Australian fruit will be the apple of the world’s eye, with El Nino set to become the surprise cherry on top of a strong season for the nation’s growers.
The climatic phase linked to hotter weather is forecast to usher in a dry spring after winter rainfall, conditions that are set to boost the stone fruit harvest, according to an agriculture industry forecast.
A bumper crop would help meet Australian shoppers’ strong demand for inexpensive fruit, as cost-of-living pressures continue to bite.
Households were increasingly eating imperfect produce for its lower per-kilo price, the report said.
“The industry continues to push campaigns demonstrating that minor cosmetic blemishes do not impact product quality,” Bendigo Bank’s Australian Agriculture mid-year outlook released on Tuesday said.
“These initiatives are successfully helping retailers cater to cost-conscious shoppers while allowing producers to minimise food waste.”
Export demand for stone fruit was likely to increase due to adverse weather forecasts in the competing markets of Peru and Chile.
Vegetable growers face tougher conditions, with the Iran war bumping up fertiliser costs and forcing many producers to reduce their April and May plantings.
Consumers could notice lower availability across leafy greens, peas, broccoli and cauliflower later in 2026, the report said.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sparked by the war, also hit vegetable exports hard.
The Middle East market, which accounted for a third of Australian vegetable exports in 2025 dropped by nearly 18 per cent.
Cattle producers were likely to hold onto their herds after May rainfall produced better pastures and soil moisture, the report said.
Beef exports were likely to remain strong, with continued demand from the United States.
The sector was also on alert for the H5N1 bird flu, which spread to dairy herds in the US.
However, an Australian government assessment found the risk of the virus spreading to dairy herds and pig was “low” due to different farming practices, with only a “negligible” risk for beef cattle, sheep and goats.
While 2026 got off to a strong start, the shaky ground across climate, biosecurity and geopolitics had the potential to “dramatically swing the dial”, the bank’s report said.
“While the widespread rainfall to start winter has been a welcome relief and has boosted confidence, there is no doubt the stakes are higher this year,” the bank’s senior manager Eliza Redfern said.
“Farmers’ production and profitability will be tested as they manage these significant cost pressures and seasonal risks through the remainder of the year.”
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