US President Donald Trump’s threat to send Iran “back to the Stone Ages” has rattled equity markets.

If he follows through, Australia is at risk of entering a recession.

In a prolonged war scenario, modelled by Oxford Economics Australia, the nation’s gross domestic product would contract 0.3 per cent in the June quarter and fall a further 0.8 per cent in the three months to September.

That would be Australia’s sharpest economic slowdown, excluding COVID-19, since the early 1990s.

Oxford Economics’ baseline forecast is for the war to last two months, meaning the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to ships carrying oil, gas, fertiliser and other crucial commodities at the end of April.

“However, opportunities for de-escalation are narrowing, risking a more prolonged conflict,” Oxford Economics Australia economist Harry McAuley said in a report published on Thursday, shortly after Mr Trump’s hawkish televised primetime speech.

In the prolonged war scenario, oil prices would stay above $US150 a barrel for four months alongside shortages of energy products, pushing global inflation near 7.7 per cent.

The benchmark crude oil price has yet to exceed $US120 a barrel during the conflict, but following Mr Trump’s speech spiked five per cent to $US105 a barrel.

The ASX200 lurched 1.06 per cent lower.

Traders saw little in Mr Trump’s speech that would suggest the Strait of Hormuz would open any time soon.

Although Australia is a net energy exporter, it is highly exposed to the global oil shock as it imports about 85 per cent of its petrol, diesel and jet fuel supplies from overseas, Commonwealth Bank senior economist Ryan Felsman said.

Australia is more dependent on diesel than most major economies, in part due to its vast geography requiring a greater share of trucking, and a large share of mining and agriculture in the economy.

“Energy-intensive agriculture, transport, construction and mining sectors could incur a material hit from persistent fuel shortages and rising input costs,” Mr Felsman said.

As well as the hit from higher input costs, Australian industries will be impacted by weaker economic activity.

CBA continues to expect the Reserve Bank to hike the cash rate again in May to get on top of inflation expectations.

NAB economist Michael Hayes also predicts a 25-basis point lift in May, largely driven by the backdrop of high domestic inflation pressures and a still tight labour market.

Job vacancies rose 2.7 per cent over the three months to February to 338,000 – the highest level in 12 months – the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday.

Almost 60 years after playing a key role in the first moon landing, Australia has again reached for the stars as NASA launched its latest lunar mission.

A South Australian dish has been tasked with assisting the Artemis II mission in a sequel to the nation’s effort during the 1969 landing which inspired a movie.

Four astronauts are aboard the Orion crew capsule attached to the NASA rocket that launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida early on Thursday Australian time.

South Australian-based aerospace company Southern Launch is tracking Orion during its 10-day mission as the United States look to send humans around the moon for the first time since 1972.

Southern Launch is using its TALON telemetry dish at the Koonibba Test Range site, in the state’s remote far west, to keep tabs on Orion decades after Australia’s famous 1969 effort.

Back then a Parkes radio telescope in NSW – known as The Dish – supported the first mission that landed humans on the moon, tracking Apollo 11 and gathering telemetry and TV signals from the historic lunar walk.

Southern Launch chief executive Lloyd Damp said his company’s dish was a lot smaller and didn’t have the same functions as the Parkes set-up made famous in the 2000 movie The Dish.

But the SA dish can use a change in frequency or pitch – called the Doppler signal – from the Orion craft to calculate its speed, providing key information for the mission.

“The sound of an emergency services vehicle’s siren is different when it comes towards you compared to when it’s going away from you,” Mr Damp told AAP on Thursday, explaining the signal.

“We can work out how fast the spacecraft is going exactly the same sort of way.”

The Doppler signal from the Orion spacecraft is sent to NASA through Southern Launch’s partners, Raven Defense, to help it fly to the moon.

Artemis II is conducting a crewed flight around the moon, testing critical systems ahead of future lunar landings.

“So it’s a very exciting day for us today, we’re supporting Artemis, which is absolutely inspiring to … an entire generation,” Mr Damp said.

“I didn’t grow up in a generation that went to the moon.

“But my kids are, and they are so excited about space … because humanity is taking these huge steps forward.”

NASA’s long term, multi-mission Artemis program aimed at returning humans to the moon provided a great opportunity for the Australian space industry, Flinders University’s Professor Rodrigo Praino said.

“They’re talking about landing on the moon by 2028 and using a base there as a stepping stone to go to Mars,” he told AAP.

Australia needed to develop strategies and create plans to contribute to the NASA program, he said.

“It’s a great opportunity for Australia … for anyone engaged in any sort of space technology and space infrastructure,” said Prof Praino, the Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies director.

Southern Launch, which also operates a second space port at SA’s Eyre Peninsula, has been launching experimental rockets for international customers for several years.

A key drug one of its customers is developing is for chemotherapy.

“The really cool thing is that these satellites manufacture pharmaceuticals while they’re on orbit, and they need somewhere special to land,” Mr Damp said.

“If you can make a more pure anti-cancer drug in space, suddenly, the quality of life for people who have to take these horrible, horrible chemicals is a lot better.”

SA was an ideal location because the landings required wide open, uninhabited spaces and very little air and maritime traffic.

For eight years, the company has been building relationships and working out ways the hi-tech, high-speed activities can occur while airlines are operating, Mr Damp said.

The operator of Australia’s stock exchange is promising further reform after copping more criticism from an independent probe commissioned by the corporate watchdog.

The final report of the three-member panel, led by Commonwealth Bank director Rob Whitfield, attacked ASX Ltd’s “insular and defensive culture”, saying it had underinvested in critical market infrastructure in favour of higher shareholder returns.

The report was commissioned by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in July 2025, after a number of embarrassing technical glitches at the bourse, including a full-day outage on November 16, 2020, and a settlement failure on December 20, 2024.

The panel’s interim report, delivered in December, was so damning that it led ASIC to force the ASX to hold another $150 million in reserve.

It agreed to reforms following that report, including appointing independent directors not part of ASX Ltd to the boards that govern four of its settlement and clearing functions.

The final report, based on over 140 stakeholder interviews, revealed details of some of the ASX’s technical issues but did not recommend any more specific reforms.

“A ‘laundry list’ approach of detailed recommendations for improvement has not previously served ASX or the market ecosystem well,” the report released on Thursday said.

The ASX had become overwhelmed after being subject to more than 120 reports examining aspects of its governance, capability, culture and risk management in the past five and a half years, the inquiry found.

ASX chairman David Clarke said the 88-page final report, like the 21-page interim report, was tough reading. 

“The panel … found a culture that had become defensive and insular, where we don’t spend enough time looking outward,” he said.

“This is not how we shape and steward the exchange of the future.”

The ASX on February 27 submitted a commitment plan to ASIC, outlining how it would deliver a strategic package of reforms.

Initiatives are underway to strengthen engagement between the ASX and its regulators, ASIC and the Reserve Bank, the report said.

The ASX is also hunting for a new chief executive after CEO Helen Lofthouse announced in February that she would leave in May.

The Australian Council of Superannuation Investors said in a statement that it would contact the ASX to urge a swift implementation of the actions outlined in the report.

“Australia’s superannuation members deserve strong governance at the top to support the long-term performance of their retirement savings,” the council said.

AS

Celebrities and sportspeople will no longer be allowed to promote gambling on TV, radio or online as part of a long-awaited and wide-ranging crackdown on betting ads.

An overhaul of the nation’s gambling ad laws will come into effect at the start of 2027, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on Thursday, aimed at minimising children’s exposure to gambling.

Under the changes, all gambling ads will be banned during live sport broadcasts shown on TV between 6am and 8.30pm.

When sport isn’t being shown, promotions will be limited to three an hour on TV during those hours.

Gambling ads will be banned on online platforms unless users have been verified to be over the age of 18. Platforms will need to allow users to opt out.

Players’ and officials’ uniforms will not be allowed to display the logos of gambling products and betting ads will be banned in sporting venues.

Radio stations will be banned from playing gambling ads during school pick-up and drop-off times.

The reforms would allow Australians to continue betting while reducing gambling harms, Mr Albanese told the National Press Club.

“We are getting the balance right,” he said.

“Letting adults have a punt if they want to, but making sure that our children don’t see betting ads everywhere they look.

“We don’t want kids growing up thinking that footy and gambling are inextricably linked.”

The reforms stem from a report published by the late Labor MP Peta Murphy in June 2023, which the government has yet to formally respond to.

Mr Albanese said a full response to the review would be tabled on parliament’s next sitting day, scheduled for May 12.

Australia’s share market has retreated from an early lead after US President Donald Trump signalled an end to the Iran conflict, although not before further escalations.

“We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” Mr Trump told Americans in a live national address.

“We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong.”

The S&P/ASX200 had drifted 0.55 per cent higher ahead of Mr Trump’s speech at noon on Thursday (AEDT), before reversing course when it became clear he wasn’t saying much that was new.

The top-200 had fallen 19.2 points by the end of the address at 12.20 AEDT, down 0.22 per cent, to 8,653.6, as the broader All Ordinaries lost 30.5 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 8,855.1.

The highly anticipated speech gave no real clarity on a US exit, although Mr Trump did indicate he would turn his back on US allies dependent on oil from the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait, a choke point for one fifth of global oil and 60 per cent of Asia’s oil supplies, has been effectively blockaded by Iran since the US and Israel began bombing the Islamic republic at the end of February.

“The countries of the world that do receive oil through the Strait of Hormuz, take care of that passage … lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on,” Mr Trump said.

Local energy stocks sold off ahead of Mr Trump’s address, but later recovered as Brent crude jumped from around $US100 a barrel to $US105.70 after midday.

Oil and gas giants Woodside and Santos were down more than five and three per cent, respectively, on Thursday morning, but narrowed their losses in Mr Trump’s wake.

Ampol and Viva Energy, which operate Australia’s two remaining fuel refineries, also made up ground.

Ahead of the speech, real estate stocks were outperforming the bourse, after tumbling more than 15 per cent since December following three Reserve Bank interest rate hikes in as many meetings.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese used a national address on Wednesday night to urge Australians to think of others when filling up their fuel tanks, but stopped short of signalling fuel rationing despite uncertainty around national supply from May.

Coal miners also sold off, while uranium stocks lacked a clear direction.

ASX-listed gold miners were hammered after a positive start, as the precious metal fell from above $US4,770 ($A6,926) an ounce to $US4,662.

Northern Star share slipped 0.2 per cent, after it said it was on track to achieve its twice-downgraded production guidance, while announcing an on market share buy-back of up to $500 million.

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to reshape its steel and aluminium tariffs regime, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The US would maintain a 50 per cent duty on commodity-grade products, while finished products made from imported steel or aluminium would attract a 25 per cent impost, it said.

Shares in aluminium producer Alcoa surged almost five per cent, while BlueScope Steel only managed a 0.3 per cent improvement to $26.47.

Australia’s heavyweight financials sector looked encouraging in early trade before fading to a 0.3 per cent boost as the big four banks’s leads shrunk.

Bourse operator ASX gained more than two per cent despite the corporate regulator’s final report into the group finding failures of governance and market systems.

“The market and the Australian public need resilient and reliable market infrastructure,” ASIC chair Joe Longo said.

“It is now firmly for ASX to ensure its transformation is successful and enduring.”

In other news, clothing and footwear company KMD Brands had more than half its market value wiped after lifting its trading halt after completing the institutional component of its emergency capital raise.

The Australian dollar was buying 68.89 US cents, down from 69.05 US cents on Wednesday at 5pm, after falling on the back of Mr Trump’s address.

Stocks inched higher, the dollar softened and oil slipped on Thursday as investors held their collective breath ahead of a speech from US President Donald Trump that could ‌outline the end of the war in the Middle East and boost risk appetite.

The prospect of the end to the ‌month-long US-Israel war with Iran has lifted global stocks and knocked the dollar off its recent highs in the past two ‌sessions after a brutal March where soaring oil prices sent risk assets on a tailspin.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was a tad higher in early trading after clocking its biggest one-day jump on Wednesday since November 2022. Japan’s Nikkei was poised for a strong start.

The United States will be “out of Iran pretty quickly” and could return for “spot hits” ‌if needed, Trump ‌told Reuters on Wednesday, ⁠ahead of his scheduled primetime address to the nation at 0100 GMT on ​Thursday.

Trump and his top officials have offered a variety of timelines for ending the war. He said on Tuesday that the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks.

Analysts and investors will analyse the speech to gauge when and how the Strait of Hormuz, a major fuel shipment route, would reopen and ease the bottleneck in supply ⁠that has hit Asian economies hard.

“A US exit within the next ‌few ​weeks would certainly remove one massive layer of tension,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

“However, it doesn’t automatically guarantee smooth ​sailing and energy ‌flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The Iranian response will be critical, particularly whether Tehran continues to leverage its ​geographical position by imposing tolls or selective inspections on passing tankers and strikes on its neighbouring countries’ energy infrastructure.”

Iran has fired repeatedly on Gulf countries, some home to US bases, and is using the Strait ​of ​Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global oil ​and liquefied natural gas, as leverage.

Higher energy prices in March ‌stoked fears of global inflation with worries about slowing growth also sapping sentiment.

The US dollar has been the haven of choice among investors during the tumult but the prospect of a ceasefire has led to the greenback weakening this week.

The euro last bought $US1.1591 ($A1.6695) in early trading, holding on to its recent gains. The Japanese yen was at 158.68 per US dollar, ​inching away from the crucial 160 level that traders worry could spur Tokyo to step in and intervene.

The ​front-month Brent contract for June ⁠fell 2.7 per cent, to settle at $US101.16 ($A145.70) per barrel, bouncing off a session low of $US98.35 ($A141.65).

Fishmongers are beginning to feel the nip from the fuel crisis, but they say customers planning their Good Friday feasts should not expect a wave of price rises – yet.

At the South Melbourne Markets, the last line of defence for rising fish prices, a spike in diesel costs for fishing trawlers are starting to flow through to fishmongers as the seafood rush begins for Easter.

Fish prices and transport costs had risen between 10 to 15 per cent since the fuel crisis began for South Melbourne Seafoods, director John Kyzintas said.

But customers should not expect to see a price hike when they go buy their fish, with the business wearing the increased costs.

“Fish is always a little bit more expensive at Easter time – supply and demand. The fuel costs so far haven’t really hit us yet,” Mr Kyzintas told AAP.

The squeeze point might arrive during winter when capture hauls fall to a quarter but the inclement weather means boats have to use twice as much fuel, he said.

But for Will Olver, the manager of Gem Pier Seafood, rising fuel costs have already started to bite.

Hailing from from a commercial fishing family, he said fuel expenses had jumped by as much as 50 per cent, leading to wholesale prices of some popular fish species to double.

“We can’t pass that price on to the customer. They just won’t pay it,” Mr Olver said.

“But the volumes have increased, the workload has increased, and the wages have increased.”

The fishmonger said his business had had to pivot to buying different species that were the same quality but cheaper.

“We’re making less money, sometimes no money,” he said.

The business, like many others, is holding off on purchasing in the wholesale market for as long as they can, hoping wholesalers will get nervous and bring prices down before Good Friday.

“Customers in a crisis like this go into conservative mode. They’re trying to hold on to as much wealth as they can themselves,” Mr Olver said.

He has noticed customers pivoting away from more high end products to lower value products by as much as 30 per cent.

It comes as Australia’s largest wild-caught prawn operation, A Raptis & Sons Group, announced its closure after six decades due to an oversupply of prawns in 2022/23, lower catch volumes and growing costs.

The new Sydney Fish Market is anticipating a healthy 60,000 visitors to walk through on Good Friday for their seafood hit.

Fuel prices skyrocketed after a US-led war on Iran disrupted shipping through one of the world’s biggest oil corridors.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has confidentially filed for a US initial public offering, a person familiar with the matter has told Reuters, setting the stage for what could become the largest ‌stock market listing on record.

A public listing at a potential valuation of more than $US1.75 trillion ($A2.52 trillion) would signal that space exploration has moved from a speculative venture to a mainstream investment theme.

SpaceX’s growth has been driven by its reusable rockets and the Starlink satellite internet ‌network.

The filing comes after SpaceX merged with Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI in a deal that valued the rocket company at $US1 trillion and the developer of the Grok chatbot at $US250 billion.

SpaceX is hosting an analyst day on April 21, encouraging research analysts to attend in ‌person, according to a person familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information.

The company is also offering analysts an optional visit to xAI’s “Macrohard” data centre site in Memphis, Tennessee, on April 23, and plans to hold a virtual session on May 4 to discuss financial models with banks, where banking teams are invited to participate, the source said.

Musk, the world’s richest person, runs a sprawling business empire that spans electric vehicles, space and satellite ventures, AI and social media.

“Investors could use a sum-of-the-parts analysis but, like with Tesla, SpaceX’s valuation could very much fluctuate wildly based off how much the public believes in Musk’s vision,” said Angelo Bochanis, data and index associate at Renaissance Capital, a provider of IPO-focused research and ETFs.

“So far, investors seem to be clamouring for any ‌sort of exposure to SpaceX.”

SpaceX did ‌not immediately respond to a Reuters request ⁠for comment.

The Starbase, Texas-headquartered firm could seek to raise more than $US50 billion in the IPO, handily surpassing the 2019 flotation of Saudi Aramco, which remains the ​largest IPO on record.

A blockbuster SpaceX debut could jolt the IPO market back to life after years of subdued activity, with market participants expecting strong demand from both retail and institutional investors, some drawn by Musk’s brand and others seeking exposure to SpaceX’s fast-growing space and satellite businesses.

SpaceX is the world’s most valuable privately held company, based on the valuation implied by its merger deal with xAI.

The rocket startup was last valued at about $US800 billion in a secondary share sale independently.

Several other high-profile startups, including ChatGPT maker OpenAI and rival Anthropic, are also said to be weighing large IPOs, setting up a broader test of investor appetite for new listings.

Many large startups have remained private for longer, tapping deep pools of capital in private markets, but a listing by a company such as SpaceX could encourage more ⁠of them to pursue public offerings.

Bloomberg News first reported on the confidential filing earlier on Wednesday.

A confidential filing allows a company to submit ‌IPO documents to regulators privately, giving it ​time to address feedback and refine disclosures away from public scrutiny.

Truckies, fuel suppliers and fertiliser producers will be among businesses able to get interest-free loans from the federal government to lessen the impact of the war in the Middle East.

In an address to the National Press Club on Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will announce businesses affected by the fuel supply crisis can access the low-cost loans within a fortnight.

The loans will be distributed as part of the government’s existing $1 billion economic resilience program in the National Reconstruction Fund.

Mr Albanese will say the loans will be critical to getting not just the businesses, but the wider economy, through the crisis caused by the fuel shocks.

“No government can promise to eliminate the pressures this crisis will impose, but we will be a buffer against the worst of it, a shock absorber in a time of global shocks,” he will say.

“We will do everything we can to protect the Australian people from what the world throws at us.”

The speech will be delivered a day after the prime minister gave an address to the nation across all TV and radio platforms about steps taken to lessen the impacts of the fuel crisis.

It is expected to detail Australia’s stance on the Middle East conflict and fuel security measures, while also emphasising economic sovereignty and securing global supply chains.

“Providing this stability and security amidst uncertainty does not mean standing still while the world changes around us. It means anticipating and creating change, true to Australian values and in Australia’s interests,” he will say.

“If people feel like the economy is not working for them, if they’re putting in the effort but not seeing the reward, if planning for the future feels like a luxury, then government cannot provide stability, just by keeping things as they are.

“There is not security in maintaining a status quo that doesn’t work for people.”

The situation in the Middle East and the inflationary challenges it has caused will cast a shadow over May’s federal budget, as the fallout from spikes in petrol prices continue.

The prime minister will say a balance will need to be struck in the budget between making the country more resilient, as well as providing cost-of-living relief.

“It is our government’s most important budget to date, and it will be our most ambitious. It has to be,” he will say.

“The scale of the challenge facing us, and the breadth of opportunities ahead of us, demand that ambition and that urgency.”

Australians will get through coming bumpy months of the global oil crisis by working together, the prime minister says, but one expert fears his rare televised address could stoke panic in the community.

In a speech broadcast on all major television and radio networks, Anthony Albanese urged Australians to look out for one another, warning there may be difficult times ahead.

He urged people to consider getting public transport to work instead of driving in a bid to preserve the nation’s fuel reserves, and told motorists heading on road trips over Easter to only take as much petrol and diesel as they needed.

“That builds our reserves and it saves fuel for people who have no choice but to drive: farmers and miners and tradies who need diesel, every single day,” Mr Albanese said.

“These are uncertain times. But I am absolutely sure of this. We will deal with these global challenges the Australian way: working together, and looking after each other.”

While intended to calm Australians’ nerves as the Middle East oil crisis worsens, the address could have the opposite effect, former Liberal adviser Tony Barry told AAP.

Mr Albanese currently has a negative 17 favourability rating according to Mr Barry’s firm Redbridge, well behind opposition leader Angus Taylor and One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.

The pollster said giving an address to the nation with such a low approval rating was a recipe for disaster.

“Standing up and telling everybody not to panic is a sure way to make everybody panic,” Mr Barry told AAP.

“People are observing that going to the petrol station is now like a scene from Mad Max.

“They’ll be expecting solutions from the government,” he said.

The decision to cut the fuel excise but then tell motorists to consider avoiding unnecessary petrol and diesel use was also politically flawed, Mr Barry said.

“He’s reduced the price of petrol, and now he’s telling people don’t buy this cheaper petrol.”

US President Donald Trump will deliver a major address about the Middle East war on Thursday (AEDT).

As Mr Albanese prepared to address the nation, Western Australia’s government activated emergency powers, allowing it to force the fuel industry to share information about its supply chains.

The move will allow the state government to demand specific details about where fuel is and where it’s needed, in a bid to alleviate shortages in some areas.

The change is not the same as declaring a state of emergency as was done during the pandemic, Premier Roger Cook said, but was rather targeted specifically at the fuel industry.

“Unfortunately our efforts are being hampered by not having full visibility of the fuel supply chain,” he told reporters in Perth on Wednesday.

“In some cases we don’t know where fuel is or where it will go.”

Federal opposition leader Angus Taylor said more transparency about the availability of fuel was needed to allay Australians’ fears of ongoing shortages.

“This was a rerun of Monday’s press conference and it didn’t give us the detail we need,” he told Seven News on Wednesday night.

“(The government) needs to update us daily on what the situation is,” Mr Taylor said.