Shares in Asia firmed on Thursday after US President Donald Trump flagged a first trade deal in his global tariff war, while the dollar tried to hold overnight gains as markets pushed out the chance of near-term rate cuts.

S&P 500 futures erased earlier losses to be up 0.5 per cent while Nasdaq futures rose 0.7 per cent. The pan-European STOXX 600 index climbed 0.7 per cent and FTSE futures gained 0.5 per cent.

Trump said late on Wednesday he would announce details about a major trade deal with an unspecified country at a press conference later in the day. The New York Times reported that the deal was with Britain.

The president’s comments came as investors anxiously await planned trade talks between Washington and Beijing on Saturday, which could mark the first step in resolving a potentially damaging trade war between the world’s top two economies.

Markets are also keeping their eyes peeled on the Bank of England’s policy meeting later in the day where expectations are for a quarter-point rate cut. Additionally, central banks in Sweden and Norway are due to deliver their latest policy decisions, although no moves are expected.

Overnight, in a widely expected decision, the Federal Reserve left policy rate in the 4.25 per cent-4.5 per cent range, but said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen. Chair Jerome Powell said it isn’t clear if the economy will continue its steady pace of growth, or wilt under mounting uncertainty and a possible coming spike in inflation.

Markets scaled back the chance of a June rate cut to just 20 per cent, from 30 per cent a day earlier, while a move in July is now priced at 70 per cent, compared with a near-certainty just a week ago.

“This suggests little inclination to move until they are confident of the direction the data is heading, meaning rate cuts could be delayed, but risk being sharper when they come,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

Such a scenario likely weighed on the longer-dated Treasury yields, with the benchmark ten-year yields down 7 basis points overnight at 4.275 per cent. Two-year yields held steady at 3.785 per cent.

The hawkish Fed also gave the dollar a much needed bounce, although some selling pressure was again evident in morning trade in Asia. The dollar index slipped 0.1 per cent to 99.803, having rebounded 0.3 per cent overnight against its major peers.

On Thursday, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat while Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.2 per cent.

Both Chinese blue chips and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4 per cent, building on the gains from Wednesday when Beijing announced a rate cut and more cash for the banking system.

Overnight on Wall Street, stocks rose on reports that the Trump administration was planning to rescind and modify a Biden-era rule that curbed the export of sophisticated artificial-intelligence chips. Nvidia shares jumped 3.0 per cent.

On Wednesday, Trump suggested that Beijing initiated upcoming senior-level trade talks and said he was not willing to cut US tariffs on Chinese goods to get Beijing to the negotiating table.

China has said earlier that it was the US side that had signalled a desire to hold talks.

While Trump’s comments underlined the recent mixed signals from Washington on de-escalating the Sino-US trade war, analysts say the Geneva meeting could help ease tensions.

“The rest of the week will likely see investors cautiously, if not slightly auspiciously, awaiting trade talks between the US and China,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com.

In commodities markets, oil prices bounced after falling more than $US1 ($A1.60) on Wednesday. US crude futures rose 0.5 per cent to $US58.34 ($A90.77) a barrel while Brent was at $US61.34 ($A95.43) per barrel, up 0.4 per cent on the day.

In precious metals, gold prices rallied 0.7 per cent to $US3,390 ($A5,274) an ounce amid the uncertainties about Fed policy outlook, but still short of its record high of $US3,500 ($A5,445).

Australia’s fourth-largest bank says it’s well placed to navigate ongoing volatility in the global market and economy after boosting its earnings by 12 per cent.

ANZ posted a rise in first-half cash profit to $3.6 billion on the back of a five per cent jump in revenue to almost $11 billion, from the previous corresponding period.

Outgoing chief executive Shayne Elliott played up the result, which in percentage terms has topped its rivals Westpac and National Australia Bank.

“As I hand over to our incoming CEO Nuno Matos, the bank is well placed for the future,” he said on Thursday.

“Our strong balance sheet, along with our diversified portfolio, leaves the bank well placed to navigate ongoing volatility.”

ANZ’s results for the first time included the earnings of Suncorp Bank, which it bought in July last year.

ANZ said it now has more than one million customers, with deposits of more than $20 billion.

But Mr Elliott stressed the “future of global conditions is uncertain and there will continue to be periods of increased volatility”.

His warning mimicked those made by the chief executives of Westpac and NAB earlier this week.

The uncertainty is being driven by the United States, after President Donald Trump imposed large tariffs on goods imports from countries around the world, including Australia, sparking threats of retaliation.

The unpredictable way the United States is managing its punitive tariffs regime has sparked warnings by major American investment banks about a US and subsequent global recession.

On Monday, Westpac posted a one per cent fall in first-half earnings to $3.3 billion. National Australia Bank delivered interim earnings of $3.6 billion, up one per cent, on Wednesday.

ANZ will pay its investors a first-half dividend of 83 cents per share, against 76 cents for Westpac and 85 cents for NAB.

As the prime minister eyes his new cabinet, the Labor leader faces early headwinds including US tariffs and a potentially troublesome Greens senate cross bench.

Anthony Albanese and his senior ministers have already sent a shot across the minor party’s bow, warning them to be co-operative after a first term marred by blocked legislation and drawn-out negotiations.

The Greens have retained their balance of power status in the upper house, but lost leader Adam Bandt and three of four lower house seats, amid a Labor resurgence in the federal election on Saturday.

Outgoing Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather hit back at the prime minister for challenging him on live television, after he described parliament as a toxic place.

The firebrand MP who shot to prominence as the party’s housing spokesman and went head-to-head with Mr Albanese, lost his seat of Griffith in Brisbane to Labor after one term.

Mr Albanese said Mr Chandler-Mather needed to reflect on why he wasn’t in parliament and how he conducted himself when he was, and called out the Greens MP’s attacks on his character.

Mr Chandler-Mather responded by saying it was “how the political class treats people who fight for renters and real change”.

“Compare this to his kind words for Dutton,” he wrote on social media platform X.

Trade Minister Don Farrell pointed to what he said was a tendency to abrasive politics as the reason for the Greens’ poor showing in the lower house.

“The reason that they’ve done so badly in this election is because their supporters wanted them to support the government’s progressive policies, and they were doing exactly the opposite,” he told Nine’s Today Show on Thursday.

However, Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi defended the party, saying Labor’s vote spiked because “a lot of progressive Australians were deeply anxious about a Dutton government”.

“But also, those same voters clearly wanted us to hold a potential Labor government to account, which is why we also achieved record high Senate votes,” she told ABC Radio.

The Greens’ balance of power position in the Senate means the government will need them to pass legislation opposed by the coalition.

The Greens are sweating on the Brisbane-based seat of Ryan, which is amongst 11 seats overall that remain too close to call after the election.

Labor has won at least 89 seats while the coalition sits on a diminished 40 seats in the 150-seat house, after the landslide re-election victory under Mr Albanese.

The Labor caucus will meet in Canberra on Friday ahead of the likely unveiling of a new-look cabinet on Monday.

Senator Farrell, a right faction powerbroker, said he would leave Mr Albanese to determine his cabinet as the Labor factions tussle for ministry representations. 

Spots are decided on a proportional basis.

The Victorian right faction is calling for an extra post at the expense of their NSW counterparts, who are overrepresented after a swathe of new MPs changed the left and right faction balance.

The ministry is likely to be sworn in on Tuesday with Mr Albanese planning to travel to Indonesia the following day to meet President Prabowo Subianto.

Also on Mr Albanese’s early-term agenda are the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on imported goods, steel and aluminium from Australia.

Mr Trump has also flagged a 100 per cent tariff on films made outside the US, which has alarmed the Australian arts community.

Speaking in Los Angeles, Australia’s ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd said “I don’t think we want to see a tax on Bluey”, the popular children’s show on the ABC.

Recipe book writer Nagi Maehashi has beaten cupcake queen Brooke Bellamy at the publishing industry’s annual awards, after Maehashi and other authors accused Bellamy of plagiarism.

Maehashi won the illustrated book of the year prize a second time at the Australian Book Industry Awards in Melbourne on Wednesday for her most recent book RecipeTin Eats: Tonight.

In April the prize-winning author accused Bellamy, who runs the popular Brooki Bakehouse in Brisbane, of copying her caramel slice and baklava recipes in her bestselling book, Bake with Brooki.

Another author, US-based Sally McKenney from the blog Sally’s Baking Addiction, has alleged Bellamy copied her Best Vanilla Cake recipe.

Bellamy denies the allegations, which she has described online as “deeply distressing”. She did not attend the awards night and she’s understood to be attending a pop-up bakery venture in the United Arab Emirates.

The Brisbane baker and online influencer has previously said she offered to remove the recipes that are the subject of Maehashi’s allegations from any reprints “to prevent further aggravation”.

Maehashi beat five finalists including Bellamy to take out the prestigious industry prize, with her second cookbook Tonight selling more than 78,000 copies in its first week on shelves, breaking Australian records for first week non-fiction title sales.

Bake with Brooki was published in October by Penguin Random House Australia, which was awarded a gong for publisher of the year and has been contacted for comment.

The awards are not only about authors but the whole publishing industry, according to Australian Publishers Association chief executive Patrizia Di Biase-Dyson.

“The industry judges cast their eagle eyes over the whole process of bringing books to consumers – from editing the manuscript through to the sales, marketing and publicity,” she said.

Cookbook allegations aside, music legend John Farnham and filmmaker Poppy Stockell were the big winners at the 25th annual awards, winning the overall book of the year Award, audiobook of the year and biography of the year for The Voice Inside.

Journalist Joe Aston’s Qantas exposé The Chairman’s Lounge won general non-fiction book of the year, while 2024 co-Australian of the Year Richard Scolyer won social impact book of the year for Brainstorm, about his fight against brain cancer.

ABIA WINNERS 2025:

* Audiobook of the Year: The Voice Inside, John Farnham with Poppy Stockell

* Biography Book of the Year: The Voice Inside, John Farnham with Poppy Stockell

* The John Marsden Book of the Year for Older Children: My Family and Other Suspects, Kate Emery

* Book of the Year for Younger Children: Wurrtoo, Tylissa Elisara, illustrated by Dylan Finney 

* Children’s Picture Book of the Year: The Truck Cat, Deborah Frenkel, illustrated by Danny Snell 

* General Fiction Book of the Year: What Happened to Nina?, Dervla McTiernan

* General Non-fiction Book of the Year: The Chairman’s Lounge, Joe Aston 

* Illustrated Book of the Year: RecipeTin Eats: Tonight, Nagi Maehashi 

* Literary Fiction Book of the Year: Dusk, Robbie Arnott 

* Social Impact Book of the Year: Brainstorm, Richard Scolyer with Garry Maddox

* The Matt Richell Award for New Writer of the Year: We Are the Stars, Gina Chick 

* Publisher of the Year: Penguin Random House Australia

Greens leader Adam Bandt has lost his seat after holding it for almost 15 years, becoming the second federal party leader to be ousted.

The ABC has called the seat of Melbourne for Labor candidate Sarah Witty, after a race that went down to the wire.

Mr Bandt was first elected to the parliament in 2010, and has led the party since 2020.

The Greens were all but wiped out in the lower house, also losing two seats in Brisbane.

Elizabeth Watson-Brown is expected to retain the Queensland seat of Ryan to be the sole Greens MP in the House of Representatives.

The party’s primary vote largely held up and it will retain the balance of power in the Senate.

About a dozen seats remain undecided with Labor leading in six, the Liberals in four and independents in two.

Mr Bandt is the second federal leader to lose his seat after Liberal leader Peter Dutton was voted out in Dickson.

Mr Dutton was seen in public for the first time since losing his seat in parliament and the federal election.

The opposition leader returned to Canberra on Wednesday afternoon.

Wearing a dark blue suit, an opened-collared shirt and his signature specs, he offered a few words to waiting journalists.

When asked who should replace him, Mr Dutton suggested it was best for former leaders to “maintain a graceful silence”.

As to his next steps, he said he was looking forward to spending more time with friends and family.

As the outgoing member for Dickson ran the media gauntlet, Labor backroom powerbrokers continued to divide the spoils of victory.

Not everyone wins a prize following Labor’s landslide win, with one senior minister expected to lose their position as cabinet spots are shared around.

Powerbrokers are meeting to determine the makeup of the new cabinet and ministry, with spots allocated according to a delicate balance between left and right factions as well as state representation.

Labor’s caucus will meet in Canberra on Friday with ultimate authority resting with Anthony Albanese after his thumping election win, extending his majority by at least nine seats.

Its left faction, from which the prime minister hails, is generally considered the more socially progressive and economically liberal wing.

Following the election, it outnumbers the more conservative right faction in caucus.

A senior minister could be on the chopping block as the NSW right is over-represented in cabinet and their Victorian counterparts are screaming for another spot.

There are five members of the NSW Right in federal cabinet: Tony Burke (home affairs), Chris Bowen (climate change and energy), Jason Clare (education), Ed Husic (industry and science), and Michelle Rowland (communications).

Geographic spread and gender balance will be considered as part of the deliberations.

Labor’s senior leadership team is expected to remain in their portfolios.

The depth of Labor’s cabinet contenders contrasts a Liberal leadership dearth as the party soul searches after Peter Dutton became the first opposition leader to lose his seat.

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor and Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley have been hitting the phones to garner support, with immigration spokesman Dan Tehan likely to run as deputy to one of the two.

Peter Dutton has been seen in public for the first time since losing his seat in parliament and the federal election.

The opposition leader returned to Canberra on Wednesday afternoon.

Wearing a dark blue suit, an opened-collared shirt and his signature specs, he offered a few words to waiting journalists.

When asked who should replace him, Mr Dutton suggested it was best for former leaders to “maintain a graceful silence”.

As to his next steps, he said he was looking forward to spending more time with friends and family.

As the outgoing member for Dickson ran the media gauntlet, Labor backroom powerbrokers continued to divide the spoils of victory.

Not everyone wins a prize following Labor’s landslide win, with one senior minister expected to lose their position as cabinet spots are shared around.

Powerbrokers are meeting to determine the makeup of the new cabinet and ministry, with spots allocated according to a delicate balance between left and right factions as well as state representation.

Labor’s caucus will meet in Canberra on Friday with ultimate authority resting with Anthony Albanese after his thumping election win, extending his majority by at least nine seats.

Its left faction, from which the prime minister hails, is generally considered the more socially progressive and economically liberal wing. 

Following the election, it outnumbers the more conservative right faction in caucus.

A senior minister could be on the chopping block as the NSW right is over-represented in cabinet and their Victorian counterparts are screaming for another spot.

There are five members of the NSW Right in federal cabinet: Tony Burke (home affairs), Chris Bowen (climate change and energy), Jason Clare (education), Ed Husic (industry and science), and Michelle Rowland (communications).

Geographic spread and gender balance will be considered as part of the deliberations.

Labor’s senior leadership team is expected to remain in their portfolios.

The depth of Labor’s cabinet contenders contrasts a Liberal leadership dearth as the party soul searches after Peter Dutton became the first opposition leader to lose his seat.

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor and Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley have been hitting the phones to garner support, with immigration spokesman Dan Tehan likely to run as deputy to one of the two.

There is some anger directed at Mr Taylor for a failure to come up with economic policy ahead of the election, which MPs believe cost them votes.

There is also a belief he was too focused on factional politics in NSW rather than focusing on his job.

The leadership race has started getting dirty, with backgrounding against Ms Ley accusing her of undermining Mr Dutton and failing to make an impact as deputy.

A coalition source described leadership talent as being “as shallow as a kiddie pool” with it being widely accepted the new Liberal leader would lose the next election starting so far behind the eight ball.

It is looking increasingly likely Mr Dutton won’t be the only party leader scalped in the landslide, with Labor edging ahead in Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne. 

The Greens leader narrowly trails Labor candidate Sarah Witty in the count with just over two-thirds of ballots counted.

The minor party was all but wiped out in the lower house, losing two seats in Brisbane and Mr Bandt’s seat on a knife edge favouring Labor.

It is only ahead in Ryan, which could leave Elizabeth Watson-Brown as the sole Greens member in the lower house – down from four – despite the party’s primary vote largely holding up. 

It will retain the balance of power in the Senate.

About a dozen seats remain with Labor leading in six, the Liberals in four, independents in two and the Greens in one.

Progress on one of Australia’s largest transport projects continues to crawl along, with excavation complete on a key CBD station.

Sydney’s Metro West project – priced at an eye-watering $25 billion – will connect Parramatta to the city centre but has been plagued by construction delays and cost blowouts.

The NSW government celebrated a rare win on Wednesday, with excavation on the Hunter St metro station, in the city’s centre, complete.

Enough rock to fill 290 Olympic swimming pools has been removed at the station site to open up a cavern 20 metres deep and 180 metres long.

Hunter Street will be the final and busiest stop on the 24km line when it finally opens in 2032, with more than 10,000 people forecast to move through each hour.

A $21 billion metro system connecting Chatswood in the city’s north to Sydenham in the inner west via tunnels under Sydney Harbour opened in August.

The opening of another section of the metro, connecting Sydenham with Bankstown in Sydney’s southwest, has been delayed until 2026.

The government blamed the impact of industrial disputes for the delay.

The entire Sydney Metro project includes four metro lines, 46 stations and 113km of new rail.

“The excavation of Hunter Street metro station is a feat of engineering when you consider the dig came mere metres away from other underground infrastructure, including the other metro line,” Transport Minister John Graham said. 

“This station is going to be such an important gateway to Sydney’s west, getting people to Parramatta in about 20 minutes, and linking precincts like Sydney Olympic Park, Burwood, the Bays and the health district of Westmead.”

Initially due to open in 2028, then later pushed back to 2030, the project is now expected to be completed by 2032. 

Stations on the 24km metro line are confirmed at Westmead, Parramatta, Sydney Olympic Park, North Strathfield, Burwood North, Five Dock, The Bays precinct, Pyrmont and Hunter St in the city centre.

The metro west line was initially budgeted by the former coalition government at $13 billion but is now expected to cost taxpayers $25.32 billion.

The cost-of-living crunch won’t deter Australians from spoiling mum as they’re set to splurge this Mother’s Day.

Flowers, food, clothing, personal beauty products, and jewellery are expected to top the list of gifts this year, as millions gear up for a nationwide spending spree to reach up to $1 billion.

While participation has declined, average spending has increased to $141 up from $102 last year, according to a survey by the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan.

Australian Retailers Association chief industry affairs officer Fleur Brown said there had been a significant shift in spending patterns.

“The past few years of high interest rates and sky-high business costs have hit discretionary retailers hardest, and it’s special spending events like Mother’s Day that help keep the sector resilient,” she said. 

Participation rates have dropped by 65 per cent for people under 35, while it has doubled for seniors.

The day continues to be one of the biggest on the retail calendar with every state experiencing a 20 per cent boost over the weekend last year.

Coupled with a 4.1-point increase in consumer confidence – seven points higher than the same point in 2024 – people are ready to spend up on gifts and experiences.

ANZ forecasts a 2.5 per cent increase in spending in 2025.

“Over the past few years, we’ve seen a steady rise in spending during the Mother’s Day weekend,” ANZ everyday banking managing director Yiken Yang said.

Victorians are expected to lead the way, spending $158 million, followed by NSW with $147 million.

Despite their continued popularity, Mr Yang anticipates reduced spending in flower shops and department stores, jewellery and clothing stores, as people choose more experience-type gifts.

Florists saw a 5.22 per cent drop in spending in 2024, compared to a year earlier, although they recouped an additional $3.1 million compared to a normal weekend, he said.

But wholesale flower traders at the National Flower Centre in Epping, north of Melbourne, are seeing a bumper lead up to one of the industry’s busiest days, anticipating sales of more than three million chrysanthemums, roses and tulips this year.

Victoria Whitelaw Beautiful Flowers expects to sell more than 20,000 stems over the two weeks leading up to Mother’s Day, with bouquets and mixes of blooms in high demand.

Men continue to lead in total spend, with an average of $131.

Generation X splurged the most, spending $189 million, followed by millennials spending $184 million. Generation Z spent the least, but saw the biggest growth.

Saturdays experience an uptick in spending as final preparations and last-minute gift buying occur before Mother’s Day on Sunday.

Australia’s largest business bank has raised the alarm about the impact of global trade tensions on the outlook for the nation, after reporting a slight rise in half-year earnings.

National Australia Bank posted cash earnings of $3.6 billion for the half-year ended March, up one per cent from the same period in 2024.

“We are optimistic about the underlying growth outlook for the Australian and New Zealand economies,” CEO Andrew Irvine said on Wednesday.

“However, escalating global trade tensions are a key source of uncertainty.”

The trade issue is being driven by the United States, after President Donald Trump imposed large tariffs on goods imports from countries around the world, including Australia, sparking threats of retaliation.

Mr Irvine said NAB, which is one of Australia’s big four banks, was “managing our business well” despite continuing challenging market operations.

“We have maintained strong balance sheet settings,” he said.

“Our bank is in good shape.”

NAB declared an interim dividend of 85 cents per share, up one cent on last year’s payout.

The bank’s result was slightly better than Westpac’s, which on Monday, posted first-half earnings of $3.3 billion, down one per cent, and an interim dividend of 76 cents.

Anthony Albanese has placed a premium on unity as he prepares to lock down his new cabinet, as the losing coalition parties continue their bloodletting.

The Labor caucus will meet in Canberra on Friday as factional heavyweights consider their cabinet picks, with the final makeup to reflect a delicate balance between the left and right groupings.

The current top-line leadership members are expected to remain in their portfolios.

“Our processes are under way, so we have a lot of meetings,” Finance Minister Katy Gallagher told ABC TV.

“The fortunate thing for us is we’ve got a huge amount of talent on our frontbench and we’ve got a lot of talented people coming up through our ranks.”

But there’s a storm brewing within the coalition, after outspoken Nationals senator Matt Canavan suggested his party should run in more seats after outperforming the Liberals in Saturday’s federal election.

“Why don’t we run in outer suburban, peri-urban sort of areas where we look after people who are on the frontiers, who feel ignored by the major cities?” he told Nine’s Today show on Wednesday.

“We run very good local campaigns. We champion local issues and we don’t care if people criticise us or think we’re hicks and terrible, we just fight for people.

“If that leads to us breaking up, great, fine. But let’s do what’s best for the country.”

Later, Senator Canavan said the coalition was “a business relationship, not a marriage” before noting a Liberal-Nationals divorce wasn’t the ultimate goal.

“I don’t want that to happen … the goal is to develop, deliver a choice and a fight for the Australian people, so I’d let the Liberal Party join us on that fight,” he told Sky News.

Former Nationals leader Michael McCormack has backed the coalition arrangement with the Liberals, saying the parties were much stronger together. 

Meanwhile, the Liberal party is calling for a nuclear policy rethink, as the coalition considers the way forward after losing more than a dozen seats at the election, taking it to its worst result in decades.

“This is a policy that went to an election, the election result was devastating,” Liberal senator Maria Kovacic told ABC radio. 

“The message from the community is very, very clear and that’s why I believe that this nuclear policy has to go.”

Australians don’t view nuclear power stations as a serious climate policy because the transition to net-zero emissions needed to be done expeditiously, given nuclear couldn’t be part of the energy mix for decades, she said.

Labor minister Murray Watt noted that Nationals had led the energy policy debate on nuclear power within the coalition, saying leader David Littleproud was “crowing about how he’d managed to convince the Liberals to take that policy on”.

“Whoever ends up as the Liberal Party leader after this needs to make a decision about whether they’re going to continue being dictated to by the National Party, who only represent a very small number of seats around the country,” he said.

“Or whether they’re going to take back control of the coalition and have it actually led by the Liberal Party so they can win back some of those seats in the cities.”

The Liberals also had a problem encouraging female candidates and appealing to women voters, which would intensify if not addressed, University of Sydney political scientist Peter Chen said.

The ABC forecasts women will hold at least 63 seats in the new parliament – including 46 with Labor and four with the Liberals.

“Without quotas, they’re not going to get anywhere near gender parity,” he told AAP.

“They’re moving themselves into a permanent opposition.”

Retired senator Linda Reynolds is amongst the senior Liberals urging the party to learn from previous reviews, after a post mortem of the 2022 election defeat found the party was failing to adequately represent the values and priorities of women.