Trump 2.0 could provide a less-myopic Australia a chance to get with the strength. No, argues Michael Pascoe, that doesn’t mean becoming the 51st state of the US.
Which diplomacy should matter more to Australia, our relationship with Indonesia and Malaysia or our relationship with Israel and the US?
Such is Australian myopia that our commentariat almost totally ignores our most important neighbours’ world view, what matters most to them. Instead, we prioritise and slavishly adhere to American foreign policy, constantly demonstrating Paul Keating’s description of Australia seeking security from our region, not within it.
There is bipartisan propagation of the belief that we only have a choice of being for or against America and all its works, the misleadingly labelled “international rules-based order”. Any deviation is labelled as being pro-China/appeasement/panda-hugging. We’re either an American ally or enemy.
You’d never guess it, but most of the world doesn’t see it that way; it is not so binary. We are in a distinct minority of countries that have pledged allegiance to either the American or Chinese flags. Our most important neighbours – the people with whom our future lies – prefer independence.
Embracing our status as America’s Deputy Dawg wins no local friends, earns no respect.
Middle East mayhem
The Middle East war provides an example. Aside from straddling the barbed wire fence of domestic politics on any mention of Palestine or Israel, the Australian Government leaves our neighbours in no doubt that we take our diplomatic lead from Washington.
And when we have taken a qualified step beyond the US line – voting in May for Palestine’s admission to full UN membership, not joining the US, Israel and just seven other countries in opposing it – the LNP can be relied upon to attack the decision. With diminished bipartisanship on foreign affairs, Asia knows Australia is only ever an election away from burrowing deeper into the Anglosphere, making greater use of the dog whistle.
The polls show about half of Australia is prepared to vote for a government that regards calling for a ceasefire as rewarding terrorism.
An Economist report ($) last week highlighted the neighbourhood’s view:
“A recent survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singaporean think-tank, suggested that the war in Gaza was the region’s most pressing geopolitical concern (47% of South-East Asian respondents), surpassing aggression in the South China Sea (40%). Almost eight in ten respondents from Indonesia and seven in ten from Malaysia felt that Israel’s attacks on Gaza had gone too far.”
The neighbours’ opinion received rare local MSM coverage in March when Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was visiting and called for Australia to reinstate funding for UNRWA. (We subsequently did, but only under the cover of company, watching Canada and Sweden do so first.)
The non-aligned are rankled by the differing standards of condemnation of atrocities in Ukraine and Gaza.
A Trumpian America, not just pushing “America first” but “sod everyone else” as well, will reinforce the appeal of being non-aligned and decrease the credibility of the few states persisting in renting out their sovereignty to the USA.
Consider how it will play if Australia is successful in wheedling for being an exception to Trump’s promise of increased tariffs across the board. There would be a short-term benefit for a relative handful of businesses, but it would underline our status as the wannabe 51st state.
America/Australia – same same.
Geoff Raby, the independently-minded former Australian ambassador to China, has highlighted the contradiction in Australia’s regional foreign policy.
“Australia wants to work with regional neighbours to balance China, while at the same time drawing closer and closer to the US, particularly militarily, to maintain US primacy in the region. However, most of the region is not interested in this latter aspect.
“When Australia’s Foreign Minister speaks of maintaining ‘strategic equilibrium’ in the region, most of the region hears ‘maintaining US primacy’. This is what James Curran refers to as ‘speaking in forked tongues’ to the region.”
Then there is Trump’s pledge to withdraw from the Paris Convention on Climate Change, concentrating instead on “drill, baby, drill”. In such circumstances, Being Deputy Dawg, taking “the lane” the US has given us won’t play well in island nations that take climate change seriously.
The US continues to ignore the International Criminal Court – Trump 1.0 imposed sanctions on it – and the Convention on the Law of the Sea, Trump trashing the World Trade Organisation – a policy continued by Biden – are parts of the American face our neighbours see, but Australia prefers to ignore.
Our diplomatic and security establishment is either so integrated into America-think that they are blind to its faults, or so fearful of Asia that they forgive the US anything in the hope of being shielded by it.
Given Trump’s record, they’re fooling themselves.
Michael Pascoe is an independent journalist and commentator with five decades of experience here and abroad in print, broadcast and online journalism. His book, The Summertime of Our Dreams, is published by Ultimo Press.