Australia’s 2035 climate target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could be a single figure, rather than a range, treasury officials have revealed.
The hotly anticipated number is expected to be released later this week and will help the Labor government and industry better plan the nation’s shift towards net zero emissions.
Early advice provided to the federal government by the Climate Change Authority suggested a reduction in emissions of between 65 and 75 per cent by 2035, leading to speculation that a range would be set in place as the target.
But Treasury officials fronting a parliamentary inquiry on Tuesday said they had only been asked to analyse the economic impacts of one number as a climate target, rather than multiple options.
“The modelling that we have done has a point estimate for 2035,” senior official Alex Heath told the hearing.
“That’s a function of the model that we have, and the difficulty of dealing with ranges,” she said.
Dr Heath said she knew the figure the government had asked Treasury to model, but declined to share it, instead taking the question on notice.
She also said her department had been conducting the modelling for some time, but wouldn’t say whether work started before the election.
Other nations, including the United States, have also submitted a range for their 2035 climate goals.
The inquiry comes after the federal government on Monday released its first National Climate Risk Assessment, which laid out a catastrophic vision of Australia’s future if global warming continues to run unchecked.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has described the climate risk assessment as a wake-up call for anyone who denied global warming existed, as his government prepares to release the 2035 emissions target before the end of the week.
The cost of disaster recovery payments could rise by $40 billion a year as climate hazards compounded, the report warned.
It painted a sobering picture of Australia’s ecosystems, economy and way of life under global warming above pre-industrial levels.
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen acknowledged many Australians would find the climate impacts “confronting” but a vital reminder to keep cutting emissions.
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley and her deputy Ted O’Brien have advocated for “credible” targets that don’t overburden households and businesses.
“We need to reduce emissions, but not at any cost,” they said in a joint statement.
A sharp increase in deaths due to heatwaves was among the most concerning findings of the climate risk assessment.
In addition, as many as 1.5 million people could be impacted by coastal extremes, such as flooding and cyclones, by 2050.
The vulnerabilities of coral reefs to higher ocean temperatures have been well-documented.
But broad-based ecosystem changes can also be expected, with about half the native plant species found in any location anticipated to be different at 3C of warming.
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