Banks, miners the winners of a resilient earning season

Banks, miners the winners of a resilient earning season

Australian corporations are back in the winner’s circle.

With the big banks, goldminers and critical minerals leading the way, local companies have delivered strong earnings this reporting season.

Nearly half all companies bettered expectations and the ratio of beats to misses was the best since 2021, according to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver.

“We’ve had in Australia three years in a row of falling listed company earnings and finally we’ve got a return to profit growth,” Dr Oliver said.

Two-thirds of companies increased their earnings from a year ago and 56 per cent raised their dividend, usually a sign their earnings would continue to rise, he said.

“So overall … it was a pretty good reporting season.”

IG market analyst Hebe Chen broadly agrees.

The overarching takeaway wasn’t necessarily explosive growth but institutional durability, he told AAP.

“Margins held, balance sheets remained fortress-like and guidance, while appropriately cautious, steered clear of the aggressive downgrades that typically cap market rallies.”

The results reinforce the growing conviction Australia’s economy is absorbing the twin pressures of inflation and restrictive rates far better than initially anticipated, Ms Chen said.

The undisputed outperformer of the half was the banking sector, Ms Chen said.

Commonwealth Bank and NAB showed resilient net interest margin, a key measure of a bank’s profitability, along with disciplined cost hygiene and steady loan books.

Those fundamentals not only justified their premium valuation but turned the sector into a magnet for defensive capital flows, she said.

Signage of Australia's 'big four' banks
The big four banks are among the companies leading a home-grown revival. (Joel Carrett/AAP PHOTOS)

“We have all been stunned by the big four banks this earnings season,” said VanEck cross-asset investment strategist Anna Wu, noting CBA’s shares rose as high as eight per cent on the day it reported earnings.

Banks’ valuations are stretched but interest rate hikes are boosting their margin potentials, Ms Wu said.

Australia’s economy is also proving resilient and loan arrears are dropping.

“I think all of these play into a good short-term outlook for banks,” she said.

VanEck believes 2026 will be a good year for Australia’s banks before their valuations become an issue in 2027.

Mining companies also did very well this earning season, mostly on the back of higher commodity prices.

“Gold and critical minerals are two of the probably most talked about buzzwords towards the end of last year and heading into this year,” Ms Wu noted.

Gold was changing hands at $US5,135 an ounce on Friday, up around 75 per cent from a year ago, while critical minerals like rare earths, lithium and copper have been surging.

Dr Oliver said mining companies got a boost in 2022 from the Ukraine war but had had some rough years since.

Mining trucks (file)
Mining companies have done very well on the back of higher commodity prices. (Alan Porritt/AAP PHOTOS)

“Mining company profits have gone from about minus 17 per cent a year ago to plus 33 per cent, to a big turnaround there,” he said.

Ms Wu said unlike in the financial sector, materials companies are still trading at a very reasonable valuation level.

She and VanEck colleague, senior portfolio manager Cameron McCormack, said the fund manager was a fan of materials and select industrial companies.

The biggest holding in its actively managed exchange traded fund, known by its ticker symbol ALFA, is actually Telstra Group, in part because it is a “very, very strong operator in the Australian market” with strong pricing power, Mr McCormack said.

Telstra shares performed strongly during reporting season, he noted.

On the flip side, consumer discretionary companies did not fare as well, with Wesfarmers, Harvey Norman and Flight Centre slipping on the back of results.

Ms Chen said consumer-facing names were bearing the brunt of macro headwinds, with discretionary retailers and travel-linked stocks flagging softening demand and margin compression.

“This divergence highlights a clear squeeze,” Ms Chen said.

“While the corporate engines are humming, the Australian consumer is finally starting to feel the weight of elevated living costs.”

US unemployment rate ticks higher to 4.4 per cent

US unemployment rate ticks higher to 4.4 per cent

US employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs last month in a sign that the labour market remains under strain.

The unemployment rate blipped up to 4.4 per cent.

The US Labor Department reported on Friday that hiring deteriorated from January, when companies, non-profits and government agencies added a healthy 126,000 jobs.

Economists had expected 60,000 new jobs in February.

Revisions also cut 69,000 jobs from December and January payrolls.

The job market had been expected to rebound this year from a lacklustre 2025 when the economy, buffeted by US President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff policies and the lingering effects of high interest rates, generated just 15,000 jobs a month. 

And January hiring had come in above expectations. 

“Just when it looked like the labour market was stabilising, this report delivers a knock-down blow to that view,” said Olu Sonola, head of US economics at Fitch Ratings. 

“It’s bad news whichever way you look at it.”

The job losses were widespread. 

Construction companies cut 11,000 jobs last month, which likely reflects reflect frigid weather. 

Healthcare firms shed 28,000 jobs after a four-week strike by more than 30,000 nurses and other front-line workers at Kaiser Permanente in California and Hawaii. 

Healthcare has been one of the US job market’s strong points.

Factories cut 12,000 jobs and have lost jobs for 14 of the last 15 months.

Restaurants and bars lost nearly 30,000 jobs.

Administrative and support services firms lost nearly 19,000 jobs and courier and messenger services almost 17,000.

Financial firms added 10,000 jobs although job cuts continue to hit that sector as well this year. 

Average hourly wages rose 0.4 per cent from January and 3.8 per cent from a year earlier.

Hiring continues to lag far behind the hiring boom of 2021-2023 when the economy was bouncing back from pandemic lockdowns and the United States was adding nearly 400,000 jobs a month.

Many economists describe today’s job market as “no-hire, no-fire”: companies are reluctant to add workers but do not want to let go of the ones they have.

Luckily, achieving good-enough job growth is easier these days.

Until a year or two ago, employers needed to hire more than 100,000 people a month to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

But Baby Boomer retirements and the administration’s deportations mean there are fewer people competing for work. 

So the break-even point is much lower – anywhere from zero to 50,000 jobs a month, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM.

“Under the current conditions, 70,000 should be considered solid,” he said.

Companies may be holding off on hiring as they buy, install and figure out how best to use new technologies, including artificial intelligence.

AI, after all, potentially means they “can do more with less'” and will need fewer workers, especially for entry-level positions, Brusuelas said.

They are thinking, he said, “we’ve invested an awful lot of money in (capital expenditures), and we need to see how much we can produce with our current labour force … The last thing you want to do is hire a lot of young people and then let them go”.

Axel Springer to buy publisher of UK Daily Telegraph

Axel Springer to buy publisher of UK Daily Telegraph

German media group Axel Springer has agreed to buy the owner of the Daily Telegraph newspaper in the United Kingdom, the companies say.

The 575 million pounds ($A1.1 billion) agreement ends a long saga over ownership of the Telegraph Media Group, which publishes the 171-year-old Daily Telegraph and its Sunday sister paper.

Axel Springer said it will invest in the group “to enable it to become the leading centre-right media outlet in the English-speaking world”.

“More than 20 years ago, we tried to acquire The Telegraph and did not succeed. Now our dream comes true,” Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner said.

The German company owns titles including the popular Bild tabloid and Welt newspaper as well as Business Insider and Politico.

“The Telegraph stands for freedom, personal responsibility, democratic values and a belief in open societies and market economies. These convictions closely align with our Axel Springer essential values,” Döpfner said.

The agreement follows years of uncertainty over the papers’ future and scuttles a rival bid by the owner of the Daily Mail to buy the Telegraph titles.

The Telegraph group, previously owned by the Barclay family, was put up for sale in 2023 to help pay off the family’s debts. 

There was an offer to buy the publications from RedBird IMI, a consortium backed by RedBird Capital Partners and Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabi’s royal family and the vice president of the United Arab Emirates.

The consortium pulled out in 2024 following strong opposition from the UK government, which launched legislation to block foreign state ownership of the local press.

with DPA

Beyond Meat beefs down name as it expands product range

Beyond Meat beefs down name as it expands product range

Beyond Meat is dropping “meat” from its name as it moves beyond the struggling market for plant-based burgers, sausages and tenders and expands into new categories such as protein drinks.

The company, rebranded as Beyond The Plant Protein Co — or simply Beyond on its packaging — changed its website and social media channels this week.

Beyond introduced its first beverage, a sparkling protein drink called Beyond Immerse, in January and plans to release a protein bar this summer.

The refresh could be critical for the brand. US sales of plant-based alternatives to meat are flagging and have dragged Beyond down with them.

The company’s net revenue dropped 14 per cent in the first nine months of 2025. Its shares have been trading below $US1 ($A1.40) since the start of 2026.

“For me, it is an opportunity to reshape the company around very real food that is directly from plants,” said Beyond president and CEO Ethan Brown, who founded the company in 2009.

“It’s about delivering all those benefits of the plant kingdom to the consumer in ways that they’re going to be able to easily integrate it into their lives.”

Beyond is not the only vegan food company making a pivot. Consumer demand for protein is skyrocketing, and several companies are scrambling to serve up more plant-based options.

Beyond Immerse cans
Beyond has introduced its first beverage, a sparkling protein drink called Beyond Immerse. (AP PHOTO)

Chris Costagli, a food thought leader at NIQ, said plant-based brands had struggled as customers scrutinised labels and found unfamiliar ingredients, added sugars or high sodium content.

After peaking in 2020, US retail sales of plant-based meat have plummeted, falling 26 per cent over the past two years, according to NIQ.

“There’s a lot of fillers and gums and texturisers and things that give those products a more familiar feel,” Costagli said.

“I think as people have been paying closer and closer attention to what they’re actually ingesting, it’s causing some products to stumble.”

Costagli said reformulating products to make them simpler and healthier has helped some brands in the plant-based dairy market. He thinks new products and recipes could also boost plant-based meats.

Packages of Beyond Burgers and Beyond Sausage
Beyond’s net revenue dropped 14 per cent in the first nine months of 2025. (AP PHOTO)

That’s what Beyond is betting. In 2024, it revamped its flagship burger to make it healthier. It introduced Beyond Ground, which contains just four ingredients – faba bean protein, potato protein, psyllium husk and water – and doesn’t have the word “meat” on its packaging.

California-based Beyond would continue to make plant-based burgers, chicken and other products designed to mimic meat, Brown said.

They remain popular in Europe, where Beyond’s burgers and nuggets are found on McDonald’s menus.

Brown still believes plant-based meat will be a “much more dominant choice” over the next decade or two, but the company has to navigate what he calls “a period of confusion.”

“It’s just not the moment for plant-based meat right now,” he said.

Australia’s ban on Islamist group ‘comes at a cost’

Australia’s ban on Islamist group ‘comes at a cost’

Australia has banned controversial Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir under laws introduced after the Bondi massacre, but terrorism experts warn the move could drive members underground.

The organisation was listed as a prohibited hate group late on Thursday in the first use of the tough powers, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke announced.

“There’s a general acceptance from Australians that there is a level of hatred and dehumanising language that does provide a pathway for violence, even if it’s not using the word violence,” he told ABC radio on Friday.

It is now a crime to be a member of Hizb ut-Tahrir, to recruit for it, or to provide training, funds or support to the group.

Hate group banned
Tony Burke announced Hizb ut-Tahrir has been listed as a prohibited hate group. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS)

The hate crime laws were pushed through after the December 14 terrorist attack on a Jewish festival at Bondi Beach, which killed 15 people and left more than 40 wounded.

Other countries that have banned Hizb ut-Tahrir include a number of Muslim-majority nations such as Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The group rejects democracy and secularism and calls for the establishment of an “Islamic state”.

Terrorism researcher Levi West said Hizb ut-Tahrir’s listing could drive members underground.

“It’s a double-edged sword,” he told AAP.

“The upside is the listing constrains the group’s behaviour, but it comes at a cost as well.”

Opposition home affairs spokesman Jonno Duniam
Hizb ut-Tahrir should have been shut down a long time ago, the opposition’s Jonno Duniam says. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS)

Dr West, a research fellow at the Australian National University, said the listing did not address concerns there were a number of people who believed in the ideas that Hizb ut-Tahrir advocated.

“Responding to extremism is a difficult, complex challenge,” he said.

Opposition home affairs spokesman Jonno Duniam accused Labor of “inaction” in its response to extremism.

“Hizb ut-Tahrir have advocated some of the most appalling and disgusting approaches to how society should work, and have done this in our suburbs with impunity,” he said.

“They should have been shut down a long time ago.”

Australia’s gun rules were also tightened under the government’s response to tackling anti-Semitism.

When the powers were legislated, the Albanese government indicated it planned to ban Hizb ut-Tahrir and neo-Nazis that were part of the National Socialist Network.

Tributes outside the Bondi Pavilion after a terrorist attack
A Jewish group said listing Hizb ut-Tahrir was “an important and necessary step”. (Dean Lewins/AAP PHOTOS)

The National Socialist Network disbanded the day before the laws came into effect to avoid falling foul of them.

Welcoming the decision, the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council said the listing “is an important and necessary step in confronting the spread of extremist ideology that threatens social cohesion, public safety and the fundamental values of Australian society”.

Mr Burke said Australia had only previously been able to ban groups if they went all the way in calling for violence and satisfied the definition of being a terrorist organisation.

ASIO director-general Mike Burgess previously said the two groups were falling just short of the definitions, but believed they were a real risk in providing a pathway to violence.

Troubled smelter faces shutdown move by regulator

Troubled smelter faces shutdown move by regulator

Australia’s only manganese alloy smelter could be shut down by the corporate regulator, after it filed legal action over the company’s failure to lodge annual financial reports. 

Liberty Bell Bay, in Tasmania’s north, has been sitting idle since May when it paused operations due to ore supply issues and global price volatility.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission on Friday announced it had filed an application with the NSW Supreme Court to wind up the smelter.

It says Liberty Bell Bay, which has roughly 250 workers on its books, failed to lodge annual reports with ASIC for the financial years ending in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. 

ASIC says Liberty Bell Bay, owned by GFG Alliance which is headed by British businessman Sanjeev Gupta, failed to comply with a court order to lodge reports for 2024/25. 

“ASIC has now applied to wind up Liberty Bell Bay on just and equitable grounds,” it said in a statement. 

“It is important that annual reports are lodged in a timely manner to assist creditors and other users of the annual reports in making informed decisions when dealing with large companies.”

GFG Alliance and the federal government have been contacted for comment. 

In August, Tasmania’s government loaned Liberty Bell Bay $20 million to purchase ore with the goal of resuming operations.

When operations didn’t restart, the government in January appointed receivers and managers to protect the ore stockpile, accusing the company of breaching loan arrangements.

Liberty Bell Bay
The Liberty Bell Bay smelter in Tasmania has sat idle since May last year. (Ethan James/AAP PHOTOS)

Business, Industry and Resources Minister Felix Ellis said the ASIC news would be challenging for workers, their families and the wider community.

“GFG has failed to deliver on its promises to Tasmanians and to its workers to restart operations,” he said.

“To the workers and their families: we are in your corner.

“We will continue to work closely with the receivers, workforce and the community throughout this process.”

GFG Alliance in November said it had signed a memorandum of understanding with a Georgian company, Steel International Trading Company, to operate the smelter for up to five years. 

Gupta has faced troubles elsewhere in Australia. He previously ran the Whyalla steelworks in South Australia and Tahmoor Coal in NSW, which are both under administration. 

‘Gerrymander’: teal backer takes aim at donations cap

‘Gerrymander’: teal backer takes aim at donations cap

Crowdfunded political campaigns should not be subject to donation caps in order to level the playing field and stop the “financial gerrymandering” of elections, a major teal independent backer has urged.

Appearing before a parliamentary inquiry into the 2025 federal election, Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court criticised political donation reforms that he said entrenched the status of major parties.

Under the reforms, which passed in 2025, donations are capped at $50,000 per donor to a party branch or candidate.

Holmes a Court and Labor national secretary Paul Erickson
Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court made his case at a hearing into the 2025 federal election. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

However, major parties are able to access $450,000 because parties are able to access $50,000 donations from the eight state and territory branches and the federal division.

Mr Holmes a Court said this put independent campaigns at a significant disadvantage compared with the major parties.

“This new financial gerrymander may throw a much-needed lifeline to the duopoly, but it’s bad news for our cherished democracy,” he told the inquiry on Friday.

“This is not reform. It is the preservation of incumbency, pulling up the drawbridge so that the political class can continue to underwhelm voters.”

The Climate 200 founder said the donation laws should not go into effect until a looming High Court challenge was resolved.

The laws include an $800,000 spending cap per electorate, but registered political parties are able to access a $90 million war chest for general advertising.

Labor national secretary Paul Erickson
Labor’s Paul Erickson defended the reforms, saying they had levelled the playing field. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

“If parties can spend up to $3 million a seat, then independents should be able to spend $3 million a seat, and right now you’re able to do that, whereas an independent is only allowed to spend $800,000,” Mr Holmes a Court said.

Caps should be removed for campaigns not involving major parties, he said.

“We’re not opposed to caps,” Mr Holmes a Court said.

“One of the things we’ve asked for is that crowdfunding campaigns that aggregate small donations shouldn’t themselves be subject to the caps.

“If the money has come in a controlled manner, then the organisation that aggregates those should be able to allocate them around the country, just as other political actors can.”

The latest political donation disclosure figures from the Australian Electoral Commission said Climate 200 spent $5 million during the 2024/25 financial year.

Top five third-party election spenders in 2024/25
Climate 200 racked up $5 million in election spending during the 2024/25 financial year. (Susie Dodds/AAP PHOTOS)

Labor national secretary Paul Erickson also gave evidence at the inquiry, saying the donation laws had been able to level the playing field.

Mr Erickson, who helped mastermind Labor’s 2025 campaign that won the party 94 seats in the lower house, said the reforms helped reduce the influence of larger donors.

“One of the most attractive aspects of the new funding and disclosure regime … is that it takes off the table the arms race dynamic in those local contests,” he said.

“The system was beginning to advantage high net-wealth individuals, networks and organisations, and in some cases, was creating environments where one or two actors were crowding out every other voice in the campaign.”

Mr Erickson said the reforms would limit forces in election campaigns such as those by mining magnate Clive Palmer.

Mr Palmer was the single largest donor in the past election campaign, spending $53 million and pumping in more money than the Labor and Liberal parties combined.

Stocks set for tough week, oil eyes big gains

Stocks set for tough week, oil eyes big gains

Asia stocks fell on Friday and were headed for their sharpest weekly drop in six years while oil prices were poised for their ‌biggest jump in three in a turbulent week for global markets as the conflict in the Middle East showed few signs of easing.

Investors sought the safety of cash as they sobered up ‌to the fact the US-Israel war on Iran could drag on longer than initially anticipated.

They also moved to price in more hawkish rate expectations from major central banks, spooked by the prospect ‌of a resurgence in inflation if the spike in energy prices persists.

Yields on US Treasuries have shot up some 18 basis points this week, their most in nearly a year, while the dollar was set for its largest weekly gain in 16 months.

“The range of plausible outcomes (of the war) has expanded to include both the possibility of an exceptionally constructive resolution and a highly destructive one,” said Daleep Singh, chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

“Markets are being asked to price a much fatter set of tails with very little reliable information about the likelihood of each, ‌or the path in ‌between.”

The war has thus far ⁠had the biggest impact on oil prices, with Brent crude futures now trading around $US83 ($A119) per barrel, having been as low as $US69 ($A99) ​just about a week ago. US crude shot up to a 20-month high earlier this week.

Both are set to clock a rise of more than 15 per cent for the week, their largest since February 2022.

“The most market-relevant risk lies in severe escalation or direct infrastructure damage across key Gulf producers, which would likely produce sustained upward pressure on oil, feed into higher headline inflation, tighten global liquidity, and materially raise recession risks,” said Klay Group’s senior investment team.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan last traded 0.4 per cent lower and was set to fall 6.6 per cent for the week, ⁠which would mark its steepest weekly drop since March 2020.

Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.5 per cent and on track ‌for a 6.5 per cent weekly loss, ​while South Korea’s Kospi was also headed for its largest weekly fall in six years with a 10.5 per cent slide.

The market rout this week sent even high-flying technology stocks and indexes ​such as the ‌Kospi tumbling, as investors scrambled to book profits to cover losses elsewhere.

“When the dollar rallies and US yields rise, funding conditions are tightening, which will often exacerbate broader moves particularly if ​there’s leverage involved,” said Ben Bennett, head of Asia investment strategy at L&G Asset Management.

US stock futures were steady in Asia on Friday, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.6 per cent and DAX futures added 0.5 per cent.

The dollar has emerged as one of few winners this week in volatile sessions that have dragged stocks, bonds and, at times, even ​safe-haven ​precious metals lower.

The rally in the dollar hit pause on Friday, but ​it was still on track for a 1.4 per cent weekly gain, bolstered by safe-haven demand and reduced ‌US rate-easing expectations.

The euro, which remains vulnerable to a spike in energy prices, was set to fall 1.7 per cent for the week, while sterling was similarly headed for a 0.95 per cent weekly drop.

Investors are now pricing in about 40 basis points worth of easing from the Federal Reserve this year, down from 56 bps a week ago, while odds for a rate cut from the Bank of England this month have fallen to 23 per cent from a near certainty just last week.

The European Central Bank is seen hiking rates by year-end.

The shifting rate expectations have, in turn, pushed ​up global bond yields, and in Asia on Friday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury was steady at 4.1421 per cent, having risen some 18 bps this week.

The two-year yield ​has jumped 20 bps for the week.

Elsewhere, spot gold ⁠was steady at $US5,078.88 ($A7,269.61) an ounce, though it was headed for a 3.7 per cent weekly fall as rising yields and a stronger dollar eclipsed ​the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. 

Australian travellers urged not to ‘panic cancel’ plans

Australian travellers urged not to ‘panic cancel’ plans

Australians with travel plans are being urged not to “panic cancel” their flights amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Another flight from Dubai is expected to land in Sydney on Friday, allowing previously-stranded Australians to reunite with their loved ones.

The first commercial flight to leave the region for Australia since the outbreak of the US and Israeli conflict with Iran arrived late on Wednesday.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Thursday said he hoped another two flights from Dubai scheduled to leave on the same day would go ahead.

flight
A flight from Dubai touched down in Sydney on Wednesday with another is expected on Friday. (George Chan/AAP PHOTOS)

Australian Travel Industry Association chief executive Dean Long said the aviation sector was adapting, with Etihad, Emirates and some Asian carriers operating normally.

“We have flights coming out of the Middle East,” Mr Long said.

“There will be some delays and a bit more disruption than what we’re used to but no one in the travel industry is going to put you in a place where it’s unsafe.”

He urged Australians planning to travel in the coming weeks and months not to cancel their flights.

“If you’re booked to travel shortly via the Middle East, it is critical that you do not panic-cancel but rather wait for your airline to cancel as otherwise you are erasing all of your rights of a refund or rebook,” Mr Long said.

Aviation expert Steven Leib said airlines conducted careful risk assessments before allowing aircraft to operate in contested airspace.

“The carriers that are based there will be very eager to restart operations because of the intense impact to them, whereas foreign carriers might be much more hesitant,” he said.

It could take several weeks to bring Australians home, Dr Leib said.

“If we see more stability and more repatriation flights added, that could accelerate things significantly,” he said.

There are 24,000 Australians in the UAE, made up of travellers and residents, while about 115,000 are across the broader Middle East.

The federal government has deployed military assets to assist stranded Australian citizens and permanent residents.

A Royal Australian Air Force C17A Globemaster heavy transport aircraft and KC-30A multi-role tanker transport have been deployed as a precautionary measure.

Royal Australian Air Force C17A Globemaster
Australia has deployed a RAAF C-17A Globemaster to assist stranded citizens if needed. (Dan Peled/AAP PHOTOS)

Mr Albanese came under fire from the opposition after he urged Australians to heed travel advice and take up commercial options to return home.

“The government is failing to respond adequately,” Liberal defence spokesman James Paterson told reporters.

“Every other nation of comparable size and civilians is either chartering aircraft or sending their military planes.”

On Thursday, the New Zealand government announced it would send two defence force aircraft to repatriate its citizens.

Opposition foreign affairs spokesman Ted O’Brien said military planes were used at short notice to evacuate Australians from Israel in 2025, New Caledonia in 2024 and Afghanistan in 2021.

China shows tolerance for slower growth in 2026 target

China shows tolerance for slower growth in 2026 target

China has set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5 per cent, a slight downgrade ‌from the 5.0 per cent pace Australia’s major trading partner achieved in 2025.

The target leaves room for greater, albeit not decisive, efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and rebalance the economy.

China also released its 15th five-year plan, and as ‌widely expected, pledged investments in innovation, high-tech industries, scientific research and a “notable” – but unspecified – increase in household consumption as a share of economic output.

The pledges show Beijing is concerned weak domestic demand makes the ‌world’s second-largest economy too reliant on exports for growth, but that it also does not want to abandon efforts to upgrade its vast industrial complex, which gives it supply chain leverage over Washington and its allies at a time when the rivalry is intensifying.

The growth target appeared in an official government report seen by Reuters and due to be presented in parliament, which opened its annual session on Thursday with a speech by Premier Li Qiang.

Economists have said a lower target gives Beijing more flexibility to implement reforms, such as reducing industrial overcapacity, but cautioned this ‌shift does not mean ‌a departure from its production-focused ⁠growth model.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (front C)
China’s five-year plan pledges investments in innovation, high-tech industries and research. (EPA PHOTO)

Analysts at the Mercator Institute for China Studies describe promises to consumers as “hollow”, saying the leadership believes expansive support ​to key industries serves national interests best at a time of great power competition.

“Precariously balanced as it is, China’s economic policy will continue to systematically favour companies over households,” MERICS analysts wrote in a note before the parliament meeting.

“Beijing will persist in slow-rolling measures to expand social welfare, while using generous subsidies and tax incentives to drive industrial growth and upgrading.”

In terms of stimulus, China plans a budget deficit of 4.0 per cent of gross domestic product, similar to 2025. 

It set unchanged special debt issuance quotas for the central government of 1.3 trillion yuan ($A266 billion) and ⁠for local governments at 4.4 trillion yuan ($A900.73 billion).

China pledged to raise minimum monthly pensions by 20 yuan ($A4.10) per ‌person and basic medical ​insurance subsidies for rural, non-working people by 24 yuan ($A4.90). 

It said it wants to increase education spending, subsidise childcare and reform public hospitals.

Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, expects fiscal levers ​to be adjusted ‌flexibly, based on how the economy performs in coming months.

“If exports remain strong, they may tolerate weak domestic consumption. Conversely, if exports falter, they will step up domestic stimulus to ​defend the GDP target,” said Hu.

Former central bank adviser Liu Shinjin warned at a financial forum in January that China’s record $1.2 trillion ($A245.64 billion) trade surplus in 2025 – a key factor behind reaching the 2025 economic growth target – reflects not only rising manufacturing competitiveness but also weak domestic consumption.

He said China must shift from its long-standing reliance ​on investment ​and exports towards a model primarily driven by innovation and consumption, adding that ​while manufacturing could be further upgraded, this doesn’t mean its share in the economy shouldn’t fall.

“China’s ‌current insufficient consumption is deeply tied to a series of institutional and structural factors, making it unrealistic to fully resolve these issues in the short term,” Liu said.

“However, leaving them unaddressed is not an option either.”

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