Australia’s peak property season has opened with a whimper, featuring low stock and lacklustre auction success rates.
Capital cities hosted just 1462 auctions in the first week of spring – more than 30 per cent down on the figure for a year earlier.
The combined preliminary clearance rate hit 52.7 per cent, just 0.4 points above the winter average, according to data from Cotality.
But research director Tim Lawless said he expected activity to build during September.
“Auction activity is set to ramp up over the coming weeks, rising to around 1640 next week and 1900 the week after,” he said.
There were some green shoots in the market as Sydney’s preliminary auction clearance rate hit 57.7 per cent, an 18-week high, while Melbourne recorded a preliminary rate of 58.2 per cent.
Clearance rates are seen as a strong leading indicator for property prices, which have been falling since a national market peak in March.
An auction success rate of below 60 per cent typically points to lower home prices.
Clearance rates were lower in the smaller capitals, with Brisbane recording successful sales in just 24.8 per cent of auctions – its second-weakest result of the year.
The subdued start to spring comes after a series of interest rate rises and mid-year tax changes that targeted property investors.
The government in June passed sweeping changes to capital gains taxes, while also rolling back negative gearing incentives for existing properties.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor on Sunday confirmed he was fully committed to repealing the changes.
“The message we want to send is that we will re-establish confidence in the housing market in this country,” he told News24.
Mr Taylor added he was open to maintaining a Morrison-era promise to allow Australians to access their superannuation to fund first home deposits.
“But the important point I would make at this point is that we need to cap immigration based on housing supply, get more houses built, slash the red tape in the construction industry,” he said.
Falling house prices have become a key topic of political debate after Labor modelling showed its tax changes would only have a modest effect on the market.
Many leading economists are forecasting another interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank before the end of 2026, which could trigger further price falls.
National prices are down 3.6 per cent since March, according to Cotality, while in Sydney home prices are 7.1 per cent below their peak.
Labor has pointed to Treasury modelling that showed prices would continue to rise over the coming years.
The Urban Development Institute of Australia has called for supply side measures to improve housing affordability after an analysis showed falling prices had done little to make home ownership more achievable.
National president Oscar Stanley said it needed to be “faster, simpler and more financially viable to actually build the homes Australians need”.
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