A once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve disability support by removing tens of thousands of children from the NDIS might be bungled, advocates warn.
The plan for autistic and developmentally delayed kids to roll off the NDIS – called Thriving Kids – will enter its first phase on Thursday.
States will chip in $4 billion over five years to take youngsters aged eight or below with low-to-moderate needs off the hands of the federal government, which will also contribute $2 billion.
The first changes include launching a website and autism helpline, and kickstarting a transitory rollout period until January 2028 when kids migrate to state programs.
But the community was still in the dark about how Thriving Kids would eventually work, Autism Association of Australia chief executive Nicole Rogerson told AAP.
“The remaining question … is how much autism is enough autism to get into the NDIS?” she said.
Deciding which kids should go where and what will happen after children turn eight also remains largely a mystery.
“No state or territory has invested in allied health for school-age children,” incoming Royal Australian College of Physicians child health division president Paul Hotton told AAP.
“What’s going to happen to these children? None of (the states) can answer.”
All jurisdictions bar Queensland have signed on to Thriving Kids, worrying advocates who say the new scheme might beat a path back to the highly fragmented pre-2013 system which preceded the NDIS.
But the painful decision to remove swathes of children from federal supports was necessary after governments had been snoozing at the wheel, according to Ms Rogerson.
“Successive governments over many years have not made the access rules to the NDIS tough enough,” she said, adding the federal scheme had long been “the only lifeboat in the ocean”.
“Parents aren’t sitting around … rubbing their hands together in glee, saying ‘gee, I hope my child’s got a disability so they can end up in the NDIS’,” Ms Rogerson said.
“When a child has delays, the NDIS was the scheme to help them.”
Thriving Kids was announced by NDIS Minister Mark Butler in August 2025 as a way to rein in costs of the disability scheme.
Dr Hotton said Thriving Kids could theoretically be better for looking after mildly autistic children, but was as yet unlikely to meet its potential.
“Thriving Kids is needed, NDIS is not working,” Dr Hotton said, adding Thriving Kids needed medical overseers.
“NDIS never worked because it doesn’t have real good clinical governance oversight … if we’re going to do something for children, there should be a national paediatrician,” he said.
The advocates also flagged Canberra had likely low-balled the cost of administering Thriving Kids, similar to its consistently underestimating the cost of the NDIS.
“What does this look like in 10 to 15 years if we haven’t given those children the best quality early intervention?” Mr Rogerson said.
“The size of the funding envelope that has been agreed – that math just don’t math for me.”
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