Russia says an oil tanker ‌carrying 100,000 metric tons of crude oil has arrived in Cuba and that it will stand by its friends by working on further supplies despite a US blockade of the Communist-run island.

The United States cut off Venezuela’s oil exports to Cuba after toppling Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on January ‌3, and US President ‌Donald Trump ⁠threatened to slap punishing tariffs on any other country that sent ​crude to Cuba. 

But Trump on Sunday signalled he was reversing course and expressed sympathy for the Cuban people’s need for energy. 

“If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem, whether it’s Russia … and if other countries want to do it,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

“One boatload of oil, that’s all it is,” Trump added.

The Anatoly Kolodkin was waiting to offload at the port of Matanzas, Russia’s transport ministry said. 

The Kremlin said it had raised the issue of the tanker during talks ⁠with the US but that Russia felt it ‌had ​a duty to support “friends” in Cuba. 

“This issue was indeed raised in advance during contacts with our ​American partners,” Kremlin ‌spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Cuba has not received an oil tanker in three months, according to ​President Miguel Diaz-Canel, and its energy crisis has caused blackouts across the country of 10 million. 

Health officials say the crisis has increased the mortality risk for cancer patients, ​especially ​children. 

Cuba became dependent on the ​Soviet Union for oil after its communist revolution in ‌1959, and needs imported fuel oil and diesel to generate power.

Asked if further Russian shipments would follow, Peskov said: “In the desperate situation that Cubans now find themselves in, this, of course, cannot leave us indifferent so we will continue to work on this.”

LSEG ship-tracking data showed the Russian ​tanker had left the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk on March 8 and ​was now moving along Cuba’s ⁠northern shore. 

with DPA

Brent crude oil has risen three per cent and is on track for a record monthly rise ‌, while global stocks are in limbo as investors dig in for a Gulf conflict they fear will bring a spike in inflation and the risk of recession to much of the globe.

Shares across Asia fell on Monday, ‌with Japan’s Nikkei index closing down 2.8 per cent, in a region more reliant on Gulf oil exports. 

European stock markets were firmer in early trading and Wall Street futures pointed to gains, although they were slim given ‌a recent sell-off.

Investors were assessing conflicting developments.

The Financial Times late on Sunday quoted President Donald Trump saying the US could seize Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, from where Iran exports much of its oil, but also that a ceasefire could come quickly.

Pakistan said it was preparing to host “meaningful talks” to end the conflict over Iran in the coming days, even though Tehran accused Washington of preparing a land assault as the US military builds up forces in the region.

“Oil is the lightning rod right now,” said Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham, adding a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was ‌the key to calming world ‌markets.

“The biggest challenge for us ⁠as investors today is that you’ve got one of the widest ranges of potential outcomes,” he said, adding he did not expect ​a prolonged conflict as he believed Trump had a “pain threshold” for market losses.

Madison Cartwright, senior geo-economics analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz nonetheless gave it little incentive to concede and the bank expected the war to run until at least June.

The clampdown on the Strait has sent prices for oil, gas, fertiliser, plastic and aluminium surging, along with fuel for planes and shipping. 

Prices for food, pharmaceuticals and petrochemical products are all set to rise.

That is particularly bad news for Asia, as much of the region is highly dependent on energy from the Middle East.

MSCI’s broadest index of ⁠Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.8 per cent.

European stocks were last up 0.3 per cent, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures pointed ‌to gains of about 0.5 per cent ​each.

“The longer the Strait remains closed, the sharper the drawdown in buffer supplies that could spark dramatic increases in the price of crude oil, natural gas and other commodities,” warned Bruce Kasman, global head ​of economics at ‌JPMorgan.

“A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising towards $US150 ($A219)/bbl and constraints on industrial consumers of energy supply.”

Brent crude rose three per cent to $US116 ($A169) a ​barrel, on course for a 60 per cent gain in March that would outpace the monthly jump that followed Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. 

US crude climbed two per cent to $101.67.

The inflationary threat has led investors to revise up the outlook for interest rates almost everywhere. 

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have a chance to air his views ​at ​an event later on Monday and the influential head of the New York Fed, ​John Williams, is also speaking.

Data on US retail sales, manufacturing and payrolls this week will provide ‌an update on how the economy is faring. 

The energy shock, combined with pressure on fiscal budgets from higher borrowing costs and the need for more defence spending, has hit sovereign bond markets. 

Ten-year US Treasury yields were last at 4.3959 per cent.

Heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit the US dollar as the world’s most liquid currency. 

The US is also a net energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over Europe and much of Asia.

The dollar index was trading near a 10-month high at 100.26, broadly flat on the day. 

Yet more warnings of possible intervention from the Japanese authorities did see the dollar ease ​0.3 per cent to 159.775 yen.

It crossed the 160 barrier last week for the first time since July 2024, when Japan last acted to buy yen.

The euro dipped 0.1 per cent to $1.1493, not ​far from a March trough of $1.1409.

In commodity markets, gold gained ⁠0.9 per cent to $4534 an ounce, having recently drawn scant support as a haven or as a hedge against inflation risks. 

China’s popular DeepSeek artificial intelligence chatbot has suffered its longest outage ‌since the viral rise of its flagship R1 and ‌V3 models.

DeepSeek’s status website showed the chatbot suffered a “major outage” lasting seven hours and 13 minutes from the early hours of Monday until 10.33am local time (0233 GMT), when ‌the incident was ‌marked ⁠as resolved.

As per company protocol, no ​reason was given for the outage.

Such incidents can be caused by a wide range of issues, from malfunctioning servers to bugs stemming from an update ⁠to the AI chatbot.

DeepSeek ‌data shows its API service, a function mostly used by ​developers to ‌integrate the chatbot into custom applications, was hit by consecutive ​day-long outages in late January 2025 at the height of its viral moment.

But its webpage, ​where ​ordinary users can ​ask the chatbot questions directly, had ‌not experienced a major outage longer than two hours until Monday, according to the startup’s status website.

The global AI industry is eagerly awaiting the release ​of DeepSeek’s next-generation model, but the company has yet to indicate a timeline.

Rio Tinto says operations ‌at three of its four Pilbara iron ore port ‌terminals have resumed after Tropical Cyclone Narelle swept through Western Australia’s ‌Pilbara region, disrupting shipments but leaving its annual guidance unchanged.

Cyclone Narelle brought heavy rain and power outages to Australia’s northeast coast in March, forcing the miner to temporarily ‌shut two ‌bauxite mines. ⁠

South32 also suspended operations at its Gemco ​manganese mine, co-owned by Anglo American.

Narelle barrelled into WA’s northwest coast, causing port closures in the iron-rich Pilbara region.

Rio, the world’s largest iron ore producer, said ship loading ⁠at three terminals ‌resumed ​on Saturday following port closures on March 24.

Shipping at ​Cape Lambert A, ‌the fourth terminal currently undergoing repairs, is expected to ​recommence “in the coming days”, the miner said.

Two tropical cyclones in February and March are estimated to have ​affected ​iron ore shipments ​for the firm by about ‌eight million metric tons, Rio said, adding it has “identified a pathway to recover around half of these losses”.

Rio’s guidance for its Pilbara iron ore shipments for 2026 remained ​unchanged at 323 million tons to 338 ​million tons.

A former Sydney nanny accused of carrying out torture and kidnapping for a notorious Chilean dictator claims she will be tried for crimes against humanity if she is extradited to her home country.

Adriana Elcira Rivas, who emigrated to Australia in the late 1970s and worked as a nanny in Bondi, has been locked in a seven-year legal battle since her arrest by NSW Police in 2019 at the request of Chile.

She is accused of working for intelligence services during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet and playing a role in the disappearance and torture of seven people, including a woman who was five months’ pregnant.

Rivas, now in her 70s, denies the allegations and has fought for years to block her extradition to the South American nation on seven charges of aggravated kidnapping.

In her last-ditch fight in the Federal Court on Monday, her barrister said the Australian government failed to appreciate how the offences had been characterised by Chile.

“It is evident that the Chilean legal system would prosecute or sentence the applicant on the basis she committed crimes against humanity,” Sean Baron Levi argued.

Such a prosecution means Rivas could theoretically face the death penalty, he added while noting there was no suggestion such a charge would actually be sought.

Chile had provided assurances to the Australian government the elderly woman would not be tried for any offences other than the seven counts of aggravated kidnapping, the court was told.

Extradition was sought for those charges, which allegedly took place in the context of broader crimes against humanity, Australian government lawyer Trent Glover SC said. 

Kidnapping was an offence in both Chile and Australia at the time of the alleged offences and thus satisfies the requirements of extradition, unlike crimes against humanity, he said.

If kidnapping is the proper characterisation of the charges, then the extradition is still invalid because the time limitation on prosecuting such offences had lapsed, the ex-nanny’s barrister argued.

However Chile advised the Australian government the statute of limitations would not apply to her charges because they fell under the definition of crimes against humanity, the court was told.

The characterisation of Rivas’ alleged offending is the central question in her two-day legal battle to remain in Australia. 

The courtroom was filled with families and loved-ones of people who were killed or vanished during the Pinochet regime.

Adriana Navarro, who represents the families, said they were eager to see a speedy resolution to the matter after years of waiting for justice and truth.

“It’s been a difficult task for the families … we haven’t been able to obtain much information,” she said outside court.

“We know there’s a commitment now by the Australian government to send Rivas to Chile and that’s what we want, that’s what the families want.”

Answers have been elusive for many, with Ms Navarro noting 1100 Chileans’ remains have still not been found after 50 years.

“We have a very good idea of what happened to them and we think Ms Rivas may do too,” she told AAP.

Rivas is accused of being part of a Direccion de Inteligencia Nacional brigade that physically and psychologically tortured members of the communist party, which opposed Pinochet’s regime.

Pinochet violently overthrew the elected socialist government in a 1973 coup and ruled the country with an iron fist until 1990, outlawing political parties and exiling thousands of dissidents.

About 40,000 people were killed, tortured or imprisoned for political reasons during the dictator’s reign.

One of Australia’s top economic soothsayers has a grim prediction if the war in the Middle East is not resolved soon.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham forecasts Australia’s economy will contract in the June and September quarters if oil prices spike to $US140 a barrel and stay above $US100 a barrel through 2026.

That would mean the nation’s first recession, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, since the early 1990s and Paul Keating’s “recession we had to have”.

In the “ugly scenario” envisaged by Mr Bloxham, higher-for-longer inflation as a result of elevated oil prices and higher interest rates eat away at household income and dampen consumption.

Unemployment jumps to 5.5 per cent, as the Reserve Bank, fearful of rising inflation expectations, hikes interest rates a further two times.

“Clearly, we see tougher times ahead,” said Mr Bloxham, who was previously crowned Australia’s top economic forecaster by the Australian Financial Review.

“How tough is uncertain.”

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock recently warned a recession was possible if inflation proved too hard to get under control.

HSBC’s base case is less dire than its worst-case scenario with unemployment peaking at five per cent from its current 4.3 per cent.

But that outcome depends on the Middle East conflict being resolved at some point and oil prices declining.

In that case, Australia’s economy was predicted to contract for only one quarter and the RBA to hike interest rates once more.

Other forecasters also see some relief in oil prices within the next few months but are starting to countenance similar doomsday scenarios if the war drags on.

Economists at Commonwealth Bank have produced a downside scenario in which the benchmark oil price hits $US150 a barrel and inflation rises as high as 6.4 per cent by June.

Brent crude oil futures climbed 4.8 per cent to more than $US112 a barrel over the weekend as the Iran-backed Houthis threatened to close shipping in the Red Sea and the market braced for a more protracted conflict.

Given expectations of a longer conflict and early signs of strong pass-through of oil costs to consumer prices across the economy, Westpac upped its interest rate forecast from one to three more hikes.

“This shift reflects the longer disruption to and slower recovery in fuel supply (previously) … with the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed for eight weeks and traffic recovering only slowly after that,” the bank’s chief economist Luci Ellis said.

“It also reflects the surprisingly rapid pass-through of higher fuel and other oil-derived product prices into other prices in Australia.”

The government’s decision on Monday to halve the fuel excise reduced the headline inflation forecast in the near-term, but only pushed the peak of 5.4 per cent out to later in the June quarter, Dr Ellis said.

For firms already struggling with rising inflation before the war, the energy shock has kicked off a damaging new business cycle, Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens said.

“The Australian economy is running on empty,” he said in a business outlook report on Monday.

“Higher fuel prices and a domestic economy that struggles to contain inflation at modest rates of economic growth are different dimensions of a supply crisis story.”

Dr Ellis noted there was a possibility the forecasts were overly pessimistic and fuel supplies recovered faster than current assumptions.

New Zealand is going shopping for an insurance quota of fuel as the government insists its stocks are in “good heart”.

Like all nations, New Zealand is navigating the looming energy crisis arising from the US-Israeli attacks on Iran and its retaliations.

It is particularly vulnerable to price and availability shocks, given it imports all petrol, diesel and jet fuel and sits in the South Pacific at the end of the supply chain.

Prime Minister Chris Luxon is no stranger to these challenges, given his past role as Air New Zealand chief executive.

“I’ve been through fuel crises before in my former life,” he told reporters in Wellington on Monday.

“I can tell you, it ain’t pleasant trying to run an airline with 30 per cent of the fuel you need for several months.

“So it’s really important we get our head in a mindset sense, into where this thing could go.”

The NZ government has also devised a four-stage escalation protocol for the crisis, which places the country at the initial “monitor” stage.

In-country stocks of petrol and diesel have improved in the past week, standing at 27.9 days of petrol, 21.7 days of diesel and 25.3 days of jet fuel.

Similar amounts of each fuel are also in transit to NZ, giving Mr Luxon a degree of confidence.

“This is not COVID 2.0. People are not going to be sitting at home baking sourdough,” he told Newstalk ZB.

“The kids are going to school. It’s business as usual at the moment.”

Mr Luxon said Kiwis should be “reassured” by the current situation.

“We are doing what we said we would do, which is secure fuel supply. We have ample stocks on hand,” he said.

“We are meeting our minimum stock holding obligations. We have seen no signs yet from our oil importers that actually there are any challenges or issues with that. That’s great.”

The government is exploring “additional purchase of stocks through to June”, as well as new diesel storage facilities at Marsden Point, an oil refinery shuttered in 2022.

However, it won’t be following the Australian route of subsidising fuel to ease cost-of-living concerns.

The average price of a litre of unleaded 91 was $NZ3.42 ($A2.86) on Monday, according to aggregator website Gasly – up 36 per cent in March.

Diesel has risen by 86 per cent to $NZ3.44 ($A2.82).

While the Australian government announced a $2.55 billion plan to halve the fuel excise for the next three months, Mr Luxon has dismissed that option as bad policy.

“It’s poorly targeted. It actually benefits high-income households and it actually encourages fuel use when it’s constrained,” he said.

“We’re doing everything we can to minimise the impacts on increasing inflation and rising debt.”

Australia will look to expand its trade deal with India, as nations try to diversify relationships amid global uncertainty.

Trade Minister Don Farrell said the government will again hold negotiations for the Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement.

“We’re going to have another crack in India in the next few weeks,” he told the National Press Club on Monday.

An existing trade agreement with the 1.4 billion person-strong nation came into force in December 2022.

That deal led to tariffs being eliminated on more than 85 per cent of Australian goods estimated to be worth more than $12 billion each year.

Trade with India has increased by 17 per cent since.

Spruiking the government’s free trade agreement with the European Union, Senator Farrell said he was disappointed by criticism levelled by red meat producers who argued the deal falls short in delivering a significant increase in market access.

“We’ve established a really good relationship with the Europeans,” he said.

“There was an element of distrust having rejected the agreement on two occasions, but I think that’s passed now, and they (Europeans) are satisfied that we are reliable trading partners.”

The agreement allows 30,600 tonnes of new beef access per year, an eight-fold increase on Australia’s previously guaranteed access.

The trade minister said he was hopeful the deal will be ratified by the end of 2026.

“I would not rule out, given the enthusiasm both of Australia and Europe at the senior levels, that we get this deal done by the end of the year,” he said.

“With the UAE agreement, we managed to do that in less than 12 months.

“I would hope that that sets the template for what we can do with the Europeans, because the sooner we can get all of our products in the into Europe, the better.”

Asked if Labor was concerned the Trump administration’s tariffs might enshrine how the US does business, Senator Farrell said the revenue raised by taxes on imports might prove too alluring for all future American governments.

“My fear is that the Democrats might say … we can’t give up this trillions of dollars worth of extra (money),” he said.

World Trade Organization talks have ended in deadlock after Brazil blocked a bid by the US and ‌other countries to secure an extension to a moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions like digital downloads.

The talks at a WTO meeting in ‌Cameroon were seeking to bridge differences over extending the e-commerce moratorium, and agree to a plan for broader reform of the organisation.

Ministers there had been trying ‌to extend the moratorium, which is due to expire this month, by four years plus an additional buffer year to 2031, diplomats said.

Talks would now continue in Geneva after the impasse on prolonging the moratorium, WTO conference chair Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana said.

Britain’s business and trade secretary Peter Kyle said the failure to get an agreement was “a major setback for global trade”.

“This is not the ⁠outcome we ‌wanted. ​The UK worked ​hard to deliver ‌the change that WTO ​needs and the failure to ​get ​a collective ​decision this week ‌is a major setback for global trade,” Kyle said in ​a statement.

In what is seen as a test for the WTO’s relevance, after a year of trade turmoil and major disruptions due to the Iran war, diplomats said ministers got stuck on extending the moratorium beyond more ‌than two years following ‌objections from Brazil.

Diplomats had been working throughout Sunday to close the gaps between Brazil, which had originally ​sought a two year extension, and the US which wanted a permanent extension, by drafting a proposed document of a four year extension with a one year sunset buffer, concluding in 2031.

Brazil later proposed a four year extension, with a review clause half way through, however, that was not supported, two diplomats told Reuters.

A US official said Brazil had opposed a “near-consensus document”.

“It’s not US vs Brazil. It’s Brazil and Turkey v 164 members,” a US official said.

“The US wanted the ⁠sky,” a Brazilian diplomat told Reuters, adding that Brazil wanted to remain prudent in ‌renewing the moratorium ​by two years, like in previous ministerial conferences.

“In four or five years’ time, no one will be able to predict what e-commerce will be about, and ​this has ‌an influence on a number of countries’ policies,” they added

Another diplomat said that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer made delegates “uncomfortable” as he suggested there “would be ​consequences”, if the US did not get a long-term extension to the moratorium.

Business leaders say an extension is vital to guarantee predictability, fearing duties could otherwise be introduced. It is also seen as key to securing US support for the WTO.

After initial ​resistance ​from some WTO members, a new draft of the reform ​roadmap, that provides a timeline for progress and sets out ‌the key issues to address was close to being agreed, three diplomats said.

Those include improving decision-making in a consensus-based system that has long been stymied by a few countries, and the trade benefits extended to developing countries.

A declaration on reform will also be sent to Geneva for further discussion, the WTO conference chair said.

Russia’s Baltic Ust-Luga port, one of its largest petroleum ‌export hubs, has been damaged again by a Ukrainian drone attack which ‌sparked a blaze later brought under control.

It followed several Ukrainian ‌drone strikes last week on Russia’s western energy corridor when facilities at the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk came under fire, igniting storage tanks and forcing a suspension of oil and oil product loadings.

The regional governor of ‌Leningrad said ‌firefighters had brought ⁠the fire at the port and nearby sites under control ​on Sunday.

Ukraine’s SBU security agency said long-range drones struck an oil terminal at Ust-Luga.

It added in a statement that the strike caused “serious damage” and a fire at the port.

The recent attacks have caused severe ⁠oil supply disruption for Russia, the world’s ‌second-largest ​oil exporter, and have come just as oil prices exceeded $US100 ($A145) a barrel ​due to the ‌Iran war.

“Additional firefighting resources from the Leningrad region and St Petersburg, including ​two fire trains, have been involved in extinguishing the fire at the port,” Regional Governor Alexander Drozdenko wrote on Telegram on Sunday.

A ​residence ​had been damaged in ​a nearby settlement, he said.

Drozdenko had earlier in ‌the day said waves of Ukrainian drones had hit the area.

The port, operated by Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, handles around 700,000 barrels per day of oil exports, and, according to sources, shipped 32.9 million metric tons ​of oil products in 2025.

Reuters was unable to immediately verify ​the scale of ⁠the damage.

Meanwhile, a Russian strike on the eastern Ukrainian city ‌of Kramatorsk killed three people and ‌injured 13 on Sunday, police said.

Ukraine’s national police said a boy of 13 was among the dead.

A statement ‌said ‌Russian ⁠forces used glide bombs in ​the strike on Kramatorsk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is seeking support from Gulf ‌states for ‌Ukraine’s war against ⁠Russia as western military aid faces fresh uncertainty ​and Kyiv struggles to cover its budget deficit and fund domestic weapons production.

Kyiv has offered its air-defence expertise and drone technology to countries seeking to counter Iran’s drone attacks.

“From our own ⁠experience, we know that without ‌a ​unified system, it is simply impossible to set up full-fledged protection ​of people and ‌critical infrastructure,” Zelenskiy wrote.