Asian shares wobbled on Tuesday while bonds found their footing following a steep selloff after US President Donald Trump’s decision to pause a planned attack on Iran and his claim there was a good chance of a nuclear deal sent oil prices lower.
Trump said on Monday he had paused a planned attack against Iran to allow for negotiations to take place on a deal to end the war, after Tehran sent a new peace proposal to Washington.
He subsequently said there was a “very good chance” the US could reach an agreement with Iran to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Still, investors remained cautious after being rattled in the previous session by a weekend drone strike in the United Arab Emirates.
“We’ve seen a lot of back and forth already,” said Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG.
“Until we actually see real action happening (in the Strait of Hormuz), whereby ships are passing through safely and we see a material rebound in the numbers of traffic going through in the Strait, I think the market in general is shrugging off the commentary from either side.”
Brent crude futures fell more than 2.0 per cent to $US109.41 ($A152.56) a barrel on the back of Trump’s comments, while US crude was down 1.3 per cent to $US107.25 ($A149.55) per barrel, though both remained more than 50 per cent above their pre-war levels.
In share markets, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.22 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.0 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi fell 2.0 per cent.
Nasdaq futures reversed early gains to trade 0.07 per cent lower, while S&P 500 futures lost 0.03 per cent. In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.4 per cent, while FTSE futures and DAX futures edged 0.3 and 0.4 per cent higher, respectively.
The all-important artificial intelligence trade will be tested by earnings from Nvidia that are due on Wednesday, where expectations are sky-high for the world’s most valuable company.
“Nvidia’s earnings are the ultimate test for a stock market that is not only trading at record highs, but one that also had a breathtaking bounce off of the March lows, as Nvidia is the market’s shorthand for everything AI and this market’s gains have been driven in large part by AI over the past few years,” said Richard Reyle, chief investment officer at Questar Capital Partners.
The fall in oil prices helped stem a steep selloff in global bonds on Tuesday, though worries remained about the lasting inflationary shock from the Iran war.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note eased from a more than one-year high to 4.5974 per cent in early Asian trade, while the two-year yield was down slightly to 4.0564 per cent.
Japanese government bond yields, which shot to record highs in the previous session, were similarly down across the curve.
Overnight, G7 finance ministers acknowledged mounting concerns over public debt and bond market volatility as they met in Paris.
Markets are now pricing in rate hikes from major central banks this year on expectations policymakers will have to tighten policy to combat a resurgence in inflation driven by higher-for-longer energy prices.
“While the economic rationale for pricing persistently higher inflation over the coming years on the current supply shock is weak particularly given the labour market backdrop, a return of supply-side volatility and the sanguine growth tone in markets both argue for more risk premium through the inflation curve,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
In foreign exchange, the dollar has benefited from safe-haven demand since the onset of the war and was up 0.1 per cent at 159 yen, putting traders on alert for any intervention from Tokyo to shore up its ailing currency.
The euro was down 0.1 per cent at $US1.1643 ($A1.6235), while sterling similarly fell 0.1 per cent to $US1.3419 ($A1.8711).
Elsewhere, spot gold eased marginally to $US4,562.50 ($A6,361.81) an ounce, having come under pressure from rising bond yields.
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