Crippling debt, political turmoil and the controversial AFL stadium have left Tasmania in a state of crisis. Greg Barns reports.
A week into Tasmania’s mid winter election campaign, precipitated by a successful ‘no confidence’ in the Premier Jeremy Rockliff moved by the ALP and supported by the Greens and most independents in the State’s 35 member lower house, and one can only say, its depressing.
Labor’s leader Dean Winter and Premier Jeremy Rockliff are simply exemplars of what we have in Australia today – political leaders who are devoid of a big picture vision.
The election campaign is depressing in that Tasmania is in a worst financial position than any other state in Australia but neither the Liberals or Labor appear to care. On the contrary they are the big spenders.
Then there is the fact that a sports stadium is front and centre of the campaign. Forget the homelessness crisis, the appalling low rates of literacy, the worst health outcomes in the nation etc.
AFL gun to the head
The stadium was imposed on Tasmania by the most arrogant and thuggish sporting organisation in this land – the AFL. It told the Tasmanian government if it wanted a team in the nation’s premier sporting competition then it needed to build a permanently roofed stadium on Macquarie Point – a waterfront site.
It was gun at your head stuff. Mind you to expect that the Tasmanian government would put the interests of its people first and insist on some negotiation over the stadium site and cost, was a step too far given the track record of the Liberal government on this issue.
The stadium is hideously expensive and the Rockliff government has decided to rip up its planning process and ram through special legislation to ensure the AFL gets its wish.
It’s the economy
But the real issue in the election is the fact that Tasmania is back in the red, yet again. It was there in the late 1980s and early 1990s and dug out by a series of Labor and Liberal governments.
This time it is Mr Rockliff’s Liberals, in government since 2014, who have to shoulder the blame. As the prominent economist Saul Eslake said earlier this week in an oped published in the Hobart Mercury, largely because of “unfunded vote-buying at the last three elections, Tasmania’s public finances are, by many metrics, the worst of any state or territory.
“The 2025-26 State Budget presented last month shows that Tasmania’s public sector – that is, including government business enterprises as well as the departments and agencies which constitute core ‘general government’ sector – will incur cash deficits equivalent to about 5½ per cent of Tasmania’s gross state product over the four years to 2028-29. That’s worse than any other state or territory, including Victoria, for which the corresponding figure is about 1¾ per cent of gross state product.”
A billion for the stadium on top
The stadium will cost Tasmanian taxpayers over $1 billion – its already sitting at $945 million. Then there are the other promises both Labor and the Liberals are making. No talk of tackling debt though. In short, an Alice in Wonderland and bread and circuses approach from both the major parties.
Of course what is clear, even a month out, is that it is highly unlikely that Labor or the Liberals will get the 18 seats needed for a majority in the House of Assembly. The Liberals currently hold 14 seats and Labor 10.
At the moment it is 5 Greens and 6 independents, although 3 of the latter are running in this election under the National Party banner, that hold the balance of power. It is difficult to say what the make up of the cross bench will be after the election but it can’t be ruled out that the Greens will be the king makers. That will displease both the Labor Party and the Liberals – the former has a visceral hatred of anything Green.
Speaking of candidates it is extraordinary that former federal MPs have been endorsed as candidates for Labor and the Liberals. Talk about lack of imagination. Following the lead of former Howard government minister Eric Abetz who, after losing his senate seat in the 2019 election, now finds himself a minister in the state government, Gavin Pearce, Bridget Archer and Brian Mitchell are standing in the election. Mr Pearce and Ms Archer were federal Liberal MPs who lost their seats in the recent election, and Mr Mitchell was the Labor MP for Lyons who retired.
The only, and I mean only, possible silver lining in this dismal election campaign is that ‘no stadium’ candidates win seats. And in doing so, whomever is premier – Mr Rockliff or Mr Winter – get the message that Tasmanians expect that their government prioritises scarce resources on those who cannot find housing or who wait for years for surgery. And of course the expectation that governments reduce the crippling debt that every Tasmanian is saddled with today.
Meanwhile this island state continues to drift aimlessly, waiting, as always for something to turn up and rescue it from failed state status.
Michael West established Michael West Media in 2016 to focus on journalism of high public interest, particularly the rising power of corporations over democracy. West was formerly a journalist and editor with Fairfax newspapers, a columnist for News Corp and even, once, a stockbroker.