Labor has received a surge of support from voters as early federal election results show a swing towards the Albanese government.
With about five per cent of the national vote counted, Labor received strong positive swings in key marginal seats in Tasmania and Queensland.
Labor also received a 5.1 per cent swing in Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson in Brisbane, with just more than six per cent of the vote counted.
The government had also seen an uptick in votes in battleground seats such as Gilmore in NSW’s south coast.
However, senior Labor figures are treating the early positive results with caution, with concern the on-the-day vote will favour the government more heavily before pre-poll votes turn the tide back to the coalition.
Nationally, there has been a 3.2 per cent swing to Labor over the coalition, with the government ahead 55.3 per cent to 44.7 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said it was still too early to say whether the early swings meant a second term in office was on the cards.
“It’s really important to remind everyone that we expect the early voting to be weaker for us than the on-the-day voting. That’s a caveat that applies around the country,” he said.
It hasn’t been all rosy signs for the government, with swings to independents in traditional Labor strongholds of Bean in the ACT and Franklin in Tasmania.
Mr Dutton said he was still upbeat about the party’s fortunes, but also admitted it would be a tough fight to form government.
“We believe in miracles, but it’s tough. I mean, a first term government hasn’t lost since 1931 and the government’s run a campaign which obviously has been effective in terms of the mud that they’ve thrown,” he told the Nine Network.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be watching the results come in from Sydney, with Labor holding its election night function at the Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL, the same location of its 2022 victory party.
Meanwhile, Mr Dutton will spend election night in his home city of Brisbane, as the coalition has its official function at the W Hotel.
The Greens are hoping to be kingmakers in a minority government, with party leader Adam Bandt hosting an election night event in Melbourne.
However, the minor party has seen swings against it in the three seats it holds in Brisbane, which it won in 2022.
Labor has been leading in national opinion polls throughout the gruelling five-week campaign, but coalition figures are still hoping voters will swing back to the opposition.
Labor starts the night on 78 seats, with the coalition on 57 and 15 on the cross bench, with 76 needed for a majority.
Coalition campaign spokesman James Paterson admitted anger from voters against US President Donald Trump had been a drag on support for right-wing parties.
“One fact I think we can all acknowledge and recognise is the Donald Trump factor. It was devastating in Canada for the Conservatives where the Canadian Conservative leader lost 20 points over the course of a few months,” he told ABC, referring to the country’s recent election.
“That has been a factor here.”
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