Asian stock markets have plunged as fears of a global trade war saw Wall Street futures dive, and investors wagered the mounting risk of recession could see US interest rates cut as early as May.
Futures markets moved swiftly on Monday to price in almost five quarter-point cuts in US rates this year, pulling Treasury yields down sharply and hampering the dollar.
The carnage came as White House officials showed no sign of backing away from their sweeping tariff plans, and China declared the markets had spoken on their retaliation through levies on US goods.
US President Donald Trump told reporters that markets would have to take their medicine and he would not do a deal with China until the US trade deficit was sorted out.
Investors had thought the loss of trillions of dollars in wealth and the likely body blow to the economy would make Trump reconsider his plans.
“The size and disruptive impact of US trade policies, if sustained, would be sufficient to tip a still healthy US and global expansion into recession,” said Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan, putting the risk of a downturn at 60 per cent.
“We continue to expect a first Fed easing in June,” he added.
“However, we now think the Committee cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0 per cent.”
S&P 500 futures slid 4.31 per cent in volatile trade, while Nasdaq futures dived 5.45 per cent, adding to last week’s almost $US6 ($A10) trillion in market losses.
Japan’s Nikkei sank 7.8 per cent to lows last seen in late 2023, while South Korea lost 4.6 per cent.
The gloomier outlook for global growth kept oil prices under heavy pressure, following steep losses last week.
Brent fell $US2.12 ($A3.54) to $US63.46 ($A105.95) a barrel, while US crude dived $US2.05 ($A3.42) to $US59.94 ($A100.07) per barrel.
The flight to safe havens saw Treasury futures surge a full point, a very rare move for Asian trade, while Fed fund futures jumped to price in an extra quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year.
Markets swung to imply around a 63 per cent chance the Fed could cut as soon as May, even though Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank was in no hurry on rates.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped 10 basis points to 3.897 per cent amid the general flight from risk assets.
That dovish turn saw the dollar slip another 0.9 per cent on the safe-haven Japanese yen to 145.59 yen, while the euro held firm at $1.0955.
The dollar shed 1.2 per cent on the Swiss franc to 0.8501, while the trade-exposed Australian dollar dropped a further 0.7 per cent.
Investors were also wagering the imminent threat of recession would outweigh the likely upward shove to inflation from tariffs.
US consumer price figures out later this week are expected to show another rise of 0.3 per cent for March, but analysts assume it is just a matter of time before tariffs push prices sharply higher, for everything from food to cars.
Rising costs will also put pressure on company profit margins, just as the earnings season gets underway with some of the big banks due on Friday. Around 87 per cent of US companies will report between April 11 and May 9.
“We expect during upcoming quarterly earnings calls fewer companies than usual will provide forward guidance for both 2Q and full-year 2025,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.
“Rising tariff rates will force many companies to either raise prices or accept lower profit margins,” they warned.
“We expect negative revisions to consensus profit margin estimates in coming quarters.”
Even gold was swept up in the selloff, easing 0.7 per cent to $US3,013 ($A5,030) an ounce.
The drop left dealers wondering if investors were taking profits where they could to cover losses and margin calls on other assets, in what could turn into a self-feeding fire sale.
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