Two polls, same message. Labor is sliding, Dutton is rising. Is the Albanese Government paying the price for only aspiring to be a little better than the Liberal Party? Michael Pascoe comments.
Imagine adopting all the Liberal Party’s national security policies and advisors, then going one step further by outspending the Coalition on defence for the sake of being able to claim you’re outspending the Coalition on defence. And then getting absolutely no credit for it, with the electorate thinking that Peter Dutton has a safer pair of hands on national security than Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles.
That is what has happened to the Albanese Government. Trying to continue the “small target” policy that gave Scott Morrison room to lose the 2022 election has meant giving Peter Dutton room to make the running for the 2025 election.
The result is that Labor starts the week with two polls saying it is sliding, and Dutton’s LNP brand of populist nativism is rising.
Being scared of standing for too much has left Labor standing for little, allowing the LNP to be seen to at least stand for something – however wrong-headed it might be.
It’s just another poll, but…
Like everyone else in the commentary game, I’m wary of paying too much attention to opinion polls except that everyone in the game does. When two separate polls on the same day point to much the same conclusion, there is reason to pay attention.
The SMS/Age Resolve poll ($) provides the shock of Peter Dutton, the Abbott-reincarnated political thug from central focus grouping, overtaking Albanese as preferred prime minister, 36 to 35.
Meanwhile, the AFR/Freshwater poll ($) has Dutton closing within two points of Albanese as preferred PM, Albanese losing 3 points since last month at 43, while Dutton picked up 4 points at 41.
Somewhat confusingly, Freshwater nonetheless scores Albanese having a lowering ‘favourable’ rating than Dutton – 34 to 35 – and a higher ‘unfavourable’ rating – 46 to 40.
The two-party preferred vote remains 50/50, but the momentum is all one way. And this after Dutton went all-in on reigniting the climate wars, telling his nuclear porkies and avoiding examination of policy detail by not having any.
Economy, climate or something else?
The SMAge and AFR commentary focuses on the economy and climate, but I suggest the reading on national security is, in many ways, more instructive.
The best line to come out of Operation Desert Storm, the US-led operation to chase Iraq out of Kuwait, was General ‘Stormin’ Norman’ Schwarzkopf”s: ”When placed in command, take charge”.
When placed in command, Labor has concentrated on not scaring the horses.
Focused on keeping its don’t-rock-the-boat election promises – with the exception of the no-brainer but not-very-well-handled recalibrating of the Stage 3 tax cuts – timid Labor faces the embarrassment of being reeled in by shallowest incarnation of the Liberal Party in its 80-year history.
If not Dutton, who?
Perhaps the most damning summary of the current Liberal Party came from the AFR’s ($) Phil Coorey when the Josh Frydenberg balloon was very briefly flown a couple of weeks ago:
“…the paucity of talent inside the ranks of the federal parliamentary Liberal Party is such that there will be many eager for Frydenberg to return. Right now, if Peter Dutton were to be hit by the bus – or flogged at the next election – there is no obvious leadership alternative. None.”
Dutton with hair
Being timid, running scared, Albanese did not do the obvious thing about the tax cuts when he was elected, which was to be shocked, absolutely shocked to find that the Treasury could run a ruler over the thing and find it no longer fit for purpose and in need of adjusting. Instead, for nearly two years Albo kept saying he wouldn’t change them so when he did, he received no credit for it.
Not very bright politics, Prime Minister.
Going all the way with the USA, signing up for Scott Morrison’s AUKUS on the briefest of verbal briefings so as not to be wedged on national security, has proven to be even more embarrassing.
Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles (a.k.a. “Dutton With Hair”) said the quiet bit out loud when bulldozing the ALP conference last year into swallowing the AUKUS raw prawn.
It was all about proving “to Australians that Labor is the better party to manage defence,” pushing defence spending to 2.3% of GDP, 15% more than the previous bipartisan target of 2%.
So how has that worked for you, Richard, and our donations to US and UK arms manufacturers from here to eternity? According to the Resolve poll, when asked which party would perform best on national security and defence,
42 per cent answer the Liberals, only 23 per cent Labor.
Economic management record
Before the Liberals over-egged COVID stimulus, and after they were running the economy into the ground, Liberals were preferred to Labor 40 to 24. Since then, Labor actually recorded a couple of surpluses along with the lowest unemployment in half a century.
On education, traditionally a Labor strong suit, the Liberal Party pipped Labor 30 to 29. On healthcare and aged care, they tied 30 each.
Labor did a little better than Liberals on “the environment and climate change”, 24 to 22, but “someone else” scored 27 and “undecided” 28 – so not what you could try to call a “win”.
In the killer category of “housing affordability and rent”, the Liberals were ahead 28 to 24. That’s despite Labor trying to increase housing supply (though not by enough) while Liberal policy is just more of the same – making housing more expensive to benefit those who already own it.
A yardstick of Labor’s lack of ticker is that it was not game to make a small change to negative gearing in last month’s budget – restricting it to new builds. It was a change that anyone with pretensions to leadership should have been able to sell – but not scaredy-cat Albanese.
The AFR’s Freshwater poll is a little kinder to Labor on health and education, putting it in front by a couple of points though ‘neither/unsure’ scores more than both Labor and Liberals, but it also scores Liberals ahead of Labor 33 to 28 on housing and accommodation – ‘neither/unsure’ on 39.
Labor has a National Housing Accord, a National Housing and Homelessness Plan, the Housing Australia Future Fund, the Social Housing Accelerator Payment, a Housing Support Program, a New Homes Bonus, established the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, Affordable Housing Bond Aggregator, the National Housing Infrastructure Facility, a National Planning Reform Blueprint, a Help to Buy scheme and there’s the Home Guarantee Scheme.
The Liberals promise to let the few young people with substantial superannuation access some of those savings to increase the bidding at auctions, i.e. no housing supply policy. Yet they are in front.
For all those announceables, Labor has been too timid to nail the abandonment of public housing over the past three decades and commit to a direct government spend on the necessary scale to fix it.
Consequently, it gets no credit for merely being better than the Liberal Party.
Michael Pascoe is an independent journalist and commentator with five decades of experience here and abroad in print, broadcast and online journalism. His book, The Summertime of Our Dreams, is published by Ultimo Press.