.

Credited with breaking artists including Jack Johnson, Ben Harper and Michael Franti’s Spearhead in Australia, Bluesfest relocated from the centre of Byron Bay to a permanent home at Tyagarah Tea Tree Farm in 2010.

This year’s line-up features headliners including Crowded House, Here Come The Mummies, Tones and I, Grammy-winner Gary Clark Jr, Ocean Alley, Tom Morello, Hilltop Hoods, Missy Higgins and Rag’n’Bone Man.

Bluesfest finishes on Sunday.

Hordes of Australians are jetting off or hitting the road for an extended Easter break, with consecutive public holiday weekends offering a cost-effective option.

More than one-third of the nation is heading away on a holiday, according to the Tourism and Transport Forum.

Some 23 per cent are going away within their own state, nine per cent are travelling interstate while four per cent of people are popping overseas.

Clustered Easter and ANZAC Day public holidays offer a rare chance to turn several days of leave into more than a week, with more than a quarter taking extra time off to extend their break.

While holidays usually mean shelling out for food, transport and accommodation some 58 per cent said cost-of-living pressures loomed over their travel plans, with many taking a shorter break than they originally hoped.

“There’s no mistake about it; Australians are certainly feeling the pinch,” the forum’s chief executive Margy Osman said.

“We’re seeing this reflected in the nation taking shorter trips. By shortening our getaways, we’re also able to travel more frequently.”

The Pureprofile survey of more than 1500 people was conducted in mid March, with more than one in ten respondents still deciding on their Easter plans at that point.

Unfortunately for outdoor explorers and campers, dry and sunny weather in south eastern states is set to shift to cooler conditions over the weekend but anyone in northern areas can expect warm conditions to continue.

That includes the Gold Coast, where Australians searched for accommodation more than anywhere else according to leading travel website Booking.com.

Qantas and Jetstar are expecting some 840,000 passengers and about half were booked with the low-cost carrier alone, making it the airline’s biggest Easter on record.

Virgin Australia has also seen stronger demand, calling in corporate workers to support frontline staff as it transports 400,000 passengers over more than 400 flights each day over the Easter break.

The busiest days for air travel are the Thursday before Easter, Easter Monday and the Sunday following ANZAC Day.

The two major players in the local airline industry nominated Cairns, Hamilton Island and Tasmania as top domestic destinations while New Zealand and Fiji are the most popular international holiday spots.

Some 2.5 million passengers are expected at Sydney airport alone, up nine per cent on last year, making it the busiest Easter since before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sydney Airport CEO Scott Charlton said 99 per cent of passengers have gone through security within ten minutes over the last six months and urged people to check-in online and pre-book parking.

A similar number of jet setters are passing through Melbourne Airport, with international flights over the break up 24 per cent compared to last year.

An Easter long weekend will give Labor and the coalition a chance to reset their campaigns after a taxing few days as leaders traded increasingly heated barbs.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese side-stepped questions over power prices and got tricky with reporters over tax policy while the coalition has had a series of gaffes, including falsely attributing statements to international leaders.  

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton sought to bring the debate back to income tax policy on Thursday as he floated reform to stop bracket creep before conceding it was only an aspiration for the next term.

The coalition has promised to cut the fuel excise in half, saving motorists 25 cents a litre, and give a one-off tax sweetener of up to $1200, but it will repeal Labor’s tax cuts that would give Australians up to $536 a year.

Promising to return bracket creep in the future while repealing tax cuts now made no sense, Mr Albanese said.

“I’ve got an idea for him, how about he commit to not lifting them in the first place?” he told reporters in Brisbane.

Mr Dutton went on the offensive over tax talk, accusing Mr Albanese and Labor of being tricky over Treasury negative gearing modelling.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers admitted he “sought a view” about the policy but added the prime minister denied “commissioning” the research during the Wednesday night leaders’ debate, which was a different thing.

The government had no plans to change negative gearing or capital gains tax concessions, Dr Chalmers said.

Labor attacked the coalition over its own relationship with the truth after Mr Dutton wrongly said Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto had made a public statement about a Russian request to station military planes when he hadn’t.

Mr Dutton admitted he made a mistake but wasn’t the only coalition frontbencher forced into an about-face. 

Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie also backtracked and apologised for comments claiming Russia and China wanted Labor to win the election.

She said the Russian defence minister and Chinese president “both have made very public comments that they do not want to see Peter Dutton as the prime minister” before acknowledging she couldn’t verify those claims.

Some 12 hours later, Senator McKenzie found herself in another tangle as she misattributed a quote from the Chinese premier to the president when defending the crux of her earlier statement.

“It’s pretty clear from President Xi’s public commentary that he finds Albo a very handsome boy, he’s been very complimentary about the prime minister,” she said.

It was Chinese Premier Li Qiang who commented “people were saying that we have a handsome boy coming from Australia” when Mr Albanese visited Beijing.

Independent senator David Pocock said it was prudent for politicians to ensure they had their facts straight when talking about world leaders.

“We keep hearing that we’re in really tense and delicate times when it comes to geopolitics … so you would probably expect people to really think through what they’re saying,” he told AAP.

Climate and energy policy tripped both leaders up in their debate, with Mr Albanese repeatedly refusing to say when power bills would come down and Mr Dutton side-stepping whether climate change impacted natural disasters.

That resulted in accusations he was not being serious about climate action.

He clarified his comments at a press conference on Thursday.

“I believe in climate change and that is a reality, it’s why we’ve adopted our position in relation to net zero by 2050,” he said.

Mr Albanese takes a slight lead over the opposition into the second half of the campaign as Mr Dutton’s support drops, according to the latest poll from Freshwater.

Global headwinds stirred by “erratic” US policy decisions could still hit the Australian jobs market despite latest figures showing only a small uptick in unemployment.

About 30,000 jobs were created in March after a shock 53,000 slump in February, pushing the jobless rate up slightly to 4.1 per cent.

The figure came in under consensus expectations of nearly 40,000 new jobs.

“With employment increasing by 32,000 people and the number of unemployed increasing by 3000 people, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1 per cent for March,” ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick said.

The employment-to-population ratio remained at 64.2 per cent while underemployment was steady at 5.9 per cent, 0.6 percentage points lower than March 2024, and 2.8 percentage points down from March 2020.

The labour market was in a good position but there were clouds on the horizon, Oxford Economics Australia macroeconomic forecaster Sean Langcake said.

“The enormous economic uncertainty generated by erratic changes to US trade policy will weigh heavily on firms’ investment and hiring decisions,” he said.

“Employment growth will slow and now we expect the unemployment rate will climb a little higher over 2025.”

The participation rate decreased to 66.9 per cent in March but remained historically high, just 0.5 per cent below its record.

Monthly hours worked fell 0.3 per cent, dropping for the second month in a row despite the uptick in employment, due in part to extreme weather events including ex-tropical cyclone Alfred.

The employment rebound after February’s slump showed Australia’s jobs market was more resilient than many expected, including officials at the Reserve Bank, IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.

The unemployment rate was well below the RBA’s forecast 4.4 per cent for June, which could stir inflation worries at the central bank.

“Nonetheless, given the downside risks to global growth and softer near-term inflation profile, we expect the RBA to look through today’s jobs data and cut rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in May and in July,” Mr Sycamore said.

With two weeks until quarterly inflation figures are released, VanEck’s head of investments and capital markets Russel Chesler backed expectations of a May rate cut but said calls for three more in 2025 could be overblown. 

“The continued resilience in Australia’s jobs market over the last three years, despite the steep rate hikes, along with continued growth in retail trade and property prices demonstrates … there is little urgency for the RBA to accelerate its rate cut timelines,” he said.

CoredLogic data showed Australian property values lifted 0.4 per cent to new heights in March and retail sales have also been relatively strong, up by 0.2 per cent in February and 4.1 per cent higher year-on-year.

But the expectations of more rate cuts depended on a presumption US tariffs would be particularly damaging to Australia’s economy, Mr Chesler said.

“No one knows what the final tariffs will be nor the impact, in our view a more realistic rate cut scenario for Australia would be two or maybe three cuts this year,” he said.

The ABS will release its all-important quarterly inflation data on April 30, before the RBA’s next rate decision on May 20.

Asian stocks wavered on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of the risk of slowing growth and rising prices due to tariffs, while the uncertainty around US trade policies kept the dollar rooted near three-year lows.

The spotlight stayed on technology shares after a bruising session on Wednesday in the wake of warnings from bellwethers Nvidia and ASML, and ahead of earnings from Taiwan’s TSMC.

Safe haven gold prices remained on the charge, notching up yet another record high in early trading on Thursday, while Powell’s comments that US economic growth appeared to be slowing pushed Treasury yields lower.

In early Asia, stock markets were tentative across the region, after US stocks closed sharply lower. South Korea’s benchmark index inched 0.4 per cent higher, while Taiwan stocks fell 0.5 per cent.

The Nikkei rose 0.7 per cent while the yen weakened as Japan kicked off talks with the US and President Donald Trump, in a surprise move to negotiate directly with the Japanese delegation, said there was “big progress”.

Elsewhere, Powell said the Fed would wait for more data on the economy’s direction before making any changes to interest rates.

“Powell is between a rock and a hard place,” said Tom Graff, chief investment officer at Facet. “The Fed can’t act proactively to stem any potential economic weakness, given that tariffs are likely to also cause inflation.”

“They simply can’t cut rates while inflation is on the rise. This is doubly the case given that inflation is already high.”

All eyes will be on the earnings forecast of the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, to gauge the health of the chip industry.

Chip stocks across the globe were pummelled on Wednesday after Dutch giant ASML warned that tariffs were increasing uncertainty around its outlook for 2025 and 2026.

Also weighing on sentiment was AI pioneer Nvidia warning of a $US5.5 billion ($A8.7 billion) hit after Washington restricted exports of its AI processor tailored for China.

“The chipmakers are very cyclical, so if we go into recession for any reason that’s bad for chipmakers and we could see a contraction in demand,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

“But there is also the implication that if there are tariff barriers or if there are short-term imposed costs, that could also lead to lower demand.”

Chinese stocks fell in early trading as worries of an intensifying US-China trade war dented sentiment. The blue-chip stock index was down 0.5 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.6 per cent.

Beyond chips, investor focus has been squarely on fast evolving trade policies under Trump as markets wait to see if new agreements are reached between the US and its trade partners.

The uncertainty has hamstrung the dollar, with investors dumping US assets, including Treasuries last week due to uncertainty over the erratic implementation of the trade levies.

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield was steady at 4.302 per cent in Asian hours after dropping over 4 basis points in the previous session.

The euro was 0.33 per cent lower at $US1.1364 ($A1.7877)  but was close to the three-year high it touched last week. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six units, was slightly higher on the day at 99.562.

The yen touched a seven-month high earlier in the session before reversing to be 0.5 per cent weaker at 142.60 per dollar after Japan’s economy minister Ryosei Akazawa said foreign exchange had not been discussed at the trade talks in Washington.

In commodities, the spotlight has been on gold prices as it racked up yet another record high, going as high as $US3,357.40 ($A5,281.74) per ounce earlier in the session due to safe-haven flows. Gold was last at $US3,337.4 ($A5,250.3) per ounce.

Oil prices extended gains on the prospect of tighter supply. Brent crude futures rose 0.38 per cent to $US66.1 ($A104.0) a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $US62.83 ($A98.84) a barrel, up 0.58 per cent.

US President Donald Trump says there was “big progress” when he made the surprise move to negotiate directly with a Japanese trade delegation in Washington about the barrage of tariffs he has imposed on global imports.

Japan is one of the first countries to formally kick off negotiations, an early test of Washington’s willingness to cede ground on the duties that have roiled financial markets and stoked fear of recession.

“A Great Honor to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!” Trump said on Wednesday in a social media message that contained no details of the discussions.

Opposite Trump for Wednesday’s talks was Ryosei Akazawa, an ally of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who only took up his first cabinet post late last year in the relatively junior position of economic revitalisation minister.

Tokyo had not expected Trump to participate in what it viewed as a preliminary fact-finding mission, according to sources familiar with Tokyo’s planning, and had been hoping to limit the scope of discussions to trade and investment matters.

Speaking to reporters after the talks, Akazawa gave little away about the details of the discussions but said the parties had agreed to hold a second meeting later this month and that Trump had said getting a deal with Japan was a “top priority”.

The issue of exchange rates, which Trump had previously accused Japan of manipulating to get a trade advantage, was not part of the discussion, he said.

Trump earlier on Wednesday said he would also discuss the issue of how much Tokyo pays towards hosting US troops in Japan, the biggest US overseas deployment.

Akazawa said he would not comment on the specifics of the negotiations but added that he strongly requested a revocation of the tariffs on Japan.

Japan has been hit with 24 per cent levies on its exports to the United States although these rates have, like most of Trump’s tariffs, been paused for 90 days. But a 10 per cent universal rate remains in place as does a 25 per cent duty for cars, a mainstay of Japan’s export-reliant economy.

Bessent has said there is a “first mover advantage” given Washington has said more than 75 countries have requested talks since Trump announced sweeping duties on dozens of countries – both friend and foe – earlier this month.

However, Ishiba on Monday said his country, a close US ally, won’t rush to reach a deal and does not plan to make big concessions. Akazawa said he believed Washington wanted to strike a deal in the 90-day window.

Trump has long complained about the US trade deficit with Japan and other countries, saying American businesses have been disadvantaged by trade practices and intentional efforts by other countries to maintain weak currencies.

Tokyo denies it manipulates its yen currency to gain advantage.

Japan hopes that pledges to expand investment in the US will help to convince the US that the two countries can achieve a “win-win” situation without tariffs, Akazawa said ahead of his departure.

A key crossbencher has urged leaders to think before they speak after a series of diplomatic fumbles marred the election campaign.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton admitted during the Wednesday night leaders’ debate that he made a mistake when he earlier falsely attributed comments to the Indonesian president.

He wrongly said Prabowo Subianto had made a public statement about Russia wanting to station military planes at a base in Papua.

Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie also backtracked and apologised for comments claiming Russia and China wanted Labor to win the election.

She said the Russian defence minister and Chinese president “both have made very public comments that they do not want to see Peter Dutton as the prime minister” before acknowledging she couldn’t verify those claims.

Some 12 hours later, Senator McKenzie found herself in another tangle as she misattributed a quote from the Chinese premier to the president when defending the crux of her earlier statement.

“It’s pretty clear from President Xi’s public commentary that he finds Albo a very handsome boy, he’s been very complimentary about the prime minister,” she told Nine’s Today Show on Thursday.

It was Chinese Premier Li Qiang who commented “people were saying that we have a handsome boy coming from Australia” when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Beijing.

Independent senator David Pocock said it was prudent for politicians to ensure they had their facts straight when talking about world leaders.

“We keep hearing that we’re in really tense and delicate times when it comes to geopolitics … so you would probably expect people to really think through what they’re saying,” he told AAP.

Labor campaign spokesman Jason Clare chastised Mr Dutton for his statements as coalition frontbenchers defended their leader’s about-face, saying Australians wanted a leader who would front up when they made a mistake. 

“The relationship between Australia and Indonesia is critical, if this is not a disqualifying moment, I don’t know what is,” Mr Clare told ABC radio.

Climate and energy policy tripped both leaders up in their debate, with Mr Albanese repeatedly refusing to say when power bills would come down and Mr Dutton side-stepping whether climate change impacted natural disasters.

“I’m not a scientist and I can’t tell you whether the temperature has risen in Thargomindah as a result of climate change,” Mr Dutton said. 

Coalition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume was forced to mop up after the comments on Thursday, saying Mr Dutton believed in climate change and listened to the scientists.

Senator Pocock said neither major party listened to scientists on climate change as “we would be doing a lot more if they were”.

“It’s pretty appalling to have someone who wants to be prime minister in 2025 in a country that stands to lose a lot from climate inaction, not being stronger on climate,” he said.

Mr Albanese takes a slight lead over the opposition into the second half of the campaign as Mr Dutton’s support drops, according to a Freshwater poll published in the Australian Financial Review.

Labor and the coalition are tied at 50-50 in the two-party preferred vote – a one per cent improvement for the government since the start of the campaign – while Mr Dutton dropped in support as preferred prime minister.

Further analysis from the pollsters indicated Labor could still finish short of a majority with 71 seats, compared to 66 seats for the coalition under the same modelling.

Other recent polls have put Labor well ahead on a two-party preferred basis, including a lead for the government of 54.5 to 45.5 per cent in a recent Roy Morgan survey.

Chinese e-marketplace Temu and fast-fashion retailer Shein will raise prices next week as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and crackdown on low-value imports push up costs for the companies known for their budget offerings.

In nearly identical letters to customers this week, the two companies said they will be increasing prices starting April 25 and encouraged shoppers to purchase “now at today’s rates”.

Shein and Temu, sellers of everything from toys to smartphones, had grown rapidly in the US thanks in part to the “de minimis” exemption that allowed duty-free entry for merchandise priced below $US800 ($A1260), enabling the companies to keep prices low.

However, their business model has come under pressure from a recent executive order signed by Trump that closes the trade loophole and goes into effect on May 2.

“Due to recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs, our operating expenses have gone up. To keep offering the products you love without compromising on quality, we will be making price adjustments starting April 25, 2025,” the statements from both companies said.

Shein dresses are currently priced between $US6 and $US91 on its website while Temu sells them at anywhere between $US2.48 and $US210 online.

Buyers beware – it costs an average of $1 million to enter the housing market in most major cities as political leaders try to woo potential homeowners.

Adelaide has become the fifth capital city to break into the million-dollar club, with the median house price in South Australia’s capital now $1,000,202.

Domain’s March House Price Report, released on Thursday, revealed the city of churches has joined Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra on the million-dollar list. 

The highest median house price in the country is an eye-watering $1.7 million in Sydney.

While house prices across the country continue to rise, the pace of growth has slowed to a third of what it was in 2024.

There were higher levels of housing supply in cities such as Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth but they were not enough to bring down record prices nationally, Domain’s chief of research Nicola Powell said.

“What we have seen over time is a widening gap between where home prices are and the capacity of buyers to pay for a home,” she told AAP.

“The element of urgency is starting to relax amongst buyers because they have more choice.

“It is a good thing supply is rising but that doesn’t mean we still don’t have a housing crisis.”

Dr Powell said it was an opportune time to buy, with both major parties putting forward policies to lure first homebuyers ahead of the May 3 election and expectations the Reserve Bank would cut interest rates.

Canberra is the best bet for those looking to rent, recording the lowest rent increase of all capitals in the first quarter of 2025.

It was a welcome reprieve for tenants after the city recorded the highest quarterly increase in rent of any capital in the December 2024 quarter.

The average price to rent nationwide is about $650 a week – five per cent higher than in 2024 and an extra $1560 a year for tenants to fork out.

“Sydney remains the most expensive city to rent in, with renters paying an additional $70 per week,” REA Group’s senior economist Anne Flaherty said.

“Compared with Melbourne, a renter in Sydney is typically paying $9100 more per year in rent.”