As Labor replaces Premier Jacinta Allan, One Nation is in the ascendancy and may join the Liberals to form government in Victoria. Andrew Gardiner reports.
Victoria’s new Premier, Ben Carroll, has his work cut out. With just four months to go before Election Day (November 28), Labour’s Carroll must navigate a minefield of negative headlines around corruption, crime and cost-of-living issues aggravated by the government’s profligate spending.
In her final media conference, outgoing Premier Jacinta Allan spoke of the impact if he fails to do so. “The biggest risk at this election (is) a One Nation-Liberal coalition government that will cut $40 billion from our hospitals and our schools”.
But it goes further than that. As the first government expected, on current poll numbers, Victoria could find itself the proverbial canary in the coal mine of untested far-right policies.
And far right it would be. Observers say a government alliance between Liberal MPs (half of whom are reportedly aligned with the party’s conservative/religious-right faction) and One Nation will usher in seismic shifts on everything from infrastructure to crime to what our kids are taught in classrooms, if recent announcements are any guide.
One Nation policies
On infrastructure, both the Liberals ($) and One Nation have been openly hostile to the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL), a project which has quadrupled in cost since its announcement, but would nonetheless improve commute times and provide decentralisation relief for Australia’s biggest urban sprawl. The cost of abandoning the project could be in the billions ($) for work already done, including penalty payouts.
Crime has been a lightning rod for voters driven to what is often unfounded, racially motivated fear by a concerted media campaign, triggering a race between One Nation, Liberal and Labor itself for who can appear toughest on youth crime. One Nation wants strict sentencing and bail guidelines, more youth detention facilities and “courts (which) prioritise community safety over … welfare or rehabilitation prospects”.
Criminologists and activists have long warned against harsh punishments for the sake of votes, which traumatise young offenders, lead to their re-offending and, therefore, “do not improve community safety”.
Culture wars
Not only will schools face likely budget cuts under a prospective One Nation-Liberal state government, but if One Nation gets its way, they’ll bring back “mandatory Australian history studies which support and champion our British settler history (and) strip the curriculum of any ideological or politically-biased material”.
Political bias (and the disputed ‘benefits’ of British colonisation) are in the eye of the beholder, which generally means society leaves such questions in the hands of experts, not politicians. “For Aboriginal people, colonisation was a violent process. (The word) settlement obscures the violence, and implies that it was peaceful, and the land was vacant,” teacher, historian and activist Elizabeth Muldoon said ($).
Cost blow-outs
While some may baulk at the prospect of a One-Nation-Liberal government, there’s little doubt Labor brought its current conundrum upon itself. Total cost blowouts across Victoria’s major “Big Build” infrastructure projects have surpassed $40B, a figure which climbs substantially higher when factoring in early work on the SRL’s first stage.
This blow-out happened amid reports of widespread corruption around the Big Build, and cost-of-living pressures which have many Victorians calling for an end to the government’s “vanity projects”. Polling aggregators have the current numbers – some of which precede a recent spate of adverse Big Build corruption coverage – at
Labor 28%, Coalition 30%, One Nation 20% and Greens 13%.
But observers say the Liberals are over-performing in Victoria (compared to the rest of the country), pointing out that One Nation hasn’t yet found its feet or nominated candidates, meaning the party could enjoy a bounce (likely at the Coalition’s expense) in coming weeks.
If Australia-wide numbers are any guide, the Nationals face what experts call Armageddon in the Victorian bush, leaving the Liberals eyeing negotiations with One Nation for possible government.
The same aggregators have the two-party preferred vote at 50-50, suggesting it’s still close, depending on how that plays out seat-by-seat. Labor too could find itself in negotiations with Greens and independent cross-benchers, not only on government but on the passage of legislation.
Independents with role to play
Climate 200-backed Community independent candidates Sophie Torney and Shima Ibuki can be genuine contenders in the electorates of Kew and Hawthorn,
Another is Aleta Moriarty, who is running for Western Region, 77,777 square km of land from Geelong to the SA border. While the aspiring Upper House member may not be a part of any negotiations about forming government, her positions aren’t dissimilar to those of the Greens or so-called ‘Teals’ on issues such as crime and its causes.
“If someone offers easy answers, like cutting migration or getting tough on crime, to complex problems without talking about education, healthcare, transport, adequate return for natural resources, environmental management, infrastructure and jobs, they are selling frustration, not solutions.
Lasting change comes from tackling the causes of disadvantage, not exploiting its consequences”, Aleta, CEO of the Centre for Sustainability and a veteran of senior positions at the UN, told MWM.
“People across regional Victoria are hurting (via) the cost of living … and while regional Victorians make up almost a quarter of our population, they receive only around 14% of government infrastructure investment.
The grievance is real,
and this has been fertile ground for One Nation (but) grievance alone is not a solution”.
If Ben Carroll ekes out a close result (without having the numbers for government) and Labor wants to somehow hang onto power in Victoria, it will have to negotiate with people not unlike Aleta, offering significant concessions instead of the hard-ball, “bullying” tactics he dished out to teachers as Education Minister earlier this month.
Carroll may be well advised to recall how respect for cross-benchers, as opposed to contempt, is what made Steve Bracks Premier over the abrasive Jeff Kennett in 1999.
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An Adelaide-based graduate in Media Studies, with a Masters in Social Policy, I was an editor who covered current affairs, local government and sports for various publications before deciding on a change-of-vocation in 2002.