Inflation data this week will arrive too late for the Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting but it appears the RBA has already run out of patience.

Its rate-setters usually prefer to wait for quarterly inflation data before making a call, having done so out of cycle once since 2023.

But they are almost universally expected to hike the cash rate to 4.6 per cent on Tuesday rather than wait for the August numbers on Wednesday or the September quarter figures to land on October 28.

This would represent the highest benchmark borrowing rate since November 2011.

Money markets have almost fully priced in a September hike.

Expectations have steadily firmed since the release last month of unexpectedly hot inflation figures.

Oil prices have since climbed, while the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have all upped rates.

More evidence has also emerged that booming investment in AI is adding to excess demand.

But arguably the biggest change in the interim is how the market thinks the Reserve Bank will respond to above-target inflation – what economists call the bank’s “reaction function”.

Recent speaking engagements by governor Michele Bullock and other top officials show the thinking of the bank’s leadership has shifted.

While they might previously have been willing to await further data to assess how their three previous hikes were impacting the economy, they’re now more determined to bring inflation down, even at the expense of jobs.

“Whereas previously the full employment mandate was getting a greater focus, we expect the long period of core inflation above the target mid-point means the RBA is losing patience with getting inflation back to target,” HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said.

Morgan Stanley’s Australia economist Chris Read expects the board to vote unanimously in favour of a hike.

“This would mark a shift from its post-COVID approach, which allowed a slower return of inflation to target to limit labour market downside,” he said.

More rate hikes could follow, with November likely, depending on how strong inflation data comes in on Wednesday and in October.

Commonwealth Bank senior economist Trent Saunders expects annual headline inflation to lift from 3.5 to four per cent, reflecting a spike in fuel prices.

But he anticipates trimmed mean inflation – a measure of underlying price growth more closely watched by the Reserve Bank – to be unchanged at 3.6 per cent.

The real test ahead of the November meeting will be that September quarter print in late October.

Wednesday’s data will provide more insight into the quarterly outcome.

If CBA’s forecast were correct, it would suggest a one per cent rise in the trimmed mean for the September quarter, Mr Saunders said.

“We suspect a (quarterly) outcome of one per cent would prompt a follow-up rate hike in November, depending on what we learn about the RBA’s reaction function at Tuesday’s board meeting,” he said.

Household spending data for August will be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.

Consumption has held up surprisingly strongly in recent months, despite rising cost-of-living pressures and depressed household sentiment.

Building approvals and private sector credit data will be released on Wednesday, before trade figures and job vacancies on Thursday round out a busy week for the domestic economy.

Oil prices and a surge in Treasury yields have meanwhile left Wall Street investors edgy but this hasn’t stopped indices lifting on the back of AI-related tech stocks.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.51 per cent to end Friday at 7,743.41 points, the Nasdaq gained 0.48 per cent to 27,068.72 and the Dow Jones rose 0.93 per cent to 51,828.62 points.

Australian share futures were virtually static, picking up 3.0 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 11,783.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index fell 0.43 per cent on Friday to 8,665, its lowest level since June 11, while the broader All Ordinaries dropped 0.58 per cent to 8,845.6.

The United States and China have agreed to reduce tariffs on ‌goods and launch a dialogue on AI, both countries said following President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington.

The tariff reductions would apply ‌to $US30 billion ($A43 billion) worth of US exports such as agricultural goods, wood and cosmetics, as well as US imports including small appliances, toys, decorations, a White House statement said on Friday.

“The two countries reached consensus on recommendations for more favorable tariff treatment for $US30 billion ($A43 billion) of non-sensitive goods in each direction,” the White House said.

The three-day summit between Xi and President Donald Trump, which ended on Friday, showcased personal diplomacy ‌rather than big public ‌breakthroughs. Xi has ⁠since landed in Beijing, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported on Saturday.

The two sides ​also agreed to set up a trade council and extend the outcomes of earlier talks in Kuala Lumpur, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

The agreement follows a move by the world’s two largest economies to extend by two months a trade truce that had been due to expire on November 10, allowing more time to work on a potentially bigger trade deal, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said ⁠on Wednesday.

“This historic visit enriched the constructive and stable China-US relationship, upheld ‌the overall ​stability of bilateral ties, opened a new chapter in China-US relations, and will have a far-reaching impact on world peace and ​development,” Chinese Foreign Minister ‌Wang Yi said in a statement.

On artificial intelligence, the two sides agreed to hold a dialogue on ​the technology’s risks and benefits, with the next round of discussions set for November, and to set up a communication channel for AI-related incidents, the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the White House said.

The White House said that the ​leaders ​had agreed to use the term “super intelligence” in place ​of “artificial intelligence.”

In a separate statement, the Chinese ministry said that Beijing valued ‌Washington’s use of the new term.

As AI technology continues to advance, the two sides should step up exchanges and work toward consensus in line with new developments, it said.

The two sides also agreed to support each other in hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting and the Group of 20 summit, with both leaders planning to attend the gatherings hosted by the other.

On foreign ​policy, the leaders agreed that Iran should fulfil its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, and that no country or entity ​should impose transit tolls on international ⁠waterways, both countries said.

China has pushed back against the United States in its speech at the UN General Assembly, saying sovereignty of countries in the Gulf should be respected and urging the “relevant country” to stop threatening Cuba and ‌lift its blockade on it.

Vice President Han Zheng did not mention the US by name in his remarks. The US has launched a pressure campaign on Cuba that has largely blocked oil from reaching the island. The US war on Iran started with US-Israeli strikes in February.

The comments stood in sharp contrast to the bonhomie on display ‌earlier this week ‌at the ⁠White House, where President Donald Trump feted Chinese leader Xi Jinping with military flyovers ​and at a lavish state dinner.

“Major countries should have special responsibilities for safeguarding international peace and security, and they should take the lead in complying with the rules, upholding rule of law, and doing what’s right,” Han said.

“China holds that the sovereignty and security of countries in the Middle East, including the Gulf, should be respected.”

Trump warned Xi ⁠against providing support to Iran during the Washington talks and ‌received assurances ​that China would not do so, the US ambassador to China said on Friday.

The warning followed reports that ​Beijing had ‌supplied Iran with shoulder-fired air-defence missile launchers and that Tehran had found ways to evade sanctions on its oil ​sales with Chinese help.

On Cuba, Han said: “China urges the relevant country to immediately stop using threat of force against Cuba and immediately and completely lift the blockade and ​sanctions against ​Cuba.”

Cuba’s electrical grid suffered a total ​collapse earlier this month, plunging the nation into darkness and ‌leaving millions without power as the US presses its blockade.

Cuba’s aging power generation system has been under severe strain from fuel shortages and decrepit infrastructure for years, but a US-imposed oil blockade that began in January has worsened blackouts and led to frequent grid collapses.

Han also used the speech to portray China as a reliable partner on ​the global stage and a steadfast defender of developing nations.

“China holds that all countries, big or small, ​are equal members of the international ⁠community, and that world affairs should be handled by all through consultation,” said ​Han.

China and the US have agreed to set up a channel for handling AI-related incidents and accelerate work on military crisis communications following a three-day summit between their leaders in Washington, both sides say.

The two sides agreed to keep working together on a board of trade on selected bilateral trade issues, with the White House saying on Saturday that the board went into operation this week.

The summit produced no major breakthroughs, but some experts say the steps towards greater co-operation were still considered important, allowing the two powers to set up working groups that could prevent problems escalating.

Chinese President Xi Jinping landed back in Beijing on Saturday, according to Xinhua.

During the visit, President Donald Trump was remarkably warm to Xi, despite having escalated a trade war with China in 2025 that had global repercussions.

The two sides agreed to sign a memorandum of understanding on strengthening crisis communications and preventing crises between the two militaries, China’s foreign ministry said on Saturday in its readout.

The one-page statement from the Chinese side was light on details.

Both sides will set up a communication mechanism for artificial intelligence-related incidents, to discuss related risks and benefits, with an AI-specific dialogue scheduled for November.

The statement said both sides would continue to work together on the pledge to reduce reciprocal tariffs on roughly $US30 billion ($A43 billion) worth of goods.

During the summit, the two leaders agreed to extend a trade truce by two months.

The White House statement said China agreed to import at least 10 million tonnes of coal from the US in 2027 and 2028.

Most of the reduction in tariffs is aimed at non-sensitive goods, such as agricultural products or holiday decorations.

The statement from the White House also said the two sides continued to work on American concerns about rare earths supply, “with the goal of ensuring shipment levels return to appropriate levels”.

China put export controls on rare earths in 2025 in response to the US tariffs, cutting the supply sent to the US and other countries.

Both sides agreed to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Shenzhen, China, in November, and then later at the G20 at the Trump National Doral Miami golf club in Florida.

Both also said Iran should honour its stated commitment to not develop nuclear weapons, and that no country should charge a toll on international waterways, in a reference to the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen significantly reduced traffic since the US war with Iran began.

The US statement also said it welcomed China’s move to add export controls for an additional two precursor chemicals for fentanyl, and both noted that law enforcement had been able to make arrests in fentanyl-related cases recently.

Although the visit produced no major breakthroughs on the countries’ fundamental differences, analysts said the incremental steps were noteworthy.

“Personal diplomacy between the two leaders is important, but the emphasis on working-level engagement, military-to-military dialogue and crisis-management mechanisms suggests an effort to make that stability more durable and institutionalised,” said Wang Zichen, deputy secretary-general of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization.

AI agents being able to hack into US government websites is further proof countries need to work together on safeguards, the prime minister says.

Anthony Albanese reiterated calls for an international response after revelations an Open AI agent infiltrated US education and commerce department sites.

It also hacked the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Open AI said the incident was not a breach but further evidence of the technology acting unpredictably.

Mr Albanese said the incident confirmed a multilateral approach to dealing with AI was essential.

“There needs to be an appropriate national response as well as an international response to make sure humans stay in charge of this new and emerging technology,” he said in Sydney upon returning from the US on Saturday.

“It’s up to Open AI to state why it is then that there are now multiple cases where this has occurred.”

Mr Albanese landed back in Australia after a week in New York, where he spoke at the UN on the need for countries to put in place measures to rein in AI.

It was during the trip where the prime minister confirmed on Thursday, Australian time, that an Open AI agent hacked into a Medicare statistics website.

That hack took place in June but took until early September for Open AI to inform the federal government via a public email inbox.

The prime minister spoke with Open AI chief executive Sam Altman by phone while in New York, with the tech boss admitting the company had not done enough.

“(The US hack) is not surprising because if you have an AI agent act independently in the way it did here in Australia, it would make common sense that would have occurred in other places,” Mr Albanese said.

Australia was one of more than 20 countries signatory to a joint statement calling for countries to work together to enact global AI standards and ensure human control.

However, US President Donald Trump used a speech at the UN to lash out at calls to put the brakes on AI.

The prime minister said there was a national interest in shaping how AI was used and regulated in Australia.

“We can’t stop (AI) happening, it’s here now and the revelations this week just confirm this,” he said.

“That’s why we have to be in a position to play a role in how this new technology rolls out.”

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates believes artificial intelligence could eventually be responsible for “a billion deaths”.

He made the comment in an interview that aired on Friday, calling for the technology to be regulated.

“AI is certainly powerful enough to drive events that … cause a billion deaths,” he told NBC when asked whether he thought AI was powerful enough to end all of humanity.

“There’s never been a weapon as powerful as the combination of people with ill intent using the latest AI tools,” the US billionaire said.

Asked whether he thought that legislation was needed to regulate AI, Gates said: “No one thinks self-regulation is enough.”

“You need law enforcement and the politicians to get into the discussion about what safeguards and monitoring look like.”

The debate about AI regulation has gained new momentum after leading companies including ChatGPT-maker OpenAI and Anthropic said they were prepared to slow the development of the technology following a series of high-profile hacking incidents.

An Israeli company aiming to harness artificial intelligence to screen unborn babies for hundreds of genetic anomalies is set to debut on the Australian stock exchange.

Identifai Genetics will float on October 13 at a market capitalisation of $38.4 million.

This follows an initial public offering poised to raise $10 million to help fund commercialisation of its next-generation pre-natal tests.

The Tel Aviv-based company was founded on the research conducted by Professor Noam Shomron, head of the functional genomics team at Tel Aviv University.

“He’s world-renowned in genetics and genomics,” Identifai boss Eyal Miller told AAP during a video interview this week.

“He was the one who came up with the idea to develop AI and machine learning specifically for prenatal genetic testing.”

Identifai is looking to expand on self-funded non-invasive pregnancy tests, which have been offered to pregnant women since about 2012 to screen unborn children for a handful of chromosomal abnormalities such as Down syndrome.

Identifai’s Windrose test uses a single maternal blood draw taken as early as nine weeks of pregnancy to screen for more than 280 inherited genetic conditions.

It then utilises a machine learning algorithm to compare the fetus’s cell-free DNA with that of its mother to detect disease-causing mutations.

“The idea is that even if it’s one change, one mutation, we’ll be able to track it down,” Mr Miller told AAP. 

“Not to limit ourselves to a limited panel of genes or limited conditions like all the other tests but looking for the first time through the entire genome.”

There are 54 different medical conditions treatable in utero and 267 conditions that should be treated within the first week of life, according to Identifai.

“Most of the time, what is happening in a real-life scenario, the indication comes in too late and basically clinicians can do nothing,” Mr Miller said.

Identifai cites the example of Pompe disease, a rare genetic condition where a complex sugar called glycogen builds up in the body, causing potentially irreversible muscle and organ damage.

Detection through a comprehensive gene scan would allow early treatment before symptoms even emerge.

The Windrose process is undergoing a 600-patient clinical validation trial in the United States expected to run until late 2027.

Identifai decided to list on the ASX partly because of the success of other Israeli companies and because of investor enthusiasm in Australia for biotechnology stocks, Mr Miller said.

Identifai will join the likes of medical diagnostic companies BlinkLab, Artrya and 4DMedical on the local bourse.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have drunk tea at the White House and visited the National Archives, ‌capping a three-day summit that showcased personal diplomacy rather than big breakthroughs in economic relations.

The two leaders praised each other in remarks while they had tea in the White House Red Room.

Trump said the summit between the leaders of the two countries with the world’s largest ‌economies had produced great strides and that “I think our farmers are going to be happy” but did not provide details.

“America is very happy about this visit and I’m sure China is very happy also,” he said.

Xi said the US-China relationship had developed ‌into a constructive one of “strategic stability on the basis of respect, fairness and reciprocity”.

Xi also said he and Trump would have two more opportunities to meet this year, the APEC summit in China and a G20 summit in Miami.

“I do welcome you, Mr President and the First Lady to visit China,” he said.

Trump later said he had accepted Xi’s invitation.

“We will be meeting again in November, in China, and then at the G20 in December, in Miami, Florida. Much has been, and will be, accomplished,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

The lavish state summit, with flyovers, tours and a glittering state dinner, has been heavy on symbolism but light on substance.

Still, Trump highlighted progress under a bilateral trade mechanism, citing what he described as increased market access for US farmers and ranchers, while both leaders identified artificial intelligence as an area for co-operation.

Details of the limited agreements the two sides struck regarding their tense trade relationship would be released on Monday, US Trade ‌Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC ‌on Friday.

“We’re in a managed trade situation … ⁠We’ve had progress, and we will release on Monday, I think, a lot more details about what we’ve accomplished over the past few weeks in ​negotiating with the Chinese,” he said.

The US has agreed with China on exempting some key goods from arguments over trade, Greer said, including exports to China of agricultural products and medical devices and imports of consumer and non-sensitive goods.

The summit concluded at the National Archives, where Trump and Xi appeared to review the US declaration of independence and the constitution and the bill of rights.

They would also see “artefacts testifying to the long and cherished relationship” between China and the US and their “cultural exchanges,” Trump said in remarks welcoming Xi on Thursday.

“Just as our ancestors reached across the ocean centuries ago to trade, to learn and to build a better world, our two countries do really the same thing, and we’re very proud of it and ⁠the relationship,” Trump said.

China has not commented on the visit to the archives but analysts say Xi may be keen to ‌see records relating to the ​US switch of recognition to communist China from Taiwan in 1979.

Responding to a question, Trump said he and Xi had discussed Iran and said “I think we’re going to do great” without elaborating. 

China has denied US allegations of helping ​Iran’s leaders in the ‌conflict.

with DPA

For almost 40 years, Paul Kahlert has watched new generations of truck drivers learn from their parents about how to move produce and crucial supplies across the country. 

They have been lifelines for small towns, which often rely on road trains for their food, clothes and school supplies. 

Now, Mr Kahlert is seeing multi-generation businesses put their trucks up for auction. 

“Second and third generations can’t afford to look up the hill and see that their parents are struggling,” said the chief executive of All Purpose Transport, which employs more than 400 people.

Mr Kahlert is one of the growing number in the transport industry urging the federal government to reintroduce a fuel excise cut. 

Diesel cost an average of $2.86 cents a litre in capital cities on Wednesday, up 18.9 cents from the week prior, ACCC data showed – and it’s expected to worsen. 

“From now until Christmas is the peak period for the transport industry,” Mr Kahlert said, warning demand would put more pressure on prices. 

At the same time, oil will likely become more expensive for the next six months during the European winter, when demand for heating homes and businesses surges. 

The rising costs are contributing to an almost universal expectation the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates on Tuesday to the highest level in 15 years.

The federal government has essentially ruled out cutting the fuel tax again, which gave motorists  32 cents a litre relief at the start of the US-Iran war.

The government was “very clear” the excise cut was temporary, Energy Minister Chris Bowen said.

“We did extend it a bit so it gradually returned to more normal levels, but we are not going to respond to every daily movement on the world oil price,” Mr  Bowen told ABC in mid-September.

Focus had shifted to more permanent cost of living help through the tax system, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said on Monday. 

Economists have warned against reinstating the tax break, because it would ultimately worsen inflation. 

But Mr Kahlert disagreed, instead favouring a coalition plan for a new cut, as he pointed to more immediate impacts. 

“The government can argue that they are getting more revenue and more tax, and therefore their returns are better, but from an operator’s perspective, they are having to find that cash in their business,” he said.

He joined colleagues from Queensland and Australian trucking groups to call for immediate relief. 

“Members are doing everything they can to keep freight moving, but they cannot keep financing sharp fuel increases on behalf of the rest of the supply chain,” Queensland Trucking Association chief executive Gary Mahon said. 

The federal government was contacted for comment on Friday.

Oasis fans have begun to receive the first ticket codes for the band’s 2027 tour.

As part of Oasis Live 27, the group will play 42 shows in Scotland, England, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Italy, the United States and Ireland.

Fans were asked to pre-register by 4pm UK time on Thursday September 17.

They will be sent a unique, non-transferable code to access an allocated on-sale window.

In the UK, ticket sales will take place on September 25, 26 and 27, with three selling windows each day.

Fans will be informed directly which window they can access, and at what time.

The band have told fans to be wary of scammers attempting to impersonate Oasis or their ticket partners.

“Please do not accept a code that is not sent by oasis@openstageit.com,” they said in a statement.

Demand for the tour has been so great that Oasis added four extra dates, including two at Knebworth, England, on September 25 and 26, where they famously played two concerts in August 1996 to an audience of more than 100,000 fans each night.

The band reunited last year for their Live 25 tour, which sold out within minutes of tickets going on sale, and was estimated by Forbes to have generated more than 293 million pounds ($A553 million) in revenue.

The reunion came after a long-standing feud between Noel Gallagher and brother Liam when the band split in 2009 – reportedly prompted by a backstage brawl at the Rock en Seine festival in France.