Quantum roadkill? What happens next to Ed Husic’s pet project?

One of the Albanese government’s oddest ventures was joining with Queensland to bet $1 billion on a roughy running in the quantum computing stakes. Michael Pascoe wonders if it could be scratched.

All governments have the occasional rush of blood to the head and pour serious money into dubious projects. AUKUS is the biggest example, but not the only one. In March 2024, Ed Husic convinced the Cabinet to partner with Steven Miles’ Queensland Government in making a long-odds $1 billion bet on PsiQuantum, a little Californian company that keeps claiming it will be the first to build a “utility-scale fault-tolerant” quantum computer.

It is a very strange “investment” made in very strange circumstances in a very strange race.

So far, PsiQuantum’s greatest achievement seems to be extracting money from various governments, with the UK, Illinois, Queensland and Australian taxpayers all chipping in, but none at our scale.

The UK is only risking ($) $17 million on PsiQuantum, thinking it wiser to diversify its bets on the many outfits trying to make quantum computing work. For that sort of money, PsiQuantum is setting up an R&D facility in Warrington.

A really big computer somewhere

For our billion (rounding up from the official $940m), the company has promised to build the very first useful quantum computer in Brisbane at a 100,000 square metre site that’s supposed to be operational by the end of 2027.

But as announced a couple of months after the Down Under deal, PsiQuantum also is promising the first US-based such machine for Chicago’s south side where it is to build a 28,000-square metre “Quantum Computer Operations Centre”, courtesy of US$500m in government incentives.

A senior Chicago-based computer scientist of my acquaintance is scathingly sceptical, and a year after the Brisbane announcement, it looks like the project is already slipping behind schedule.

Besides, with Steven Miles gone, Queensland’s LNP government is reconsidering its commitment. And if Canberra gets cold feet without Ed Husic as the minister pushing his baby, it may not be too late to get out without loss, maybe even at a profit.

In March, PsiQuantum raised US$750m from investors in a transaction that reportedly values the company at US$6B. The AFR reported the Australian bet was at a significantly lower valuation, but there’s no detail of exactly what, nor of the amount of equity involved or what proportion of the loans may be converted into equity, if any.

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Great in theory, but…

PsiQuantum is just one relatively small runner in the crowded quantum race against government and industry giants. It is pushing a different theory to solve the many problems of quantum computing, but it remains a theory.

You wouldn’t guess that from the way PsiQuantum promotes itself. According to the company, it is a sure thing that by 2029 in Brisbane, “PsiQuantum’s first utility-scale system will be in the regime of 1 million physical qubits and hyperscale in footprint with a modular architecture that’s able to leverage existing cryogenic cooling technologies”.

It is not impossible for this dream to come true, but the odds are not good.

As I wrote last year in another place, I’ve been around for a while. In an earlier life I edited a computer magazine in Hong Kong. My first job upon returning to Australia was the IT round for the AFR. I’ve heard lots of promises and spin over the decades. When I hear a CEO make those sorts of promises, I think of Sir Humphrey and “very brave, Minister”.

Still, there are stranger things than the idea of Brisbane quickly developing the necessary workforce and superconductivity skills for quickly building the world’s first big fault-tolerant, commercially viable quantum computer.

There’s the idea of Adelaide building massive, as-yet-undesigned-by-a-committee nuclear-powered submarines.

After throwing Dreyfus and Husic under the right faction bus, Richard Marles is even more firmly ensconced to push his submarine dream, but what new industry minister would want to tie his or her star to a wild bet made by their predecessor?

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Michael Pascoe

Michael Pascoe is an independent journalist and commentator with five decades of experience here and abroad in print, broadcast and online journalism. His book, The Summertime of Our Dreams, is published by Ultimo Press.