Taxpayers could be missing out on almost $200 billion in forgone revenue over the next decade, as a result of property investor tax breaks, analysis shows.

Research published by the Parliamentary Budget Office on Friday, at the behest of the Greens, estimated the capital gains tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing deductions on investment properties would cost taxpayers more than $24 billion per year by 2035/36.

The findings were latched onto by Greens treasury spokesman Nick McKim, who is leading a Senate inquiry into the CGT discount and is set to deliver a report by March 17.

“Winding back the CGT discount would help renters, first-home buyers and the budget,” he said.

“The evidence given to the Greens-led Senate inquiry has made the case for change overwhelming.”

The PBO found negative gearing and the CGT discount together would result in $15.4 billion in forgone revenue this financial year.

Since 2015/16, almost $110 billion has been forgone, with another $190 billion expected over the next 10 years.

However, Peter Tulip, chief economist at free-market think tank the Centre for Independent Studies, warned reforming the CGT discount would be unlikely to recoup anywhere near that amount of revenue for the federal budget.

Most of the proposals flagged would bring in little extra revenue in the first few years, because of elements grandfathering existing assets, he said.

Investors would also change their behaviour as a result of the new tax incentives, prioritising other assets or delaying sales to put off realising their gains, which would lead to less revenue.

As well as the cost to the budget, advocates for change have pointed out the concession benefits overwhelmingly favour wealthier Australians.

Analysis by the Australian Council of Social Service, also released on Friday, found 22 per cent of all CGT discount expenditure accrued to Australia’s top five wealthiest electorates – all in Sydney and Melbourne.

“This is money that could be invested in social housing, essential services, income support and the communities that need support the most,” said ACOSS chief executive Cassandra Goldie.

“Instead, it’s being used to supercharge inequality.”

Wentworth, in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, accrued the greatest benefit, with the average resident receiving a CGT break of $13,450 per year. 

Meanwhile, the western Sydney electorate of Blaxland, where the average taxable income is $53,542, receives an average CGT concession of $333.

Independent Wentworth MP Allegra Spender on Wednesday released a white paper calling for the CGT discount to be cut from 50 per cent to 30 per cent.

Dr Tulip said the most attractive model for reform would be a return to the pre-1999 tax regime, in which capital gains were discounted in line with inflation, so investors were only taxed on the real income they made from the asset.

Qantas has agreed to a multi-million dollar settlement to kill off a class action against its contentious COVID-19 flight credits.

The lawsuit accused the airline of breaching contracted refund obligations to customers who had flights cancelled between the start of 2020 and November 1, 2022.

The $105 million settlement, revealed by Qantas on Friday, is subject to approval by the Federal Court of Australia.

Under its terms, the airline makes no admission of liability.

The airline noted it had previously provisioned for the lawsuit and the increased sum would be recognised outside of underlying earnings in the second half of the financial year.

Qantas shareholders appeared unfazed by the announcement, with shares fractionally down when the Australian Securities Exchange opened on Friday.

Echo Law filed the class action against Australia’s national carrier in 2023, alleging the airline misled customers about their refund options, withheld funds and engaged in a “pattern of unconscionable conduct”.

The firm alleged Qantas breached Australian consumer law by failing to immediately issue refunds and retaining customers’ funds when flights were cancelled in 2020

The airline rejected the claims at the time, declaring it had refunded more than $1 billion to customers impacted by flight disruptions in 2020.

Qantas launched a campaign to encourage customers to use remaining flight credits after Australia’s consumer watchdog indicated a probe into the issue was almost complete.

In August 2023, Qantas removed the expiry date on flight credits issued during the pandemic, meaning customers could indefinitely request a cash refund.

Australia’s resources minister is heading to Japan for talks with her global counterparts about shoring up fuel supplies in the face of oil market chaos that’s being driven by the war in the Middle East.

The price of brent crude, the US oil benchmark, surged to more than $100 a barrel on Friday (AEDT) amid reports Iran had been laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz – a key trade route for oil from the region.

Resources Minister Madeleine King said she would meet her counterparts from the US, Japan, South Korea, Timor Leste and other countries at the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Forum, where petrol and diesel supplies would be on the agenda.

“I’m hoping to achieve good discussions about where everyone else is sitting in addressing the fuel supply or demand issues they’re facing in their countries,” she told ABC TV on Friday morning.

Ms King said boosting supplies of critical minerals and rare earths – used in electric vehicle batteries, smartphones and sensitive defence technologies – would also be discussed.

Asked if Australia could face broader fuel shortages if the conflict drags on for more than a few weeks, Ms King conceded the longer the war continued, the harder it would be for the global economy.

“The ripple effects of such conflict reach everybody’s shores, including Australia’s,” she said.

The federal government has relaxed quality standards for the next 60 days to boost the domestic market with an extra 100 million litres of fuel per month, allowing fuel with higher levels of sulphur to be used.

Quality levels will still remain very high by international standards, the government said.

Ms King said Australia was still well-supplied with global fuel shipments and there were no indications future deliveries would be delayed.

“We do have the supply. There have  been difficulties in some areas because of the extraordinary demand, but we do have sufficient supplies,” she said.

Deputy Opposition Leader Jane Hume said the government had unfairly blamed motorists for panic-buying petrol when broader structural issues were to blame for the shortage, adding that Labor had failed to guarantee Australians they won’t run out of fuel.

“We’re very pleased that there’s going to be more fuel, particularly getting out to the regions,” she told Seven’s Sunrise program on Friday.

Families of people murdered in the Bondi massacre fear the royal commission into anti-Semitism will become a farce following the sudden resignation of a former ASIO boss from the inquiry.

Former spy chief and US ambassador Dennis Richardson announced he was quitting the probe as he was “surplus to requirements”.

Originally brought on to run an independent investigation into possible intelligence failures leading up to the December 14 terror attack, his report was rolled into the broader anti-Semitism royal commission.

The wide-ranging federal probe was called after almost a month of lobbying from Australia’s Jewish community.

Jenny Rotyur, the niece of Boris Tetleroyd who was fatally shot at the Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach, said the families were worried “everything would fall apart”.

“We wanted a really close look at the intelligence agencies and their failures,” she told AAP.

“We are becoming extremely concerned that this royal commission is turning into a farce.

“We need the truth to be found, and without an expert on security agencies, I’m finding it hard to believe they’re going to be able to do that.”

Speaking to reporters in Canberra on Thursday, Mr Richardson said his departure would not affect the inquiry’s investigation into intelligence services.

Sabina Kleitman, the daughter of Holocaust survivor and Bondi victim Alex Kleytman, said she and the community were “shocked” by Mr Richardson’s announcement.

“Due to his credentials he would be the best person to get down to the reason behind what had happened,” she said.

The families only found out about his resignation through media reporting and were awaiting a full response, Ms Kleitman said.

Her 87-year-old father was shot in the chest as he died shielding his wife of almost 60 years from the gunmen.

Mr Kleytman had survived the horrors of World War II and persecution in the Soviet Union before relocating to Australia with his family for a safer life.

He was among 15 people killed by a father-son duo in one of the nation’s worst ever mass shootings.

The inquiry, headed by former High Court judge Virginia Bell, will hand down an interim report by the end of April.

Australia has ordered all non-essential officials to leave Israel and the United Arab Emirates two weeks after the US and Israel’s war on Iran engulfed the Middle East.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong said staff were directed to leave “due to the deteriorating security situation”.

“Essential Australian officials will remain in-country to support Australians who need it,” she said in a statement posted on social media on Thursday night.

“We continue to advise Australians not to travel to Israel and the UAE. 

“We urge you to leave the Middle East if you can and if it’s safe to do so.”

Senator Wong’s statement comes after the government told families of Australian officials in Israel and Lebanon to leave in the days before the war began on February 28.

Voluntary departures were also offered to diplomats’ dependents in the UAE, Jordan and Qatar.

The war has so far killed about 2000 people and caused the biggest disruption to global oil supplies in decades.

Oil prices that had ‌come down earlier this week after US President Donald Trump said the war ⁠would soon be over soared back above $US100 a barrel after an apparent escalation in Iranian attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf.

The two-week-old conflict has prompted thousands of Australians to flee the region, with the government saying on Tuesday that more than 2600 Australians were returning home on commercial flights.

Senator Wong said the overwhelming majority of Australian citizens who were travelling through the Middle East and became stuck when the war broke out had returned home.

The federal budget is set to take another hit from “Australia’s worst public policy decision of the 21st century thus far”.

Independent economist and proud Tasmanian Saul Eslake doesn’t hold back in his assessment of the 2018 GST deal between the then-Morrison coalition government and Western Australia.

When it was first announced, changes to the distribution of GST revenue among the states, struck after years of persistent protestations from Perth that they were getting less than their fair share, were forecast to set the federal budget back $9 billion over eight years.

But Mr Eslake now expects the cost to the federal budget will exceed $60 billion over 11 years, making it the biggest blowout in the cost of any single policy decision ever, with the exception of the NDIS.

The Commonwealth Grants Commission, an independent body that advises the federal government on the share of GST each state and territory should receive, will reveal the shape of the latest carve-up on Friday.

The distribution of GST has historically been decided based on need, which meant that resource-rich WA received a lower per capita share than poorer states like Tasmania.

But the 2018 legislation meant that in the past two financial years, WA could receive no less than 75 cents to the dollar of what it would get based on a per capita distribution.

WA’s floor will increase to the equivalent of NSW’s per capita share in Friday’s carve-up, which in the prior financial year was 83 per cent.

That means the cost to federal taxpayers of topping up the pool of GST revenue to make sure no state or territory is worse off will rise from $6.1 billion to $6.9 billion in 2026/27, according to budget estimates.

“Which I think is scandalous,” Mr Eslake told AAP.

Mr Eslake did not blame the WA government for seeking to “screw as much money out of Canberra as they can” – that’s a state treasurer’s KPI, he said.

He laid the blame at the feet of successive federal governments that have continued the deal out of fear of losing votes in the electorally-significant western state. 

“How Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who profess a commitment to equity, can take almost $7 billion out of the federal budget and give it to the richest state in Australia so they can run surpluses, I cannot understand,” Mr Eslake said.

WA Treasurer Rita Saffioti said other states and the federal budget have been significantly better off since 2018 due to the higher than expected company tax collections from WA, outweighing the cost of the deal.

“Without the 2018 GST reforms, we risk $6 billion being ripped from the WA economy every year, reducing our ability to invest in the critical economic enabling infrastructure that powers our state and the national economy,” she said.

Google Maps will depend more heavily on artificial intelligence to help people figure out where they want to go and the best way to get there as part of a major redesign.

The overhaul driven by Google’s Gemini technology will introduce two AI features into a digital mapping service used by more than two billion people worldwide.

One tool called Ask Maps will expand upon conversational abilities that Google brought to the service last November, giving suggestions to users looking for things such as nearby places to charge their devices, cafes with short lines or a detailed itinerary for a road trip involving several stops and excursions.

Gemini’s recommendations will draw upon a database spanning more than 300 million places and reviews from more than 500 million contributors that have been accumulated since Google Maps’ debut more than 20 years ago.

Google executives declined to answer a question about whether the company eventually plans to sell ads to boost businesses’ chances of being displayed in Ask Maps’ recommendations.

Ask Maps initially will be available on Google Maps’ mobile app for iPhones and Android software in the United States and India, before expanding to personal computers and other countries.

In what Google executives are billing as the biggest change to the maps’ driving directions, Gemini has also created a new tool dubbed Immersive Navigation that will present a three-dimensional perspective designed to give users a better grasp of where they are at any moment in time.

The 3D renderings created by Gemini will include landmarks such as notable buildings, medians in the roads and other aspects of the terrain that drivers are seeing around them as they drive to help them get their bearings more quickly.

Google believes its AI guardrails are now strong enough to prevent the Gemini technology underlying Immersive Navigation from fabricating bogus places to go, a malfunction known within the industry as a “hallucination”.

Immersive Navigation is also supposed to help Google Maps more clearly explain the pros and cons of different driving routes to the same recommendation, as well as point to the best places to park once a user arrives at a designated destination.

The new AI-powered navigation will only be available in the US initially, on Google Maps’ mobile app for the iPhone and Android, as well as cars equipped with options to activate CarPlay and Android Auto.

Mortgage holders are being warned interest rates could hit a 15-year high by the end of the year, as surging oil prices prompt all four big banks to tip an impending rate hike.

ANZ Bank on Thursday became the latest major lender to change its prediction for the Reserve Bank’s March meeting, after CBA, Westpac and NAB revised their calls on Wednesday.

Australia’s economy was already running too hot for the RBA’s liking, and the Middle East conflict was likely to send inflation even higher, ANZ economists Adam Boyton and Adelaide Timbrell said in a research note.

“The increased inflation risks will exacerbate those inflation concerns, creating more urgency to move quickly to contain inflation expectations,” they said. 

“Inflation expectations in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence data are at their highest level since November 2022.”

The big four banks expect the RBA to lift the cash rate a further 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent in May, which would make for three hikes in a row if their predictions for next week also bear out.

Each 25 basis point hike adds about $90 in monthly repayments to a typical owner-occupier mortgage of $600,000.

Once the cash rate gets to 4.35 per cent, ANZ expects the RBA to go on an extended pause to assess the impact of higher rates on the economy.

“At this stage, the activity impacts on the economy will become more important,” Mr Boyton and Ms Timbrell said.

“There are already signs that the consumer spending impulse has slowed this year, and this may slip further given the dip in consumer confidence in recent weeks.”

Household spending fell for the first time since September 2024, according to Commonwealth Bank’s Household Spending Insights index for February, revealing that month’s rate rise may already be taking a toll on consumers.

CBA head of Australian economics Belinda Allen said it was still too early to tell if this was coincidence or the start of a slowing trend in household consumption growth.

“More modest consumption growth will be needed to help bring the economy back into balance and inflation back to target,” she said.

“Rising energy prices will add to inflation and constrain household incomes this year and do add a downside risk to the outlook.”

Rising interest rates will also put a dampener on consumption, with money markets almost fully priced in for three more hikes by the end of 2026 to leave the cash rate at 4.6 per cent – the highest level since October 2011.

“The escalating turmoil from the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices is poised to tighten its grip on Australian households, amplifying cost-of-living pressures at a time when inflation remains sticky,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

“Following this week’s jump in consumer inflation expectations – now at multi-year highs alongside hawkish commentary from RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser – Australian rates markets continue to reprice aggressively towards additional tightening.”

That has sent the Aussie dollar to fresh highs against its US counterpart, although it retreated to US71.25c by Thursday afternoon as high energy prices and safe-haven demand supported the greenback.

But the longer the war goes on and energy supplies were disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the worse the prospects were for the Aussie dollar,  NAB head of FX research Ray Attrill said.

Australia is a net exporter of energy, so is seen as better placed than other countries to deal with rising oil and gas prices. 

But the Aussie dollar was also a risk-sensitive currency, vulnerable to sell-offs in global equity markets, he said.

In an extreme risk-off scenario, Mr Attrill predicts the Aussie could fall as low as 65c against the US dollar, but his base case scenario remains for it to stay in the low 70s throughout 2026.

A local battery minerals miner is at a turning point as its flagship project takes shape to deliver a massive production improvement, its leader says.

Liontown Resources posted a first-half loss of $184.1 million, compared to a loss of $15.6 million in the equivalent period.

The half had been an “inflection point” for the West Australian business,  chief executive Tony Ottaviano said on Thursday.

“Firstly, Kathleen Valley is delivering as designed,” Mr Ottaviano told analysts at an earnings briefing.

“We completed the transition to 100 per cent underground mining during the first half and generated over $208 million of revenue, more than double the prior corresponding period.”

The Perth-based miner’s production of spodumene, the primary source of lithium, surged 70 per cent on the equivalent half to 193 kilotonnes.

Lithium’s price jumped during the second half of 2025 as a projected supply glut and concerns around EV demand in China proved overcooked.

“We’re realising higher prices, they continue to strengthen in the second half,” Mr Ottaviano said.

“The market is also helping: we’re now seeing BESS (battery energy storage systems) emerging as a second demand engine alongside EVs.”

Access to several brownfield projects and restarts gave Liontown a major competitive advantage as lithium demand continued to rise, as new projects faced years of approvals and planning.

“Which brings me to the four million tonne expansion study underway at Kathleen Valley,” Mr Ottaviano said.

“This is a brownfield growth option from an operating asset, and there is only very few around the world that can bring on additional tonnes to the market as quickly as this option can.”

Liontown’s underlying loss was $7.7 million, which was an improvement from $10.7 million in the prior corresponding half.

Its statutory $184 million loss included a $104 million accounting charge due to a convertible note deal that was impacted by Liontown’s share price more than doubling over the half.

“An estimated $58 million gain is expected to be recognised upon conversion into equity and will be reflected in our full year results,” Mr Ottaviano said.

South Korea’s LG Energy sold its 7.5 per cent stake in Liontown in a block trade in February, but it remains one of the miner’s major off-takers alongside Ford and Tesla.

The miner left its 2026 forward guidance unchanged and projected minor impacts from surging oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

“We’re 80 per cent renewable,” Mr Ottaviano said.

“On average, our total diesel cost is about four to five per cent of our overall cost base … so we’re pretty confident from that perspective.”

Liontown’s share price fell about 2.7 per cent by the afternoon to $1.59, on par with a similar dip in competitor PLS as the broader sector slumped.

Petrol prices are at risk of rising to levels “not seen in history” as war in the Middle East causes unprecedented disruption to oil supplies, a leading commodities expert warns.

Conflict in the Middle East has sent benchmark oil prices bouncing between the low $US80s a barrel and almost $US120 a barrel as traders tried to make sense of the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and what US President Donald Trump will do next.

Brent crude settled just under $US100 a barrel, by noon Thursday AEDT, after the International Energy Agency called on its 32 member countries, including Australia, to voluntarily release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves.

But CBA commodities analyst Vivek Dhar believes energy markets are not fully pricing in the disruption posed by the conflict.

“Our expectation that this crisis could last for months instead of weeks likely means that markets are underestimating the disruption to global energy markets,” he said in a research note on Thursday.

Brent prices could surge as high as $US150 a barrel to force down demand among developing countries once supply shortfalls trickle through the pipeline, he said.

As a rule of thumb, every $US1 rise in the price of crude oil causes petrol prices to rise by about 1c/litre at the bowser, according to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver.

That means a $US50 increase in the Brent crude price to $US150 a barrel would translate to a 50c/l rise in unleaded.

But it could rise even higher if advanced economies needed to lift prices to reduce demand too.

LNG price spikes could also exceed those seen during the outbreak of the Ukraine war, which could flow through to higher energy prices in Australia.

“If the conflict is not resolved, oil and refined product prices are at risk of rising to levels not seen in history,” Mr Dhar said.

He said that prospect would likely be intolerable for world governments and likely explains why markets are reluctant to countenance an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20 per cent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

But it is also difficult to see the US leaving without its strategic goals achieved.

“This is yet another example of geopolitics clashing with economics in this new era,” Mr Dhar said.

“This adds a wildcard element to the outlook.”

ANZ commodities analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari also said markets were underestimating how long the conflict could last.

A critical risk not priced in is the prospect of wells being shut in by interrupted power supply, insufficient staffing or unstable water access, which could cause temporary disruptions to become long-term supply losses, even if the conflict is resolved, they said.

Two foreign oil tankers were set ablaze off the coast of Iraq on Thursday morning, as Iran ramped up attacks in retaliation to US strikes.

“This appears to mark a direct and forceful Iranian response to the IEA’s overnight announcement of a massive strategic reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

West Texas Intermediate, another benchmark oil price, jumped 7.5 per cent from Wednesday’s close, “underscoring how quickly supply-disruption fears can override co-ordinated stockpile drawdowns”, Mr Sycamore said.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen was considering the IEA’s request to release oil reserves, but stressed there was no immediate supply threat to Australia.

“Any action taken as part of a collective action will be in our national interest,” he said in a statement.

“If we do join this action Australia will not be required to send fuel overseas but rather use its existing domestic reserves to take pressure out of the global market.”