There’s a live debate running on building nuclear power stations. But when it comes to the danger of nuclear war, there’s deadly silence. Rex Patrick and Philip Dorling report on a disturbing FOI that confirms that silence.
Indo-Pacific Geopolitics
Australia’s geo-strategic situation is changing rapidly. The Government’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review wasn’t shy in laying out the big concern, highlighting that “China’s military build-up in is now the second largest and most ambitious of any country since the end of the Second World War”.
The Strategic Review went on to say “This build-up is occurring without transparency or reassurance to the Indo-Pacific region of China’s strategic intent. China’s assertion of sovereignty over the South China Sea threatens the global rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific in a way that adversely impacts Australia’s national interests.”
The Strategic Review did not draw attention to a potential China-Taiwan conflict, but that’s unquestionably the big risk driving the current and planned US military build-up in Australia.
Now hold that thought.
China’s Nuclear Weapons Build-up
As China builds its conventional forces, it’s also doing the same for its nuclear arsenal. For a long time China maintained a small strategic nuclear force – essentially a minimum deterrent. But that’s now changing. The most recent US Department of Defense report to Congress on the state of China’s military capabilities spells out the situation.
China is expanding the number of its land, sea, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms while investing in and constructing infrastructure necessary to support further expansion of its nuclear forces.
It’s estimated that China possesses more than 500 operational nuclear warheads. It completed at least 300 new Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos, and has loaded at least some ICBMs into these silos. It also has fielded longer-range JL-3 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles on its JIN class ballistic missile submarines, which are capable of hitting the continental United States from their waters.
China will probably have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.
Risk for Australia
All of this involves risk for Australia.
As a starting point it’s worth saying; there are no winners in a nuclear war. That does not mean that nuclear war is not a possibility.
There’s some chance that China will, as Russia has done in with Ukraine, embark on a military operation against Taiwan. Such a conflict might be localised. Beijing would prefer that, but the risk of escalation and expansion would be high. It’s not inconceivable China could threaten use of nuclear weapons in the context of a China – Taiwan – US conflict.
In a worst case scenario, the question the leadership in Beijing could send through the hotline to Washington might be, “Madam President, what’s more important to you, Honolulu, Seattle or Taipei?”
High priority targets for China would almost certainly include Pine Gap […and] North West Cape.
If nuclear weapons are exchanged, Australia would not be immune in terms of Chinese targeting, especially as the number of weapons available for targeting grows. Indeed, it may even be the case that the question to the US President might be “Look what we have shown we’re prepared to do, look to the weapons we have detonated in Australia.”
High priority targets for China would almost certainly include the Joint Defence Intelligence Facility at Pine Gap near Alice Springs and the very low-frequency US submarine communication facility at North West Cape. That’s not new, these were undoubtedly Russian targets in the Cold War and are probably still on Moscow’s list.
However, the Chinese are likely to also look at an expanded target set covering US and Australian war-fighting capabilities that could project power into the South China Sea, around Taiwan or elsewhere in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
This will likely include HMAS Stirling (US and UK nuclear submarines) near Perth, Darwin (RAAF Darwin, fuel storage facilities and the US Marine detachment), RAAF Tindal (US B-52 Bombers) and new US logistic storage facilities in Victoria and Queensland.
The Australian Defence Force headquarters at Bungendore near Canberra is another possibility.
As the Chinese strategic arsenal expands further, other major transportation and communications facilities as well as Australian cities could also come into the picture.
When the Bomb Hits
Today’s nuclear weapons are vastly more powerful than those that destroyed the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki nearly 80 years ago.
If a Chinese DF-31 ICBM delivers a 1MT nuclear payload on HMAS Stirling, life for many Western Australians will end or else be changed forever.
Detonation HMAS Stirling (Source: Nukemap)
The immediate flash of light and heat would be so tremendous it is impossible for anyone to imagine. The temperature at ground zero will be 180 million degrees, 5 times hotter than the centre of the sun. Anyone in Fremantle unlucky enough to be looking south west would be instantly blinded.
Within the first couple of seconds a fireball of 1.4 km in diameter will have obliterated the entire naval base. Metal objects will have melted and concrete would have exploded. Every man and woman on the naval base will have converted into carbon. The injured will envy them.
Everything outside the fireball range will burst into flames; clothes, books, wooden fences and trees. Almost all humans will suffer third degree burns, with specialist burns beds in Fremantle and Perth being almost instantly overwhelmed with any immediate casualties that can get to them.
Rockingham and the coastal areas north to Fremantle will suffer a high-pressure wave that will mow people down, burst ear drums and collapse buildings. The industrial plants at Kwinana will be devastated with collapsing structures, rupturing of pipes, and fire. Those surprised by the pressure wave will be equally surprised by the reverse suction effect.
In total, 1,210 souls will die and 20,220 will be injured.
After about 35 seconds the mushroom cloud will have formed and after 60 seconds will be well on its journey towards the troposphere. On the ground a firestorm will rage across the suburban landscape. Over the next hour or two the cloud will drift with the assistance of the ‘Fremantle doctor’ over Perth in the coming hours, raining radioactive debris and dust.
Radioactive Fallout HMAS Stirling (Source: Nukemap)
Most people in the initial thermal radiation area will die over the first few days. Those that manage to stay alive will be alone and trapped in self-survival mode. There will be no mobile phone coverage and no internet and little food or water. There will be no first responders.
Continuity
If the United States is subject to nuclear attack, there is a ‘continuity of government’ plan and a separate ‘continuity of operations’ plan.
The first is a protocol of how command and control is maintained for the US armed forces and government agencies; with much effort put into ensuring effective succession from the President to the Vice President to the Speaker of the House of Representatives etc if required.
The second is how to keep the key elements of the country working.
The United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) exists to deal with ‘continuity of operations’ in the event of hurricanes, fires, floods and nuclear attack.
Australian Response
Australia does have a continuity of Government plan?
Historically previous Governments have discussed the plan publicly. Prime Minister John Howard was quite open about the necessity for such planning and preparations which in their post-Cold War iteration date back to 2004. Howard answered parliamentary questions on the subject.
However, it’s a rather different story with the current Government. In a response to a recent FOI request for information relating to continuity of government planning, the Government answered saying they would “neither confirm nor deny” the existence of any such plan.
Continuity of Government Answers (Source; FOI to PMC)
The plan does exist. The Government is being unnecessarily secretive about that fact if not the details of the plan. This secrecy is now subject to challenge.
Of course, it might also be the case that the plan is out of date. It might be the case that the Government hasn’t been attentive to Australia’s strategic environment
One thing’s clear, there’s no work underway on how Australia, as a nation, might deal with a nuclear attack, even a single strike on one target.
In a separate FOI to our National Emergency Management Agency (Australia’s equivalent of FEMA) to see what studies or planning they might be doing in the way of preparation for the low probability but extremely high consequence scenario of a nuclear strike. The answer was pretty disturbing. They have done no work in this space.
Nuclear Weapon Response Planning (Source: FOI to NEMA)
Not Prepared, not thinking about possible consequences
Whether you support AUKUS, or don’t – whether you support the increasing presence of the US military in Australia, or don’t – we should have a fully informed debate. We should be fully aware of the possible consequences of the choices that have been made and be prepared for it.
We haven’t had that properly informed debate, and the Government hasn’t even started to consider preparations for contingencies.
That’s a profound failure that ought to cause people to stop and think.
Washington Syndrome: Australia’s sovereignty sell-out hidden in plain sight
Declaration: Rex Patrick is an SA Senate candidate for the Jacqui Lambie Network
Rex Patrick is a former Senator for South Australia and earlier a submariner in the armed forces. Best known as an anti-corruption and transparency crusader - www.transparencywarrior.com.au.
Philip Dorling has some thirty years of experience of high-level political, public policy and media work, much of that at the Australian Parliament.
He has worked in the Australian political environment from most angles, in both the national and state levels of government including as a senior executive; as a senior policy adviser for the Federal Labor Opposition and for cross bench Senators; and as an award-winning journalist in the Federal Parliamentary Press Gallery.