The Victorian election campaign has reached a rare level of bitterness and intensity. Today, the voters of Australia’s second state will deliver the first test of a Labor government since the federal election and the rise of the independents. The first test of a state Labor government in nearly two years, writes Mark Sawyer.
Victoria’s election has been a bumpy ride for many of the contenders. Weird rumours about Premier Daniel Andrews, a recommendation that Liberal leader Matthew Guy be referred to the corruption watchdog IBAC, threats of jail against independent candidates because of their how-to-vote cards. Then there is some genuinely sordid stuff: anti-Semitism, ugly encounters, death threats and yet more conspiracy madness, fuelled in part by the bruising Covid lockdowns the state endured in 2020 and 2021.
But of more lasting import outside the second biggest state is the ramifications for the nation’s system of parliamentary representation. This will be the first state election since Anthony Albanese and Labor were swept to power six months ago when a full one-third of the electorate put a pox on both Labor and Coalition.
It is also the first re-election campaign for a Labor government since Western Australia’s McGowan government was returned in a landslide in March 2021.
South of the Murray, eyes will not only be on the majors. The Greens are driving deeper into Labor’s inner Melbourne fortresses. The party holds three seats, and wants to add Richmond, Northcote and Albert Park. And the so-called Teal independents, proclaiming the issues of climate action and integrity, are aiming for a repeat of the federal victories on the turf won by Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel in Kooyong and Goldstein.
Then there is another tranche of independents, pitching their campaigns to the less affluent electorates where cost-of-living trumps the Teals’ less material concerns.
This election may be, in other words, the beginning of a huge realignment in state politics. Of course, it may be anything but. There are plenty of moving parts.
Stand with Dan – or shut him down?
The dominating personality is Andrews himself. He is loved and loathed. The cruel commissar of the Covid lockdown, destroyer of jobs? Or the enlightened tribune of the state’s undoubted progressivism? (A treaty with First Nations people, for instance). ”I stand with Dan” went the meme as pressure built on him to reopen businesses. Will Victoria stand with Dan for 12 years?
It’s certainly unlikely the state will revert to the status it enjoyed 40 years ago as the ”jewel in the Liberal crown”. The Coalition was thrashed in 2018, leaving it 18 seats short of majority government in the 88-seat lower house of parliament. But Labor is likely to drop some of its 55 seats, particularly in outer metropolitan areas of Melbourne.
The city’s population explosion has exposed the under-delivery of services. ”Anthony Albanese talked a lot about the western suburbs of Sydney, but I didn’t hear him talk about the western suburbs of Melbourne,” a man in Melton told ABC Radio on Tuesday.
Melton was once a fringe suburb. A 15-minute drive to the west is Bacchus Marsh, with its lush orchards and Avenue of Honour for World War I dead. Bacchus Marsh, 49 kilometres from Melbourne, is no longer strictly rural. Melbourne may soon become Australia’s biggest city, and the infrastructure pressures are acute.
Can the Andrews government cope? Not according to much of the media.
In an editorial on Friday headed “The arrogant or the unprepared? Not an easy choice”, The Age seemed to hedge its bets:
“The Age believes the opposition is simply not ready to govern. It has done little real renewal of personnel or policy in the past four years and has not made a compelling case for change. On most of the policy issues that matter to Victorians, Labor’s are stronger and more coherent.
“But there are dangers in returning Labor. It has become too dominant in this state. It has centralised power and reshaped the bureaucracy in its image. If it wins, it needs to refresh its leadership team, tackle debt, confront significant integrity issues including its internal culture and become more accountable to the public. If it does not do these things, it may be subject to another political truism: parties often win one more election than they should.”
Murdoch and News Corp’s Herald Sun were, unsurprisingly, less circumspect. Under the headline, ‘’A fresh start is needed to unite a divided Victoria’’, it said:
“Given the manifest failures of the past four years, Victoria cannot – financially or politically – afford another term of Labor and Dan Andrews’ divisive leadership.”
News Corp’s national daily, The Australian, proclaimed that “Victorian voters deserve a new government, [a] fresh start.” But by the end of the article, it was hardly making a ringing endorsement of Liberal leader Matthew Guy. It concluded that ‘’voters would be justified in sending [Andrews] the clear message that leaders must be held to account’’.
The other national daily, The Australian Financial Review, was less equivocal. Under the headline, ”Victoria cannot afford more Labor”, the AFR deplored that the state’s $116 billion net public debt has blown out to be the largest among states and territories and that per capita household disposable income now sits second last among states and territories. The scathing editorial proclaimed:
“Sometimes a bad government, especially one headed in an even worse direction than the opposition, just needs to be thrown out of office.”
Pressure at the polling booth
On Friday the Victorian Electoral Commission’s Sue Lang warned that the surge in early voting had indeed created a problem, enough to slow the count, and leave Victorians hanging on for a result at the end of Saturday. A third of the electorate had already voted by Friday, and it was expected that figure would rise to half – or 2 million voters, by the end of the day.
”It is astonishing,” Lang told ABC Radio Melbourne, describing how 1700 voting centres would be staffed on Saturday to count 2 million votes, the same number of ballots assigned to just 155 early voting centres. ‘So that might actually slow the count for us on Saturday night.”
The Teal impact
Federal election ’22 was not only a triumph for Labor. It marked the surge onto the national stage of the climate independents known as the Teals. Money was their friend, but It looks as if money might frustrate the first attempt at creating a Teal bridgehead at state level.
”Victoria’s donation laws are different from those at the federal level,” the Climate 200 website reminds Victorians. Its leading backer Simon Holmes a Court has complained of increased public funding for major parties while individual donations are capped at $4200.
Holmes a Court has lambasted Andrews on environmental issues and electric vehicles, but Climate 200’s targets remain overwhelmingly conservative. It is backing candidates in Mornington, Hawthorn, Kew, Caulfield – seats that have, with one exception, never elected a Labor MP.
That exception is John Kennedy, who won Hawthorn for Labor in 2018. Hawthorn sits ”under” the federal seat of Kooyong, won by Monique Ryan this year. The defeated Liberal member John Pesutto is attempting a comeback. Kennedy has expressed equanimity about losing to a Teal.
David Morris held Mornington for the Liberals with more than half the primary vote in 2018. Mornington is the only one of the four seats that is not within or adjoining a seat won by Teal candidates in May.
Deputy Liberal leader David Southwick held Caulfield with just 50.27% of the 2PP vote, the closest result of the 2018 election. His Teal challenger is Nomi Kaltmann, a ‘’mother, lawyer and journalist’’.
Tim Smith, retiring because of a drink-driving incident, held Kew for the Liberals with a strong primary vote but just 54.78% of the 2PP vote in 2018. The seat has never been out of conservative hands. Kew is located almost entirely within Ryan’s electorate of Kooyong. Teal challenger Sophie Torney ‘’is a businesswoman, community organiser and devoted mother of three’’.
Third time for Andrews?
Liberal leader Matthew Guy presided over a loss of seats for the Coalition in 2018. On Friday, former Labor premier Steve Bracks, admittedly not a totally neutral observer, described the Liberal brand as toxic, citing the infiltration by the religious right.
The major parties have made questionable decisions on the recommendation of preferences (and remember, these are only recommendations). The Coalition is preferencing fringe parties and the Greens, while Labor is helping the Teals. This is likely to depress the representation of the major parties.
A cause for celebration? Maybe, minority government is much beloved by political commentators today, who see it as the route to sensible policy. But they may also grant undue power to fringe players, sometimes disgruntled ex-members of the major parties, who are apt to make unreasonable demands in return for their support.
Mark Sawyer is a journalist with extensive experience in print and digital media in Sydney, Melbourne and rural Australia.