Nationals Leader Matt Canavan says he’s happy to cop regional voters’ concerns “on the chin” as One Nation appears likely to score its first victory in a federal electorate.
Voters in the southern NSW seat of Farrer will head to the polls on Saturday to choose a new MP after their former representative Sussan Ley resigned from parliament.
After spending 23 days campaigning in the regional electorate – including 11 nights sleeping in a swag – Senator Canavan conceded voters were frustrated with a perceived lack of leadership from Canberra.
“There’s no doubt people want to give the political class a kick, and this is a bit of a free kick,” he told AAP the day before the by-election while driving to the town of Corowa, where he planned to deliver donuts to campaign volunteers from all sides.
“Win, lose or draw, the great thing is being here to hear that response, to cop it on the chin, to take my medicine. I’m willing to do that.”
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and a Climate 200-backed independent appear neck and neck to replace the former Liberal leader in the massive regional electorate, but analysts believe preferences could get the populist party over the line while coalition candidates will struggle.
The Nationals leader insisted other regional coalition seats are not at risk to a One Nation surge, arguing there were unique circumstances at play in Farrer.
“By-elections are always different… it’s a totally different race than normal,” he said.
While One Nation candidate David Farley and Independent Michelle Milthorpe appear close in the polls, preferences from coalition voters will improve Mr Farley’s chances of getting over the line, RedBridge pollster Tony Barry told AAP.
“Winning the seat on primary votes would be highly unlikely, but would be a complete boil-over if that were to occur. So preference flows will be critically important,” he said.
“With the coalition preferencing One Nation, they are the intuitive choice to win the seat.”
Polls have shown the Liberals candidate Raissa Butkowski and Nationals’ Brad Robertson trailing far behind.
If One Nation wins, it will show the populist party is a strong electoral force, particularly in regional areas, the former Liberal party strategist said.
“If they cannibalise the Liberal and National Party vote as expected, then it’s a very safe conclusion to say that we’re going to see similar voting behaviours and patterns in other regional seats,” Mr Barry said.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the vote was a test for Senator Canavan and his Liberal counterpart Angus Taylor, and said it would be an extraordinary outcome if the Liberals and Nationals didn’t finish in the top two.
Labor isn’t running a candidate in the by-election.
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