The unusual resilience of Australia’s jobs market is expected to continue in fresh data due out this week.
Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ labour force release on Thursday.
Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy.
NAB’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health.
The bank’s monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high.
Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year.
“I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward,” he told AAP.
“The timing of cuts is not super important. It’s more about where do they end up.”
Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth.
Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said.
Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter.
The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years.
After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January.
Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada.
The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners.
The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points.
Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3.
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