China is smashing its renewable energy transition out of the park, and is headed for 4x the total wind and solar power of the US. What’s the scam?
The scam is bad news for Australian coal exports. A report released today by Climate Energy Finance models a dramatic slowing in the rate of China’s new coal power plant build-out to stop the construction of new plants before 2030.
China currently has 96% of the world’s new coal power under construction. According to CEF’s Tim Buckley:
- China will reach its 14th “Five Year Plan” target of 1,200GW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2030 six years early. If it sustains its current rate of installations, China will have a total wind and solar capacity of 1,294GW by the end of this year. This is 4 times the total installed wind and solar of the US.
- While China’s total power demand will continue to rise through 2040 due to continued economic growth and economy-wide electrification, the share of coal power in total power generation will drop significantly before 2040, plunging from 70% in 2023 to under 50% by 2030 as renewables’ share of generation increases, and to 30% by 2040.
- If the rate of installation of zero-emissions renewable energy projects is maintained, China can achieve ahead of time its ‘dual carbon’ targets – to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2060. It has the opportunity to leverage its phenomenal global leadership to increase its ambition and target net zero by 2050, bringing it in line with the rest of the developed world.
- This critical shift in the global energy landscape has profound significance globally and for Australia – including the inevitable decline in demand for coal in China.
- This is a wakeup call for Australia to accelerate the transition of its economy from dependence on coal exports and diversify its economic base. We should be pivoting now to leverage our world-leading wealth of critical minerals such as lithium and strategic metals like iron ore, processing and manufacturing onshore using our abundant clean energy.
Michael West established Michael West Media in 2016 to focus on journalism of high public interest, particularly the rising power of corporations over democracy. West was formerly a journalist and editor with Fairfax newspapers, a columnist for News Corp and even, once, a stockbroker.