The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season.
Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology’s predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts.
Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter.
Weatherzone further described conditions as “unfavourable” early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months.
For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture.
Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead.
BOM’s long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas.
Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations.
“The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow,” he told AAP.
“And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons.”
Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm.
Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base.
Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario.
The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk.
Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O’Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were “profoundly upset” by shortening snow seasons.
“The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change,” she told AAP.
Ms O’Neill said Australia’s snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report.
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