A state treasurer has been urged to throw out the usual pre-election budget playbook as health costs and debt mount.
More than $2 billion in spending measures have been unveiled in the lead up to Tuesday’s Victorian budget, including free and half-priced public transport and discounted car registration.
Victoria remains on track to accrue $192.6 billion in net debt by mid-2029, pushing the state’s daily interest bill past $28 million.
Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Sally Curtain said the peak business body wasn’t against cost-of-living relief but suggested it wasn’t targeted enough.
“If we continue to do this spending, we’re simply unable to repay the debt, and if you can’t repay it then business and Victorians will simply be taxed more into the future,” she told AAP.
“We didn’t have such a significant debt when we entered COVID … essentially the cupboard is bare.”
Ms Curtin said the business community catchcry of “anywhere but Melbourne” and “anywhere but Victoria” was not a media concoction but rather being relayed to her by members and interstate counterparts.
“They (other states) are relishing investors coming their way who would otherwise be coming to Victoria,” she said.
“This is very real.”
Analysis by the e61 Institute, an independent think tank lead by former productivity commissioner Michael Brennan, shows Victoria’s interest repayments have doubled from 0.6 per cent of gross state product to 1.2 per cent since 2019.
Health spending has ticked up from about 4.25 per cent of GSP to five per cent in that span, with the cost of treating each patient in Victoria rising above the national average.
“Victoria is not broke, but it is increasingly boxed in,” the e61 Institute report said.
“The finances are weak, with limited room to manoeuvre.
“Treasurer (Jaclyn) Symes has the unenviable task of delivering a budget that maintains a credible fiscal trajectory, repairs past fiscal damage and deals with the health and hospitals juggernaut.”
While Victorians face another cost-of-living shock ahead of the November state election, the think tank argued current challenges necessitated a shift from past budget habits.
“It is certainly no time or place for the usual pre-election playbook,” it said.
In December, the mid-year budget update forecast Victoria to post an operating surplus of $600 million this financial year and $1.9 billion next financial year.
Premier Jacinta Allan on Monday reiterated those surpluses would not be ditched and the budget papers would show net debt reducing as a share of the state economy.
Victoria will use the “strength” of the budget to ease the pain for under-pressure families, Ms Allan said.
“No Victorian can control what is going on in terms of Donald Trump’s war in Iran,” the premier told reporters.
“But we’ve got to accept that it’s having a real and material (impact).”
Rolling teacher strikes, due to start this week to coincide with the budget’s release, were called off for two weeks on Monday as the education union and Victorian government inched closer to a pay deal.
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