Labor will tout its most restrained budget yet as sweeping changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme allow it to bank more savings than increased spending.
But the government also faces accusations it is coming after “mum and dad” investors as family trusts join capital gains tax discounts and negative gearing on the list of possible targets for change.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who will hand down the federal budget on May 12, said on Monday the fiscal blueprint would feature net savings for the second consecutive year.
Labor recently announced at least 160,000 people were expected to be removed from the NDIS by 2030 as the government curbs growth in spending on the scheme.
The move will do the heavy lifting in budget repair, providing more than $35 billion in forecast savings, although states have sounded the alarm about the financial burden of people with disabilities being shifted onto their health and education systems.
A further $3 billion will be saved by removing the age-based loading for the private health insurance rebate, also announced in April.
Dr Chalmers said the government had shown restraint in its budget measures.
“Responsible economic management has been a hallmark of this Albanese government and the May budget will be our most responsible yet,” he said.
Senior Labor figures have done little to dampen expectations the budget will deliver major changes to the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing for investment properties.
Asked on Sunday if the public would support changes Labor had not taken to the 2025 election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said voters would make their own decisions about his government’s record.
He indicated the measures could go after existing investments, responding that everything in the budget was focused on “immediate needs” when asked about so-called grandfathering arrangements.
The government is also reportedly considering tax changes for family trusts.
In a speech to the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Melbourne on Monday, shadow treasurer Tim Wilson will paint the expected changes as a “tax agenda assault on family”.
“Their capital gains tax applies to everyday Australians, mums and dads, but probably won’t to industry super funds nor foreign investors in renewable energy,” he will tell the business group.
“Labor is building a class of Australians dependent on them being in office. This government is not about a better Australia; it is about securing power.”
The government will suspend the commercial broadcasting tax for a further two years as part of the budget, which it estimated would save the industry $111 million through to June 2028.
The move follows announced restrictions on gambling advertising, which are expected to hit many media companies’ bottom lines.
Communications Minister Anika Wells said the changes eased financial pressure on the industry and helped ensure communities had access to free-to-air television and radio.
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