China exposes a fundamental flaw in Australia’s nuclear submarine project. While their navy operates off our coast, AUKUS is sapping funds from capabilities needed today. Former submariner Rex Patrick reports.
Many Australians have been disturbed, indeed angered, by Chinese warships operating in our exclusive economic zone over the past weeks. How dare they! But the fact is that the Chinese vessels – a destroyer, a frigate and a replenishment ship – are operating in accordance with international law and simply doing to us what we’ve done to them for decades.
Readers will remember a number of recent incidents in which the Chinese military confronted Australian military assets conducting maritime operations in areas of interest to China.
In April 2018, three Australian Naval vessels operating in international waters off Vietnam were challenged by People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships.
In November 2023, a PLAN warship closed and transmitted sonar pulses at a disabled RAN ANZAC class warship, HMAS Toowoomba, in international waters off Japan. In February this year, a Chinese Air Force J-16 fighter released flares just 30 metres in front of a Royal Australian Air Force P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft.
On all of these occasions, Australia asserted the right of our navy and air force to operate freely in international waters and air space.
Maybe we need to contain our anger!
Strategic takeaways
There are a couple of significant takeaways from the Chinese task group deployment.
The first is that PLAN is no longer a ‘brown-water navy‘. It’s a blue-water navy that can project itself at significant range. In months and years to come, we can expect to see more PLAN warships in Australia’s immediate region and, indeed, in our Exclusive Economic Zone. That’s inevitable.
The second thing to recognise is the fact that our AUKUS submarine strategy is fundamentally flawed.
AUKUS flaw
As the Chinese are operating off the coast of Australia now, we might, and it’s a big might, get our first Virginia Class nuclear-powered submarine in a decade, around 2035.
Whilst Australia embarks on a $368B submarine procurement program, money is being sapped from current programs that would deliver relevant capability now. There is also a huge opportunity cost for procuring other relevant capabilities that could be purchased for near-term delivery.
As PLAN warships were conducting live-fire exercises off the coast of Australia, the only possible contribution that the AUKUS project team could have made in response to it would have been to visually identify those ships by one of its team members flying in a commercial jet over the Tasman Sea en route to another taxpayer-funded junket in Washington.
AUKUS Gravy Plane: $633K a month in flights with the taxpayer picking up the tab
Furthermore, the nuclear submarines we are currently trying to acquire have the capability to operate for extended periods off the coast of China, but that’s simply unnecessary – the PLAN has well and truly arrived off our coast. They’re bringing the party to us. Even a relatively modest PLAN deployment across our sea lanes would keep our modestly sized navy well and truly tied up.
Sure, we might decide to support the defence of Taiwan, a fellow democracy, but having a new submarine turn up in 2035 doesn’t help with a 2027 biffo. And even if we did have a submarine, no one can be sure that the United States would turn up for the fight.
President Trump may well just see the fate of Taiwan as another real estate deal, something to be traded away for the right price.
State of readiness
This PLAN ‘visit’ to Australian waters highlights our current force weakness. Whilst we have been cooperating with New Zealand in shadowing the three-ship task group, we really don’t have much in the way of assets to deal with the PLAN’s enhanced capabilities.
Indeed, the Chief of Defence Force has advised the Senate that, despite having a budget this financial year of $58B, it was a Virgin Australian pilot that first advised the Australian Government that the PLAN was conducting live-fire exercises off the east coast.
Our current order of battle is of great concern, noting the growing geopolitical tension in our regions.
We have a couple of relatively modern Air Warfare Destroyers available to the Australian Fleet Commander. But that’s where the good news ends. Only six of our seven 20 to 30-year-old ANZAC frigates are in the water, and it is not known how many of them are operationally worked up to respond to the PLAN.
The Chief of Defence Force, Admiral Johnston, advised the Senate that two ANZAC frigates have been involved in shadowing the task group.
In terms of our six aging Collins class submarines, only three are in the “custody” of the Navy, as described by the Chief of Navy, Vice Admiral Hammond, to the Senate. It’s not clear how many are worked up for tasking. The Navy won’t say.
Indeed, it might just be best for the Navy to keep that number under wraps because the number might be just too embarrassing and a positive invitation to the PLAN to come down under more often.
The Department of Defence has proved incompetent in procuring ships. The future frigate program is an exemplar of that procurement failure. First, it was $30B for 9 ships, then $45B for 9 ships, then $45B for just 6 ships, and there’ll be no new ships delivered to the Navy until 2032.
There is a tender underway for a new off-the-shelf general-purpose frigate, which has a target date for the first delivery of 2029. On-time delivery is not common for Defence projects.
Dumb Ways to Buy: Defence “shambles” unveiled – former submariner and senator Rex Patrick
Alliance fracture
As the PLAN sail west through the Great Australia Bight and off into the distance, some Australians might breathe out and slump back into the traditional ‘she’ll be right’ attitude.
However, with Donald Trump’s re-accession to the US throne, there have been significant changes that one might hope Government and Defence would be paying attention to.
The world is changing rapidly. In just the past few weeks, we’ve seen President Trump floating the idea of a forced taking of the Panama Canal and Greenland in an assault on the norms of rules-based international order.
We’ve also seen the United States Administration cuddling up to Russia in relation to the invasion of Ukraine. There is talk in Europe of the United States walking away from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
There are openly expressed concerns about the reliability of the United States as an ally.
As President Trump shifts his focus to the North American continent in a radical reorientation of US defence policy, Fortress America, it seems Australia needs to be asking the same questions as the Europeans.
Stand on our own
Two decades ago, Australia had a capable, flexible defence force configured for the defence of Australia with the option of expeditionary deployments where our capabilities complemented a multinational operation.
The current plan on record has abandoned that sovereign goal and focussed on total integration with the US armed forces.
Our forces are now so integrated with and reliant upon the US military that not only is our capability to defend Australia gravely weakened but our own sovereign decision-making is compromised.
Maybe it’s not just the Chinese that have done us a favour with their task group deployment. President Trump is helping out too.
Australia needs to abandon its bankrupting $368B all-eggs-in-one-basket monolithic AUKUS nuclear submarine program and get back to Defence basics. We need a modern, capable, flexible and self-reliant Defence force that can meet our own sovereign needs. That is entirely achievable and affordable, provided we make the right decisions now.
AUKUS Opportunity Cost Example (Source: Rex Patrick)
Rex Patrick is a former Senator for South Australia and earlier a submariner in the armed forces. Best known as an anti-corruption and transparency crusader, Rex is running for the Senate on the Lambie Network ticket next year - www.transparencywarrior.com.au.