Household spending and consumption in the face of prolonged conflict in the Middle East will be weighed by the Reserve Bank, as a key meeting of oil-producing countries is keenly monitored.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will on Tuesday release monthly household spending data, coinciding with ANZ Indeed job ads figures.
The federal government’s scaled-back 16-cents-a-litre extension of the fuel excise reduction for petrol and diesel will also end this week.
Escalating conflict between the US and Iran has caused fuel prices in Australia to jump again as the global oil market comes under renewed pressure.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for one-fifth of the world’s oil, remains disrupted by the war.
Seven members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which represents some of the world’s largest producers, will meet on Sunday to set targets for September.
NAB head of Australian economics Gareth Spence said how households had reacted to the conflict had been closely watched, noting consumer confidence had been weak.
“We sort of expect the growth to slow but the question really is, has it slowed enough that inflation pressure starts to ease or is it slowing too much,” he told AAP.
“None of those trends are very clear right now but where they go in the next few months is going to be quite important for the next move by the RBA.”
Mr Spence said inflation had been lower than expected due to the cut to the fuel excise.
“The risk in the next six months is with cost pressures remaining pretty high, that some of that does translate a bit more through to consumer prices and inflation,” he said.
“It certainly will keep the RBA at least on its toes in the near term.”
The ANZ job ads data was a leading indicator of the labour market, Mr Spence said, and would provide clues as to how businesses were responding to the uncertainty.
The Reserve Bank will decide on the cash rate on August 11.
Meanwhile confidence in AI stocks among Wall Street investors has been bolstered by a strong quarterly report from Amazon despite disappointing results posted by fellow tech heavyweight Apple.
Amazon.com surged over 15 per cent after posting its biggest revenue growth for the period in over four years on Friday.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.70 per cent to end the session at 7,489.72 points. The Nasdaq gained 1.0 per cent to 25,373.85 while the Dow Jones rose 0.53 per cent to 52,485.03.
Australian share futures slipped 85 points, or 0.95 per cent, to 15,010.
The S&P/ASX200 jumped 92 points in early trade but ended Friday just 9.1 points higher, up 0.1 per cent, to 8,976.8, as the broader All Ordinaries gained 14.3 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 9,137.
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