A change of leader for the Liberals will do little to reverse the party’s electoral woes, a leading pollster warns.
Sussan Ley’s leadership has come under fire following her party’s split with the Nationals.
But the Liberals face an existential crisis regardless of who the opposition leader is, Redbridge director and former Liberal strategist Tony Barry says.
“No single personality is going to change around their fortunes at the moment,” he told AAP.
“They are polling around 20 per cent and they need to be around 45 per cent primary vote.
“They’re not even in the car park of the ballpark at the moment.
“The only way a reformed coalition will ever be competitive again is if they change the story arc and refocus on the economy and being bold with economic reform.”
While it is possible Ms Ley could face a leadership challenge when parliament resumes on Tuesday, she is likely to hold on for the time being after West Australian MP Andrew Hastie said he would not contest the top job.
Mr Hastie released a statement on Friday afternoon saying he did not have the numbers to mount a challenge to Ms Ley.
His expected leadership rival, frontbencher Angus Taylor, has not stated whether he plans to challenge.
Mr Barry said a change of approach was needed from the Liberals if they wanted to be competitive with Labor.
“The Liberal Party has become National Party-lite, and because they’ve got those rural characteristics, it simply doesn’t work in the urban vote centres,” he said.
“They need to double (their vote). They’re only going to do that by pitching their message on an economic narrative that differentiates them, differentiates them from Labor.”
The Liberals’ split from the Nationals has also complicated leadership tensions.
Nationals leader David Littleproud is facing a spill motion from Queensland MP Colin Boyce on Monday but it is unlikely to succeed.
Negotiations on reforming the coalition have been put on hold until the leadership spill takes place.
Ms Ley has named an interim shadow cabinet, giving the Nationals one week to come back to the negotiating table before a more permanent shadow ministry is locked in.
Mr Barry said the parties needed to put aside differences for the good of the Liberals and Nationals.
“They need to realise that being in a partnership means making internal trade-offs,” he said.
“It means accepting that you can’t remain in a coalition only for as long as it suits you, and then threaten to break it up on an issue that doesn’t suit you.
“They’ve got to be very mindful that their internal dysfunctions will just keep on accumulating scar tissue to the point where they’ll never recover.
“You can’t keep on accumulating scar tissue like this and think that there’s no enduring damage to your brand.”
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