High fuel prices and rising costs in Australia are unlikely to ease despite the routing of the Republicans in the US midterm elections and pledges to end the war in Iran.
But analysts have urged Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to heed lessons from the voter backlash against President Donald Trump’s administration.
The Democrats will have control of the US Congress from January following the landslide vote on Wednesday on the back of promises to halt conflicts and alter tariff conditions.
What they can actually achieve with Mr Trump at the helm is pretty limited, according to David Smith from the United States Studies Centre.
“Most of the foreign policy levers really remain in the hands of the president,” Dr Smith told AAP.
He said any legislation against the Iran war would be largely symbolic and the Democratic leadership is unlikely to have the political will to block military funding or shut down the government.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has pointed to the Iran and Ukraine conflicts as drivers of economic pressure domestically, drawing criticism from the opposition for overlooking the impact of government spending.
President Trump’s so-called “reciprocal tariffs” first introduced in 2025 are also unlikely to be shifted.
“He’s imposed them under a law that allows the executive to impose tariffs in retaliation for what they see as unfair trading practices in other countries, and it looks like at the moment these tariffs are probably going to survive legal challenges,” Dr Smith said.
“We are probably going to be stuck with those tariffs for the next couple of years.”
The seismic shift in US politics, however, represented a warning for Australia’s prime minister if he failed to address economic issues and act on commitments.
“People get very, very impatient when politicians promise to fix the cost of living crisis and then don’t,” Dr Smith said.
“Trump came in in 2024 making huge promises about fixing the cost of living crisis …instead he just did things that made the cost of living crisis worse with tariffs and the Iran war.
“Governments have to present this as ‘this is a long fight that we’re in, and we’re not going to solve the problem immediately, but we’re going to try not to make it worse.'”
The future of right-wing populism in Australia may become clearer after this month’s Victorian election where One Nation is expected to secure at least a number of seats.
The party has sought to distance itself from the US president in recent days, quietly removing a blog post comparing the actions of Donald Trump to “the principles and policies” of the One Nation.
The article posted 48 hours into the second Trump Administration supported moves to block birthright citizenship and the president’s “resolve to combat radical woke ideologies”.
It has since been replaced with an error message.
Most of all, Dr Smith said the midterm results exposed the limits of the Trump-style of politics.
“People can’t eat culture wars,” he said.
“This whole style of just constantly eat up as much attention as possible, never apologise and never really do anything. People are just sick of that.
“Politicians who are trying to emulate that style of politics, they should take warning from this election.”
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