More heatwave-related deaths, longer droughts in some areas and more frequent flooding are being forecast in a landmark government report outlining the risks rising global temperatures pose to Australia.

The National Climate Risk Assessment warns no community will be spared from the impacts of climate change, suggesting the effects will span across areas as diverse as agriculture, health and national security.

“Future changes in Australia’s climate will not occur gradually or smoothly,” the report’s overview warns.

The first-of-its-kind document modelled how global warming will impact individual communities, the nation’s economy and the environment under three different scenarios of warming.

Experts believe the Australian continent is already 1.5C hotter than it was before the industrial revolution.

If global temperatures increase by an average of 3C compared to pre-industrial levels, the report predicts a dramatic spike in the number of Australians who will die during heatwaves.

Under that scenario, it warns the number of heatwave-related deaths could skyrocket by more than 400 per cent in Sydney and more than 250 per cent in Melbourne.

Floods are also expected to become more frequent as sea levels rise.

Tropical cyclones are forecast to hit Australia less often, but there is a possibility they will become more severe and shift slightly farther south.

Some of the national forecasts are also highly uncertain. Under 3C of warming, the amount of time spent in drought, for example, is given a range spanning from a 15 per cent reduction to an 89 per cent increase. Forecasts at a local level are more precise.

The government is also releasing the National Adaptation Plan, a separate report outlining how Australia can mitigate some of the risks posed by global warming.

But it warns some risks, like sea level rises, are unavoidable and Australians will have to learn to live with the change.

The United States and Britain will announce agreements on technology and civil nuclear energy during US President Donald Trump’s unprecedented second state visit this week, as the UK hopes to finalise steel tariffs under a much-vaunted trade deal.

Trump and his wife, Melania, will be treated to a display of British royal pageantry during their visit on Wednesday, including a carriage tour, a state banquet, a flypast by military aircraft and a gun salute.

The British government hopes the soft power of the royals will appeal to Trump as it seeks tighter defence, security and energy ties with Washington, having already secured a favourable tariff deal.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host Trump at his Chequers country residence on Thursday to discuss working more closely together, on issues like Ukraine, and with the aim of finalising promised lower tariffs for steel and aluminium.

A spokesperson for Starmer said the leaders would sign “a world-leading tech partnership” and “a major civil nuclear deal” during the trip.

“The UK-US relationship is the strongest in the world,” Starmer’s spokesperson told reporters. 

“This week we are delivering a step change in that relationship.”

The British leader, a technocrat and a self-proclaimed socialist, and Trump, a proudly unpredictable politician who has pushed the Republican Party further to the right, have overcome their differences to develop a good working relationship.

Starmer was the first world leader to agree an economic deal with Trump on reducing his global tariffs.

Under that agreement, the United States said it planned to reduce tariffs on imports of cars and aluminium and steel. While details on car tariffs were agreed in June, the deal for steel and aluminium is yet to be finalised.

“When it comes to steel, we will make sure that we have an announcement as soon as possible,” British business minister Peter Kyle told the BBC on Sunday.

Before Trump’s arrival, Britain on Saturday announced over 1.25 billion pounds ($A2.55 billion) of US investment from PayPal, Bank of America and others, while Nvidia and OpenAI are expected to announce investment deals as part of the technology agreement, according to sources, who asked not to be named.

The talks will be complicated by Starmer’s decision last week to fire Peter Mandelson, his ambassador to the United States, over his ties with the late convicted US sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The sacking is deeply embarrassing for Starmer, who appointed him to Britain’s most desirable diplomatic post less than a year ago.

During this week’s visit, Starmer’s spokesperson said there would also be announcements on deepening cultural ties, including promoting basketball in Britain and developing partnerships between heritage and art institutions.

A major Australian bank will be cough up $240 million in fines after engaging in “widespread misconduct” affecting almost 65,000 customers.

ANZ admits failing to respond to hundreds of notices about customer hardship, making false and misleading statements about its savings interest rates and failing to pay that amount to customers.

The financial services watchdog also said the Big Four bank acted “unconscionably” while managing a $14 billion bond deal in services with the federal government as it incorrectly reported bond trading data and overstated volumes by tens of billions of dollars for years.

Even the dead were not spared, with ANZ failing to refund fees to thousands of dead customers and not responded to deceased estates inquiries from loved ones within the required time frame.

“Time and time again ANZ betrayed the trust of Australians,” ASIC Chair Joe Longo said.

“Banks must have the trust of customers and government. 

“This outcome shows an unacceptable disregard for that trust that is critical to the banking system.”

The penalties are the largest announced by ASIC against one entity, according to Mr Longo.

ANZ has admitted to the allegations and its chief executive officer Nuno Matos says he is committed to change.

“The failings outlined are simply not good enough and they reinforce the case for change,” he said.

Each matter will be separately considered and determined by the Federal Court.

The penalties will put more pressure on the bank’s CEO, who came under fire on Tuesday after announcing ANZ would lay off 3500 staff and 1000 contractors by September 2026.

New Zealand might just hold the key to solving Australia’s housing supply mess.

Zoning reforms across the ditch provide a template to boost dismal construction productivity and help the industry reach its supply targets,  a research paper by economic think tank e61 Institute has found.

Labour productivity in the construction sector – essentially how many homes are built per hour worked – has declined since 2000 in Australia, adding to the time and cost it takes the industry to provide supply.

New Zealand is unique among Anglosphere nations in having experienced substantial growth in construction productivity since the turn of the millennium.

Productivity growth surged in Auckland and Upper Hutt, near Wellington, immediately after they were ‘upzoned’ in the mid-2010s, relative to the rest of the country, report author Matthew Maltman said.

Governments have tried a variety of things, including changes to regulation and modular construction, to get productivity moving in Australia in recent decades, to no avail, he said.

“It’s still up for debate how large (the productivity gains from zoning reform) could be, but this seems to be something that there is evidence shifted the dial,” Mr Maltman told AAP. 

“So given that’s true, it’s something that’s worth thinking about, given the benefits associated with affordability and allowing people to live in  higher-amenity locations that comes with these types of reforms.”

His research found Auckland’s zoning reforms improved construction productivity by approximately eight per cent, but he said it was hard to quantify the extent of the boost it would deliver in Australia.

So how does zoning reform result in greater productivity?

One reason is that allowing more medium-density housing incentivises more firms to enter the market, boosting competition, while smaller employers are encouraged to hire more staff, Mr Maltman said.

The Productivity Commission has found Australia’s construction sector is dominated by small-scale firms and subcontracting arrangements, with the average company employing fewer than two people.

That results in builders missing out on the benefits of economies of scale.

Mr Maltman found medium-density housing itself was more efficient to build than the alternative of single-family homes on the urban fringe.

The NSW and Victorian governments have substantial zoning reforms under way that will increase height limits for developments across Sydney and Melbourne, particularly around public transport hubs.

Economists including the Grattan Institute’s Brendan Coates and Peter Tulip of the Centre for Independent Studies say even without the increased productivity benefits, these measures will make a significant difference to supply and affordability.

In a panel discussion with Dr Tulip and New Zealand Housing Minister Chris Bishop, NSW Premier Chris Minns said his government’s housing reforms had taken “direct inspiration” from Auckland’s zoning changes.

Australia is falling short of the government’s target of 1.2 million new homes in the five years to mid-2029, but there are signs efforts at the state and federal levels are starting to boost the sector’s capacity.

Dwelling starts are set to rise a cumulative 30 per cent to 239,800 – just shy of the annual run rate required to meet the target – in the four years to 2028/29, Oxford Economics Australia forecasts.

Student accommodation, build-to-rent, retirement, and land lease were beginning to fire, while social and affordable housing was receiving a boost from the National Housing Accord, said Maree Kilroy, senior economist in construction and property forecasting. 

“Nonetheless, typical mass market house and land packages and infill apartment development is where most of the heavy lifting will need to be done to meet housing targets,” she said.

Australia and its nearest neighbour are set to sign a significant defence treaty as seasoned observers wait to discover whether it will deliver a “holy grail”.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel to Port Moresby on Monday to attend Papua New Guinea’s Golden Jubilee celebrations and finalise a defence agreement with counterpart James Marape.

The deal will enable PNG nationals to serve in Australia’s defence force with the same pay as other members and start a pathway to citizenship.

Details are yet to be revealed, including whether both countries would be compelled to consult one another if they faced a security threat, similar to NATO’s Article Four clause.

Mr Albanese emphasised the two nations were expanding their partnership as equals and had the same vision for a stable and prosperous Pacific.

“Our relationship now is a relationship about security,” he told reporters ahead of the trip.

“It’s an economic relationship, it’s about people-to-people relations.”

The treaty speaks to a shared ambition between the two nations, Defence Minister Richard Marles said.

“What we’ll be saying in the next few days is a genuinely historic agreement between our two countries,” he said.

It’s PNG’s first defence agreement with another nation and deeply significant for the country, Lowy Institute research fellow Oliver Nobetau said.

The world was waiting to learn if it included an exclusivity clause, which meant PNG could not pursue similar deals with other countries, such as China, he said.

“We can define that as a sort of the holy grail of security partnerships in the Pacific and if you can get that, it can signal a return to greater regional stability,” Mr Nobetau told AAP.

Australia is competing with China and other countries for influence in the region and the PNG deal comes after an agreement with Vanuatu hit a stumbling block.

PNG is one of three nations in the Pacific with a military, alongside Fiji and Tonga.

PNG viewed itself as a “big brother” in the Pacific and was seeking a more dominant role as it marked 50 years since gaining independence from Australia, Mr Nobetau said.

“This sets the tone of what the biggest country in the Pacific wants to do in terms of security and we may see PNG play a greater role in influencing other countries as well,” he said.

The prime minister will be hoping a big defence boost is enough to win over Donald Trump with the first meeting between the two leaders on the cards.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese could meet face-to-face with US President Donald Trump at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly, where he is expected to seek reassurances about the future of the AUKUS defence agreement.

Nuclear-powered submarines Australia gains under the deal would dock at the Henderson Defence Precinct outside Perth, which has received a $12 billion cash injection.

The US could also choose to have its submarines undergo maintenance at the facility.

The agreement is under review in the US and the Trump administration has urged allies to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product.

Australia’s spend currently sits at about two per cent.

Former Australian Ambassador to the United States Arthur Sinodinos noted the significance of announcing the boost ahead of a possible meeting with Trump.

“The timing would be, I think, pitched to lay the groundwork and have something to put on the table with the president,” he told AAP.

In return, Mr Albanese would be seeking assurances from the president about his support for AUKUS, Mr Sinodinos said.

“While we had indications of support from others in the administration, it’s important for the prime minister to hear it directly from the president,” he said.

It also makes Australia a much more valuable ally, according to Australia Strategic Policy Institute Defence Strategy Director Mike Hughes.

“It’s making up for almost a complete lack of investment in Australia’s ability to build, maintain, sustain and repair vessels, particularly naval military vessels,” he said.

“With the international geopolitical environment deteriorating in the way it is, Australia needs to invest in these sovereign capabilities given we’ve spent decades essentially free riding off of others.”

Defence Minister Richard Marles described the $12 billion funding as the “biggest peacetime increase in Australia’s defence spending” in history, with total expenditure of $25 billion.

Opposition defence spokesman Angus Taylor said it was overdue and didn’t go far enough to support the rotation of US and UK submarines until late into the 2030s

Pope Leo has criticised corporate pay packages that offer executives much higher salaries than their employees in excerpts from his first media interview, citing Tesla’s recent record-breaking compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk.

Leo, originally from Chicago, also spoke about the United Nations, his decades working as a missionary in Peru, how he has been adapting to the role of pope, and his hopes for peace in the bloody, three-year conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

He has shown a more reserved style than his predecessor Pope Francis, who often gave interviews, and prefers to speak from prepared texts. Sunday’s excerpts were released on the Catholic news site Crux.

“CEOs that 60 years ago might have been making four to six times more than what the workers are receiving … 600 times more (now),” Leo said in the interview, conducted at the end of July for a coming biography.

“Yesterday (there was) the news that Elon Musk is going to be the first trillionaire in the world,” he said, discussing Tesla’s $US1 trillion ($A1.5 trillion) compensation plan.

“What does that mean and what’s that about? If that is the only thing that has value anymore, then we’re in big trouble.”

Leo, elected the first US pope by the world’s cardinals in May to replace Francis, criticised the UN as no longer being able to foster effective multilateral diplomacy.

“The United Nations should be the place where many … issues are dealt with,” said Leo. 

“Unfortunately, it seems to be generally recognised that the United Nations, at least at this moment in time, has lost its ability to bring people together on multilateral issues.”

On becoming pope, Leo said he felt more prepared at first to lead the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics on spiritual matters but less prepared to play a major role on the global diplomatic stage.

“The totally new aspect to this job is being thrown onto the level of world leader,” said the pope. 

“I’m learning a lot and feeling very challenged, but not overwhelmed. On that one I had to jump in on the deep end of the pool very quickly.”

Anthony Albanese insists Australia is contributing its fair share on defence spending as the Trump administration pressures allies to ramp up funding.

Ahead of a trip to New York that may result in the prime minister meeting with US President Donald Trump, the federal government has unveiled a $12 billion funding pledge to build the Henderson Defence Precinct in Perth.

“Australia has always pulled our weight,” Mr Albanese said on Sunday.

“We pay our way, and we contribute to our alliance each and every day.”

The “down payment” on the defence hub will help prepare Australia for its future nuclear-powered submarines as the Trump administration reviews the trilateral AUKUS deal and puts pressure on its allies to boost defence spending.

Defence Minister Richard Marles would not comment directly on reports US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would honour the pact between the US, the UK and Australia, but was confident the Trump administration viewed the deal favourably.

“In all the conversations that I’ve had, there has been an enormous sense of positivity about the role that AUKUS can play for the United States,” he told the ABC.

Australia’s defence spending is roughly two per cent of gross domestic product, but the US is pushing the nation to bump it up to 3.5 per cent.

Mr Marles said the government was focused on the “dollar amount” rather than the “range of different measures” for accounting for spending as a percentage of GDP.

“Today is a $12 billion commitment of new money over the decade,” he told reporters in Perth. 

“That is a significant amount of money, and it’s taking our level to almost $70 billion relative to what we inherited over three years ago.

In total, it represented the “biggest peacetime increase in Australia’s defence spending” in history. 

Mr Albanese will fly to the US next week for the United Nations General Assembly, where a face-to-face meeting with President Trump may be on the agenda.

The $12 billion will amount to a down payment for Henderson, with independent planning and advice indicating it will consume about $25 billion over the decade.

The initial funding will go to kick-starting early works while more detailed planning and designs are finalised.

It will underpin the construction of ADF surface vessels, starting with Army landing craft and then the local construction phase of Australia’s future general purpose frigates.

Facilities will also be built to support surface combat vessels and docking capabilities for conventionally-armed but nuclear­-powered submarines from the early 2030s.

The undertakings will clear the decks for delivery of Australia’s first Virginia-class submarine.

Opposition defence spokesperson Angus Taylor welcomed the $12 billion earmarked for the Henderson precinct but said it was overdue and far from an “early investment”.

“On the government’s timeline, this investment will not go far enough to support the rotation of US and UK submarines until late in the decade, if not longer, when threats could arise far sooner,” he said.

WA Premier Roger Cook praised the investment in his state’s economy.

“This represents over 10,000 local Western Australian jobs, both in construction and the ongoing work around continuous naval ship building here in this precinct, and is a huge opportunity for us,” he said at a press conference with federal ministers.

Australia and Papua New Guinea will upgrade security ties when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits Port Moresby to celebrate the nation’s 50th anniversary of independence.

Citizens of the neighbouring Pacific nation will be able to serve in Australia’s military under the upgraded defence pact though the federal government remains tight-lipped on other speculated details.

Defence Minister Richard Marles would not confirm reports both parties would be required to consult one another if facing a security threat, akin to the requirements spelled out in NATO’s Article Four clause. 

“The prime minister will be signing this in the next few days, and so I’m going to let the prime minister make those announcements,” he told ABC’s Insiders on Sunday.

Mr Marles did indicate PNG recruits to the Australian Defence Force would be “managed” to ensure there was no exodus from the neighbouring military.

“We need to be careful about how we do that if we’re walking down this path with any of the countries in the Pacific, for sure.”

There would be pathways to citizenship, he confirmed, and all members of the ADF would be paid equally.

Mr Albanese will attend anniversary celebrations in Port Moresby this week, where he will meet with his counterpart James Marape to sign the defence pact.

Australia has been working hard to bolster ties with PNG and other Pacific nations as it competes with China and other powers for prominence in the strategically-significant region.

The Commonwealth government has also funnelled $600 million into the creation of an NRL team for PNG.

Australia’s unemployment rate is tipped to remain historically low as workers reap the benefits of tighter than average labour market conditions.

Economists at ANZ Bank expect the jobless rate to hold steady at 4.2 per cent when the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes its labour force update for August on Thursday.

Other than a brief moment in June this year, the unemployment rate has held below 4.3 per cent since late 2021.

It’s a remarkable run of strength for the nation’s labour market, considering Australians had become accustomed to seeing the rate with a five in front of it before the COVID-19  pandemic.

The consensus of economists expects something similar to the 24,500 extra jobs created in July, although ANZ’s Aaron Luk predicts an even stronger addition of 32,500.

“Leading indicators – like ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads, forward orders and the employment sub-component from the NAB Business Survey – suggest demand for labour remains robust,” he said.

The tightness of the labour market has given workers the upper hand in recent years, resulting in them receiving a larger share of the economic slice, says Westpac senior economist Pat Bustamante.

Weak consumer demand has also meant that businesses have not been able to fully pass on higher costs to consumers.

“With labour costs rising, this has seen an increase in the share of income going to labour,” he said. 

“The share in the domestically-oriented market sector is approaching the peaks seen during the terms of trade boom in the 2000s, when labour market conditions were extremely tight.”

Real wage growth is at a five-year high, which combined with falling interest rates and income tax cuts flowing through to disposable income, is starting to flow through to higher living standards and consumption.

Large wage rise decisions handed down by the Fair Work Commission had also increased the share of income going to workers, which has amounted to around $28 billion in additional income over the past year, Mr Bustamante said.

The proportion of the economy’s total income going to wages has risen to 54 per cent from below half when Labour was elected, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

“That’s a good thing for working people,” he said.

“Strong and sustainable wages growth is central to our strategy to help people with the cost of living and we are making welcome progress.”

Mr Bustamante said productivity growth was picking up and underlying labour costs were moderating for businesses.

Meanwhile, ongoing weak demand limited how much businesses could pass on higher costs to consumers.

Altogether, it painted a picture of a low-inflation environment that was, from a central bank’s perspective, a “sweet spot”, Mr Bustamante said.

Elsewhere, Wall Street investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week, where an interest rate cut to counter a slowdown in the US job market is widely tipped.

The Nasdaq notched a record high close in a mixed Friday trading session. Lifted by Tesla, Microsoft and other technology-related stocks, all three main indices in fact hit highs only for the other two to dip again.

The S&P 500 declined 0.05 per cent to end the session at 6,584.29 points, the Nasdaq gained 0.45 per cent to 22,141.10 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.59 per cent to 45,834.22 points.

At home, share futures tumbled 59 points, or 0.66 per cent, to 11,060, while the S&P/ASX200 rebounded 59.9 points, or 0.68 per cent, to 8,864.9 on Friday, as the broader All Ordinaries jumped 57.3 points, or 0.63 per cent, to 9,128.7.