The Reserve Bank board was widely expected to raise interest rates again.

In the end it was a photo finish.

The central bank’s monetary policy board voted five-four in favour of a 25-basis point rate hike on Tuesday, taking the official cash rate to 4.1 per cent.

It was the narrowest decision since the RBA began publishing the votes.

But the split was not down to a disagreement over whether to hike or not, said Governor Michele Bullock.

The argument was one of timing.

The board agreed demand was too high for supply in Australia, even before the Middle East conflict closed a key oil artery and added another supply shock to the system.

But given the uncertainty around the geopolitical situation and the speed at which events are liable to change, the four dissenters wanted more time to assess the situation, Ms Bullock revealed.

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the split decision made a third successive hike look less certain, but retained her call for a May rate rise as the question was one of timing.

“Whether the conflict in the Middle East is still ongoing and how it evolves from here will be crucial,” she said.

Only US President Donald Trump can know whether the war will still be raging come May. In a protracted conflict, commodity analysts have warned benchmark oil prices could rise above $US150 a barrel. 

That would add more than 80c a litre to pre-war petrol prices and cause inflation to ripple over all aspects of the economy.

On the other hand, the longer the war drags on, the higher the risk of an economic downturn.

“Another possibility is that developments in the Middle East, particularly the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, deliver more of a global downturn that flows through to Australia too,” HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said.

“Our central case is that the RBA needs to deliver more tightening yet, with a hike pencilled in for May. However, there is considerable risk around this view, particularly given current global uncertainties.”

Australia’s labour market is still looking strong but Ms Bullock said the bank did not want to see a recession or a large rise in unemployment if it could avoid it.

“If it does look like the world economy is in big trouble, and Australia, then that will have different implications for inflation, and we will be looking very hard at what we need to do in the circumstances,” she said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said developments in the Middle East were making Australia’s inflation challenge worse. 

“The impacts of what we’re seeing in that part of the world are already substantial, but we don’t know yet how enduring those very substantial economic pressures will be,” he told reporters in Canberra.

“It depends very heavily on how long the conflict in the Middle East continues for.”

Stranded travellers are helping keep Australia’s hotels afloat amid massive cancellations driven by the war in the Middle East.

The conflict has driven up the cost of petrol and diesel at home, and jet fuel around the world, causing chaos for international travel and disrupting global supply chains.

The nation’s accommodation sector had dealt with widespread and significant cancellations over the past fortnight as tourists from around the world – many who planned to travel to or through the Middle East – were forced to stay home, Accommodation Australia chief executive James Goodwin said.

“There’s been enormous levels of disruption in the sector,” he told AAP.

While Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane were predominantly affected, other areas dependent on international travellers like Kangaroo Island, Uluru and the Great Barrier Reef were also being impacted.

But Mr Goodwin said occupancy rates had remained stable, because stranded travellers and aviation staff were forced to stay in Australia for longer than planned.

In one instance after the conflict broke out, a Melbourne hotel was asked to provide 130 rooms to accommodate air crew from a Middle Eastern carrier.

Tourism and Transport forum boss Margie Osmond said the industry was expecting Australian travellers to stay closer to home as high fuel prices and the soaring cost of air travel put a damper on exotic destinations.

“I think that the fuel issue for most of those holiday makers is likely to be one that relates to their own driving behaviours,” she said.

“It’s a consumer uncertainty issue at the moment, more than anything else.”

But Ms Osmond said there would likely be an upside in the form of generous deals to entice Australians to continue travelling around the country.

While some travellers were still deciding how to respond, the nation’s freight sector says it’s facing significant pressure from skyrocketing fuel prices.

Australian Logistics Council chief executive Hermione Parsons said the ongoing price shocks had shaken the industry to its core and would leave a lasting impact.

Transport operators were negotiating with companies down the supply chain to pass the increased freight costs onto customers over the next few weeks.

“Diesel is the main energy source of transport in Australia,” she said.

“The current instability is adding pressure upon pressure on an already pressured system.”

Some freight companies are being forced to leave trucks sitting in yards, rather than moving goods, because of ongoing issues with fuel supply, one trucking industry source said.

Global backlogs and price hikes would likely be felt for years after the Middle East conflict ends, Dr Parsons warned.

Discounts on capital gains tax have been found to skew the housing market in favour of investors at the expense of owner-occupiers, as the federal government is urged to scrap the controversial measure.

A parliamentary inquiry report into the capital gains discount, released on Tuesday, found the benefits of the tax deductions were unequally distributed and distorted the availability of housing stock across Australia.

Introduced by the Howard government in 1999, the measure allows for a 50 per cent discount on the tax of investment properties sold after being owned for one year.

Labor has been urged to make changes to the tax discount to boost intergenerational fairness, and is tipped to reduce the percentage of it in May’s federal budget.

“There is evidence that the concessions provided by the capital gains tax discount, in combination with negative gearing, have skewed the ownership of housing away from owner-occupiers and towards investors,” the report said.

“The benefits of the capital gains tax discount are also unequally distributed, with implications for income and wealth inequality and intergenerational inequality.”

The inquiry was chaired by Greens senator Nick McKim, who recommended for the tax discount to be scrapped entirely for investment properties.

He said the report was an historic opportunity to enact meaningful change for young Australians looking to get into the housing market

“The only limits are Labor’s ambition and courage,” he said.

“The combination of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount has driven rampant property speculation and inflated house prices over the last 26 years.”

Rather than grandfather in the tax discount, the Greens have recommended it be phased out as part of reforms.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said ahead of the report’s release some of the findings from political parties would be predictable.

“No doubt the committee’s made a range of findings. We’ll consider those in the usual way as part of our broader work,” he told reporters in Canberra.

“We try and engage with these committees in the most respectful way that we can. But these decisions ultimately get taken by the cabinet, not by parliamentary committees.”

In a dissenting report, the coalition said supply was the issue most affecting entry to the property market and said the tax discount was working as intended.

“Abolition of the capital gains tax discount would discourage new construction, undermine supply, and so push housing prices up. It is simple economics,” Liberal senator Andrew Bragg said.

“The real agenda appears to be the attempted replacement of mum-and-dad investors with institutional landlords which is frankly un-Australian.”

Shock jock Kyle Sandilands says his listeners still want him to return to his show as deadline day arrives for a decision on whether he will be fired by his employer.

Appearing outside his Sydney house on Tuesday, Sandilands said he had not heard anything from KIIS FM parent company ARN about whether they would terminate his $100 million contract for inappropriate conduct.

Sandilands has previously denied he breached his contract by criticising co-host Jackie “Jackie O” Henderson on-air on February 20.

But ARN suspended the controversial host on March 3 and said he had 14 days to remedy the breach, meaning a decision on whether he will return to the airwaves is expected on Tuesday.

“At the end of the day, I’ve got a contract with ARN and I expect them to honour that,” Sandilands said on Tuesday.

“I do have some options if they don’t.”

When asked about whether he would investigate buying out the media company, which has a market cap of about $106 million, Sandilands smiled and said he had “many options”.

“I still want to do the show, the listeners want me back on doing the show,” Sandilands said.

The friction between the hosts stemmed from Sandilands berating Henderson during a live broadcast, where he criticised her after she looked into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s horoscope.

“You’re off with the fairies … every segment, every time you’ve spoken, you don’t even know what’s going on,” Sandilands said in his rant.

“You’re not doing the rest of the job and everyone in this building has mentioned it to me.”

ARN said in a statement to the ASX on March 3 that Henderson gave notice she could no longer work with her co-host and it considered Sandilands’ comments a breach of his agreement with the company.

The Sydney ratings darlings are in the second year of a decade-long, $200 million contract which coincided with a poorly received entry into the Melbourne radio market.

On Monday, the now-dormant show was hit with new licence terms should it return to the air.

Repeated decency breaches prompted the media regulator to order ARN to ensure no offensive or explicit sexual content went to air on the show.

Keen royal enthusiasts have turned out to try and catch a glimpse of the Danish king and queen as they continue their tour of Australia.

King Frederik and Queen Mary on Tuesday visited Melbourne, starting the day with an official reception at Victoria’s Government House.

The pair spent much of their afternoon visiting sustainable and renewable energy developments, with a stop at a project in the inner-city suburb of Prahran.

Host mother Cris had decided to take her Danish high school exchange student Ulrich to catch a glimpse of the royals as they walked out in public.

“Catch a glimpse, perhaps a wave. Tick and tick,” Cris told AAP.

It was a special moment for the Danish exchange student who has been to the palace for the King’s birthday and also during royal events at home.

“I’ve seen them before, but not as personal as this,” Ulrich said.

“It was pretty cool, like, getting eye contact with the queen was really cool.”

“She clearly recognised his (red and white) scarf. She was walking, and then she looked, and then she looked again,” Cris said.

For workers Sarah Muschamp and Amelia Annat, a chance to see Danish royalty was a once in a lifetime opportunity.

“We ran off and left our lunch behind … they are so close and this is too much of a good opportunity,” Ms Annat said.

“We saw the entourage and the police and the sirens and everything in the buses, and we knew something was going on.”

Ms Muschamp likened Queen Mary’s story to an Australian fairytale.

“It’s not a normal day. It’s a bit of glamour, just fun. Although my mum would kill me if I didn’t get a glimpse of her,” she said.

The royal couple were earlier greeted by Governor Margaret Gardner and her husband Glyn Davis for an official reception and signing of the visitors book at Government House

The pair are spending Tuesday and Wednesday in Australia’s laneway and coffee capital, before continuing on to Mary’s home state of Tasmania.

It is their first visit to Australia since taking the throne in 2024 and has already included a meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and other dignitaries in Canberra, and a visit to Uluru.

King Frederik described Australia as the couple’s second home, having met the Hobart-born queen in a Sydney pub during the 2000 Olympics, before the pair wed in 2004.

After touching down in Australia on Saturday, the pair snapped pictures at Uluru’s sunset viewing site and heard about the Anangu people’s spiritual and cultural connection to the lands.

They also took a guided walk to Mutitjulu Waterhole in the Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park, with the Queen describing their time in the Northern Territory as, “a really great start to what will be an exciting visit”.

The official aim of the trip is to deepen trade ties between Queen Mary’s adopted and home countries, with a focus on clean energy.

Two-way trade between Australia and Denmark was valued at more than $3 billion in 2024, primarily made up of imports from the Scandinavian country.

They are expected to spend time with Queen Mary’s relatives in Tasmania, including her elderly father John Donaldson.

Australia’s second-biggest listed coal miner has been reaping the benefits of higher prices since the US-led war on Iran began almost three weeks ago.

New Hope Corporation chief executive Rob Bishop said the escalating conflict, which has spread across the Middle East and caused death and displacement, was “deeply distressing.”

It had also hardened concerns around global energy security, putting upward pressure on coal prices.

Mr Bishop indicated New Hope’s contracts were tied to the spot price of coal, which means it has seen that benefit since the war began on February 28.

New Hope made a first-half bottom-line net profit of $54.3 million, down 84 per cent from the $340.3 million in the previous corresponding period.

Its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell 58.5 per cent to $214.8 million, for the half year ended January 31.

The result followed a fall in the coal price in the half, despite production being in line with expectations.

Newcastle coal was trading for $US135 a ton on Tuesday, up from just under $100 at the start of 2006, but it’s still under the peak of around $US145 seen in August 2024.

New Hope had long-term customers who continued to take the company’s coal pursuant to long-term contracts, with only a small amount sold on the open market, Mr Bishop said.

“I think it’s fair to say that there was a lot of learnings from the Ukraine crisis with regards to security of energy supply,” he told analysts during an earnings call.

“But certainly, as we’ve seen, coal prices have increased and we’ve seen the direct benefit of that given all of our coal is contracted to the industry.

“So that is starting to flow through our results for the second half of the year for this group.”

Mr Bishop said there were a number of reasons why coal prices hadn’t spiked as much as gas had on the back of the latest Middle East conflict.

“I think things could change very quickly if there was a major impact to gas supplies or the like,” he added.

New Hope was the second-worst performer in the ASX200 companies index on Tuesday afternoon, with its shares changing hands at $4.955, down 6.5 per cent from Monday.

New Hope will pay shareholders an interim dividend of 10 cents a share, down from 19 cents a year ago.

Headquartered in Brisbane, New Hope’s assets include the New Acland coalmine in Queensland, the Bengalla coalmine in NSW and the Brisbane Coal Terminal at the Port of Brisbane.

In the first six months of fiscal 2026, New Hope mined 5.5 million tonnes of coal, 0.4 per cent more than a year ago, amid a ramp-up of operations at New Acland in southeast Queensland.

“In a lower coal price environment, our assets remain resilient and continue to generate solid margins,” Mr Bishop said.

US President Donald Trump is seeking to delay a highly anticipated trip to China in early April by about a month because of the Iran war.

“We’ve requested that we delay it a ‌month or so,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday.

China’s embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump’s requested delay in his scheduled March 31-April 2 trip ‌to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping underscores how the Iran war has upended his foreign policy agenda.

It also risks magnifying tensions between Washington and Beijing, as the Mideast crisis has joined trade and Taiwan among the spectrum of issues separating the world’s two biggest economies.

Iran has responded to joint US-Israeli attacks by threatening to fire on vessels moving through the strait, through which its own ships continue to transit at near-normal rates.

Trump has called on numerous nations, including China, to help ships safely transit the ‌Strait of Hormuz, where ‌one-fifth of the world’s oil ⁠transits on a daily basis.

Trump’s request for assistance so far has largely been rebuffed. China, which imported around 12 ​million barrels of oil daily in the first two months of 2026, most in the world, has not directly responded to his request.

“The president looks forward to visiting China,” spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

“The dates may be moved. As commander-in-chief, it’s his number-one priority right now to ensure the continued success of this operation, Epic Fury. So we’ll keep you posted on the dates as soon as we can.”

Routine medical marijuana use for mental health issues is rarely justified, a groundbreaking Australian study has found.

More than one million Australians have used medicinal cannabis at some stage, mostly in the past five years, many for managing depression, anxiety and PTSD.

But a meta-analysis of peer-reviewed research including 54 randomised controlled trials since 1980 suggests there is little evidence the drug is effective for the conditions.

While evidence showed that medicinal cannabis was helpful for treating autism, Tourette’s syndrome and insomnia, the Australian researchers concluded routine cannabis use for mental health patients was rarely justified.

The study was published in The Lancet Psychiatry on Tuesday.

Overprescription had the potential to do more harm than good, lead author Jack Wilson said.

“We now know that the risk of developing a cannabis-use disorder among those who are using cannabis for medical use, compared to those using cannabis non-medically, is just as high,” Dr Wilson told AAP.

“It can also make your mental health symptoms worse.”

The study, led by researchers at the University of Sydney, the University of Queensland and Monash, found medical marijuana intensified cocaine cravings among those with a dependency.

People who took cannabis products in the reviewed studies experienced significantly more side effects compared with people in the trials who had a placebo, but serious adverse events and study withdrawals did not differ between groups.

The research pointed to a gap between the evidence in favour of cannabis use and its clinical administration, suggesting it could delay the implementation of more effective therapies for mental health patients.

“The evidence just falls short for using these medicines as treatment for those conditions,” Dr Wilson said.

Australia legalised medicinal cannabis in 2016 and relaxed regulations governing its use in 2021 to allow its expansion to treat more than 250 health conditions.

That is consistent with worldwide trends, with recreational and medical use rising in recent decades as more nations legalise it, a 2024 study found

The Australian Medical Association and other medical peak bodies have raised concerns about the drug’s largely unregulated growth, noting there is no limit to the concentration of tetrahydrocannabinol or THC, the psychoactive component in cannabis, in products on the market.

The vast majority of cannabis medications available to Australians have not been approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration, the national drug regulator.

A review by the drug regulator received more than 750 submissions, many arguing for stronger product quality standards and more stringent labelling requirements.

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The Iranian women’s soccer team has left Malaysia for Oman as the two remaining members seeking asylum in Australia joined a local A-League club for training.

The departure ends days of uncertainty after five of the seven squad members who sparked a diplomatic furore by seeking asylum in Australia reversed their decisions and rejoined the team in Kuala Lumpur.

Members of the squad declined to speak to reporters as they spent several hours at the airport checking in and waiting for their flight on Monday night. 

Meanwhile, the two players who remained in Australia joined a training session with the women’s A-League club, the Brisbane Roar.

The club released photos of Monday’s training session, with Fatemeh Pasandideh and Atefeh Ramezanisadeh smiling and wearing the Queensland team’s colours.

Brisbane Roar CEO, Kaz Patafta said his club welcomed and supported the players but declined to comment further, directing questions to the Department of Home Affairs.

“We remain committed to providing a supportive environment for them whilst they navigate the next stages,” he said.

Asian Football Confederation general secretary Windsor John earlier told The Associated Press his organisation was supporting the Iranian team in Kuala Lumpur.

He said the AFC was told they are flying to Oman, but that isn’t their final destination and that he wasn’t aware of their full travel plans.

Asked if the confederation was satisfied that the women would be safe back in Iran, Mr Windsor said the AFC and FIFA would check up on them regularly with the Iranian football federation “as they are our girls as well”.

The squad flew from Sydney to Kuala Lumpur a week ago after being knocked out of the Women’s Asian Cup in Australia, initially leaving behind six players and a support worker who had accepted protection visas.

Four players and the staffer have since rejoined the team in Kuala Lumpur, the latest flying in on Monday. 

No reasons have been given for the changes of heart. The Iranian diaspora in Australia blames pressure from Tehran. 

Mr Windsor said at a news conference earlier his confederation had not received any direct complaints from players about returning home, despite media reports their families in Iran could face retaliation for the team failing to sing their national anthem before the opening match. 

The silence during the anthem was variously reported as an act of resistance or a show of mourning. The team didn’t clarify, and it sang at the opening of a later match.

“We couldn’t verify anything. We asked them and they said, ‘No, it’s okay,'” he said. 

“They are actually in high spirits … they didn’t look afraid.”

Iranian authorities welcomed the women’s decisions to reject asylum as a victory against Australia and US President Donald Trump. 

Iran’s squad had arrived in Australia for the tournament shortly before the war in the Middle East began on February 28, complicating travel arrangements.

Assistant Immigration Minister Matt Thistlethwaite described the women’s plight in Australia as a “very complex situation”.

“These are deeply personal decisions, and the government respects the decisions of those that have chosen to return. And we continue to offer support to the two that are remaining,” Mr Thistlethwaite said.

The two players who stayed in Australia have been moved to an undisclosed safe location and are receiving assistance from the government and the Iranian diaspora community, he said.

Concerns about the team’s safety in Iran heightened when the players didn’t sing the Iranian national anthem.

The Australian government was urged to help the women by Iranian groups in Australia and by Trump.

The embassy in Canberra, remains staffed, despite the Australian government expelling the ambassador last year.

with AP

Australia’s consumer watchdog will haul in major fuel suppliers for an explanation on skyrocketing prices.

A number of retailers including Ampol, BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and 7-Eleven will be among the companies summoned by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission for an emergency meeting. 

Iran has closed one of the world’s most important oil corridors, the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the US-Israel war on the country.

This has led to a spike in oil prices, sending unleaded petrol in Australia’s major cities above $2.20 a litre, and diesel to more than $2.60 a litre.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the steep increases in petrol prices after war in the Middle East broke out had raised serious concerns at the ACCC.

“The ACCC are hauling the petrol suppliers and retailers in for an explanation,” he said.

“I’ve made it very clear that if they find evidence of misconduct, we expect the ACCC to throw the book at them.”

Labor has previously asked the consumer watchdog to monitor prices after war erupted to ensure motorists weren’t taken for “mugs”.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen said fuel standards will be relaxed for two months to allow more supply to combat shortages at the bowser.

This will bring an extra 100 million litres a month, the equivalent of about two days’ worth of supply.

Motoring groups and the federal government have urged Australians to stop panic buying and stockpiling fuel, reassuring the community fuel was still arriving into the country.

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce has suggested reserving fuel for farmers and regional areas by introducing rationing for the cities as the war drags on.

Fuel transport companies have thrown their support behind the proposal.

But the NRMA has opposed the idea, saying rations would cause unnecessary economic and social impacts.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said the government needed to acknowledge there was a problem with fuel supply.

“What’s needed is to move the fuel through the supply chain as quick as possible,” he told Nine’s Today on Tuesday.

“We’ve got a refinery exporting its fuel … that fuel needs to go to Australians.”

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said it was the government’s responsibility to think through contingencies and be ready to respond to issues as a result of the war.

“Every lever that we’ve got available is being utilised, and we will continue to do that as the conflict continues,” she told ABC News Breakfast.