Australia’s central bank appears set to offer mortgage holders some repayment relief a month on from its shock decision to keep interest rates on hold.
The Reserve Bank of Australia board, which meets on Monday and Tuesday, is widely tipped to shave 25 basis points off the official cash rate, taking the figure to 3.6 per cent.
Each 25 basis point cut to interest rates shaves about $90 off monthly repayments on a $600,000 mortgage, assuming banks pass on the reduction in full.
The cash rate was last at 3.6 per cent in April 2023.
A surprise jump in unemployment combined with inflation data within the RBA’s target zone should make a cut on Tuesday almost inevitable, Westpac Group chief economist Luci Ellis said.
“Further cuts in November, February 2026 and May 2026 also look increasingly likely,” she said.
“We think this is at the lower end of what could be regarded as neutral, and would reflect the RBA’s response to a path for underlying inflation that turns out a little lower than what it forecast in May.”
In a move that caught analysts and many mortgage holders off-guard, the central bank in July kept the cash rate steady at 3.85 per cent.
Most economists had pencilled in a 25 basis point cut on the back of slowing inflation.
The RBA board said maintaining price stability and full employment was the priority.
“The board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis,” the post-meeting statement read.
The latest quarterly inflation data showed the preferred figure of trimmed mean running at 2.7 per cent on an annual basis.
“That should be a pleasant surprise as the RBA had unofficially revised up its forecasts based on the April and May monthly CPI reports,” CreditorWatch chief economist Ivan Colhoun said.
“(We) expect the RBA board to vote unanimously to deliver another interest rate cut … this will be welcome news for both consumers and businesses alike.”
The jobless rate rose to 4.3 per cent, surpassing expectations, as the number of unemployed Australians jumped.
Financial markets expected the rate to remain steady at 4.1 per cent in June.
KPMG senior economist Terry Rawnsley said there was nothing in the various data points that should prevent a rate cut.
“Australia’s labour market remains resilient, despite signs of moderation, with unemployment at 4.3 per cent, its highest level since late 2021, but still historically low … this has been critical in helping households navigate the cost-of-living crisis,” he said.
“However, ongoing headwinds reinforce the need for interest rate cuts to sustain our labour market strength going forward.”
Interest rate markets have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point cut to the official cash rate at the August meeting and project a fall to 3.2 per cent by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, US stocks ended the week up with the technology-heavy Nasdaq reaching a record high and all three major indexes logging gains.
Australian share futures lifted five points to be up 0.05 per cent, setting up a positive start to trading on Monday after a drop on local markets on Friday.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index ground 24.3 points lower, falling 0.28 per cent to 8.807.1, while the broader All Ordinaries fell 25.4 points, or 0.28 per cent, to 9,076.6.
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