Whoever wins the White House this week will have a testy former military general in Southeast Asia upsetting cosy international security notions of who likes who and how things are done. Duncan Graham reports from neighbouring Indonesia.
Prabowo Subianto has been Indonesia’s eighth president only since October 20 but is already stirring established orders in defence and economics that will force the Anglosphere to rethink its own alliances – and attitudes.
This he can do with some clout. Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous nation with more Muslims than any other state. It is pro-Palestine, anti-Israel, and currently sliding red-wards. If the US were not preoccupied with domestic politics right now, Washington could be alarmed at this slippage.
The Russians are coming
Also this week, a slice of the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet took advantage of the distraction to dock in Surabaya, Indonesia’s second-biggest city and the capital of East Java. The ships are normally based in Fokino, close to Vladivostok.
The visit isn’t huge – three corvettes, a medium tanker, a chopper and a tug – but the timing is significant. The Indonesian Navy has 25 corvettes, and some will be ‘exercising’ with the Russians.
Corvettes are the smallest warship, normally up to 3,000 tonnes, and mostly used in cramped quarters. They’re said to be ideal for the shallow waters of the Indonesian archipelago – the world’s largest splashed with 17,000 islands, though not all settled.
Australia stopped using corvettes last century but is now reported to be considering their reintroduction. They’re bigger and supposed to be more flexible than patrol boats.
Prabowo wasn’t dockside to greet the Russians – his appointment was with another socialist state to which his country is greatly indebted for loans and business – China.
Australian military exercises
Australians are also playing with the big boys. In Java, along with Russians swabbing decks in Surabaya, are slouch hats filling magazines in jungle training camps. They’re involved in what’s claimed to be the largest joint military exercise between the neighbours in recent history involving air, sea and land ops.
Getting buckled and kitted has been a bit of a rushed job. The games with guns follow a defence cooperation agreement signed in August between Defence Minister Richard Marles and his then counterpart Prabowo.
When is a treaty not a treaty? The Marles and Prabowo Canberra love-in.
The fancy name dreamed up by military PR for the exercise is Keris Woomera. It’s been mangled by monolingual journos or AI into Chris Woomera who probably runs a pub in the SA outback.
A keris is the traditional wavy-blade Javanese dagger widely believed to be impregnated with magic.
It’s not the first time Diggers have been in Java. In the past few weeks, the island has looked more like a conflict zone with the 11-day US-Indonesia Super Garuda Shield exercise that rolled into September “highlighting the strength of international partnerships and the importance of joint operational readiness”.
Garuda is an eagle with human features that rescued Vishnu, a god in the trinity of Hinduism.
China hovering
China’s involvement in bilateral military exercises with Indonesia stopped in 2015 after navigation rights disputes in what Indonesia calls the North Natuna Sea; Beijing reckons it’s the South China Sea.
However, this year, an agreement was signed at the senior officer level to resume joint military exercises maybe in 2025.
Japan, Singapore, the UK, Australia, Canada, France, Brazil, Brunei, India, South Korea, NZ and Thailand were at the joint Super Garuda Shield military exercises (SGS) in August this year, taking notes about shells being lobbed into sand dunes. Whether these will be of any use if nuclear-armed North Korea ups its threats and fires ICBMs at the Great Satan is another worry.
The document leading to Keris Woomera has been lauded by Marles as “the most significant defence agreement in the history of our two countries.
As one of our closest neighbours, Australia’s relationship with Indonesia is essential to our nation’s security and prosperity.
We say much the same thing about the faraway US.
Marles was getting ahead of himself, his exuberance hosed down by Prabowo, stressing his Republic makes no defence deals with foreigners.
Is Indonesia’s non-aligned status changing?
At his inauguration in October, Prabowo said:
The Indonesian government has chosen a free and active path. It will remain non-aligned and will not be a party to any military pact.
Marles’ document / treaty / pact / deal / agreement / partnership (the language squirms) has yet to be released, so we don’t know what concessions have been made to satisfy the conflicting views of the two parties.
What is important is that Prabowo’s first foreign handshake won’t be with Down Under polis but with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. He’ll then fly to the US ostensibly to meet Joe Biden but clearly to check his successor – though the trip may be postponed if Washington faces riots by voters outraged at the result.
Next stop South America and it’s here that trade gets pally with defence. Indonesia’s new Foreign Affairs Minister Sugiono has said his country wants to join the BRICS economic alliance initiated by Russia 15 years ago.
The previous administration had the same idea but pushed it aside with a yawn. Prabowo is kicking it awake, following the policies of first President Soekarno, who separated world powers into OLDEFO (Old Established Forces) and NEFO (Newly Emerging Forces).
Joining the BRICS with mortar?
BRICS started as a group of “emerging economies” – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – hence the acronym. Later came Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to make BRICS Plus,
Readers will have noticed the absence of nations that prefer the much older Group of Seven (G7), an “intergovernmental and economic forum” of Canada, France, Germany Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. The European Union is a “non-enumerated member”.
It’s organised around shared values of “pluralism, liberal democracy and representative government”. These moral principles appear absent among some BRICS Plus members.
According to UK-educated Indonesian international relations expert Professor Ayu Anastasya Rachman, BRICS “aims to promote South-South cooperation.”
Unlike the G7, which wants to maintain its global influence through the IMF and the World Bank, “BRICS focuses on creating a multipolar system to reduce dependence on the US dollar – or what is known as de-dollarisation efforts. By joining BRICS Plus, Indonesia can participate in efforts to reduce dependence on these Western-oriented financial institutions.”
Should we be worried? If hanging around for instructions from Washington, the wait is likely to be long. Do we have a contingency plan for the Prabowo New Order? Watch this vacuum.
BRICS and Bats: the global world order is changing, but who would know?
Duncan Graham has a Walkley Award, two Human Rights Commission awards and other prizes for his radio, TV and print journalism in Australia. He now lives in Indonesia.